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Labor market participation, unemployment and monetary policy

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  • Campolmi, Alessia
  • Gnocchi, Stefano

Abstract

Models of unemployment and monetary policy usually assume constant participation. Incorporating a participation decision into a standard New Keynesian model with matching frictions, we show that market tightness becomes endogenously more volatile because both the opportunity cost of home production and the reservation wage vary with participation. The model can simultaneously explain the low volatility of participation, the high volatility of unemployment, and a procyclical workers׳ outside option of working. A policy of strict inflation targeting is close to optimal, and increasing the response of the interest rate to inflation does not have a large impact on the volatility of unemployment because of the endogenous response of participation.

Suggested Citation

  • Campolmi, Alessia & Gnocchi, Stefano, 2016. "Labor market participation, unemployment and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 17-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:79:y:2016:i:c:p:17-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.03.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Dolado, Juan J. & Motyovszki, Gergö & Pappa, Evi, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity," IZA Discussion Papers 11494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Daniela Hauser & Martin Seneca, 2019. "Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union," Staff Working Papers 19-15, Bank of Canada.
    4. Kónya, István, 2016. "Munkapiaci áramlások Magyarországon és Európában
      [Labour-market flows in Hungary and Europe]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 357-379.
    5. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2018. "Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 274-292.
    6. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Jiang, Wei & Malley, James, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-67, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Bermperoglu, Dimitrios & Pappa, Evi & Vella, Eugenia, 2013. "Spending-based austerity measures and their effects on output and unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    9. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    10. Tüzemen, Didem, 2017. "Labor market dynamics with endogenous labor force participation and on-the-job search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-51.
    11. Pappa, Evi & Sajedi, Rana & Vella, Eugenia, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 56-75.
    12. Jin, Keyu & Li, Nan, 2018. "International transmission with heterogeneous sectors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88189, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Alessia Campolmi & Ester Faia & Roland Winkler, 2011. "Fiscal Calculus in a New Keynesian Model with Labor Market Frictions," MNB Working Papers 2011/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Epstein, Brendan, 2018. "Labor Force Participation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 88776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. István Konya, 2016. "Labor flows in Hungary and Europe," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1602, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    16. Carnicelli, Lauro, 2018. "Financial shocks and endogenous labor market participation," MPRA Paper 90254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    18. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Wei Jiang & James Malley, 2017. "Targeted fiscal policy to increase employment and wages of unskilled workers," Studies in Economics 1704, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Yuelin Liu, 2014. "Endogenous Labor Force Participation, Involuntary Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2014-41, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. Matteo Salto, 2016. "Fiscal Policy after the Crisis – Workshop Proceedings," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 035, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    22. Claudio Cesaroni, 2017. "Optimal Long-Run Inflation and the Informal Economy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 46, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Matching frictions; Endogenous participation; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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