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Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model

Listed author(s):
  • Adolfson, Malin

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Laseén, Stefan

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Lindé, Jesper

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden and CEPR)

  • Svensson, Lars E.O.

    ()

    (Central Bank of Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden, Princeton University, CEPR and NBER)

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank’s openeconomy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports that the model may be regarded as structural in a stable low inflation environment. Past policy of the Riksbank until 2007:3 (the end of the sample used) is better explained as following a simple instrument rule than as optimal policy under commitment. We show and discuss the differences between policy projections for the estimated instrument rule and for optimal policy under commitment, under alternative definitions of the output gap, different initial values of the Lagrange multipliers representing policy in a timeless perspective, and different weights in the central-bank loss function.

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File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2008/wp225_technappx.pdf
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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 225.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2008
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0225
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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  1. Malin Adolfson & Jesper Linde & Mattias Villani, 2007. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy DSGE Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 289-328.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
  3. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
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  9. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper, 2011. "Parameter Identification in a Estimated New Keynesian Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 251, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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  12. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide & Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  18. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium‐Sized DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1287-1331, October.
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  28. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  33. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Chapters,in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 274-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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