IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2010_03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Simple rules versus optimal policy: what fits?

Author

Listed:
  • Ida Wolden Bache

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Leif Brubakk

    () (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Junior Maih

    () (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

We estimate a small open-economy DSGE model for Norway with two specifications of monetary policy: a simple instrument rule and optimal policy based on an intertemporal loss function. The empirical fit of the model with optimal policy is as good as the model with a simple rule. This result is robust to allowing for misspecification following the DSGE-VAR approach proposed by Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004). The interest rate forecasts from the DSGE-VARs are close to Norges Bank's official forecasts since 2005. One interpretation is that the DSGE-VAR approximates the judgment imposed by the policymakers in the forecasting process.

Suggested Citation

  • Ida Wolden Bache & Leif Brubakk & Junior Maih, 2010. "Simple rules versus optimal policy: what fits?," Working Paper 2010/03, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2010_03
    Note: First version:
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2010/WP-201003/
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; forecasting; optimal monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2010_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.