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Stabilization policy and the costs of dollarization

  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
  • Martin Uribe

This paper compares the welfare costs of business cycles in a dollarized economy to those arising in economies with different monetary arrangements. The alternative monetary policy regimes studied belong to three broad families: devaluation rate rules, inflation targeting, and money growth rate rules. The analysis is conducted within an optimizing model of a small open economy with sticky prices. The model is calibrated to the Mexican economy and is driven by three external shocks: terms of trade, world interest rate, and import-price inflation. We show econometrically that these shocks explain at a minimum 45 percent of the observed forecasting error variance of Mexican output and the Mexican real exchange rate at 8- to 16-quarter horizons. The model fits the data relatively well in the sense that it can account for the volatility and comovements of key macroeconomic indicators such as output, consumption, inflation, and the real exchange rate. The welfare comparisons suggest that dollarization is the least successful of the monetary policy rules considered: agents are willing to give up between 0.1 and 0.3 percent of their nonstochastic steady-state consumption to see a policy other than dollarization implemented.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 482-517

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:2001:p:482-517
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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kimbrough, Kent P., 1986. "The optimum quantity of money rule in the theory of public finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 277-284, November.
  5. Kamin, Steven B. & Rogers, John H., 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 285-307, November.
  6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1995. "The international transmission of economic fluctuations: effects of U. S. business cycles on the Canadian economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-6, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  9. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim, 1999. "Inaccuracy of Loglinear Approximation in Welfare Calculations: the Case of International Risk Sharing," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 251, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Sbordone, A.M., 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: a New Test of Price Stickiness," Papers 653, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  11. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  12. Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2000. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? the case of Mexico," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," MPRA Paper 13898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  15. Marianne Baxter & Mario J. Crucini, 1994. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 4975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February.
  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Af1uencia de capital y apreciacion del tipo de cambio real en America Latina: E1 papel de los factores externos
    [Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of Ex
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  18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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