My JEL codes
Follow this JEL code
Research classified by Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes
Top JEL
/ C: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
/ / C5: Econometric Modeling
/ / / C53: Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This JEL code is mentioned in the following RePEc Biblio entries:
This topic is covered by the following reading lists:
2025
- Abbas, Yasser & Daouia, Abdelaati & Nemouchi, Boutheina & Stupfler, Gilles, 2025. "Tail expectile-VaR estimation in the semiparametric Generalized Pareto model," TSE Working Papers 25-1607, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Daanish Padha, 2025. "Forecasting Using Supervised Factors and Idiosyncratic Elements," Working Papers 202502, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Robert Stehrer & Stella Sophie Zilian, 2025. "Beschäftigungswirkungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft und demografische Szenarien," wiiw Research Reports in German language 30, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Simon Tranberg Bodilsen & Asger Lunde, 2025. "Exploiting News Analytics for Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 18-36, January.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2025. "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 57-73, January.
- Emile du Plessis & Ulrich Fritsche, 2025.
"New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 3-40, January.
- du Plessis, Emile & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2022. "New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 67, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
- Robert Stehrer & Stella Zilian, 2025. "Beschäftigungswirkungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft und demografische Szenarien," FIW Research Reports series RR-01-25-, FIW.
- Verona, Fabio, 2025. "From waves to rates: Enhancing inflation forecasts through combinations of frequency-domain models," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2025, Bank of Finland.
- Yuying Sun & Feng Chen & Jiti Gao, 2025. "Model Averaging for Time-Varying Vector Autoregressions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/25, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Mikhail Chernov & Vadim Elenev & Dongho Song, 2025. "The Comovement of Voter Preferences: Insights from U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Beyond Polls," NBER Working Papers 33339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zhouyu Shen & Dacheng Xiu, 2025. "Can Machines Learn Weak Signals?," NBER Working Papers 33421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oriol Gonzalez-Casasus & Frank Schorfheide, 2025. "Misspecification-Robust Shrinkage and Selection for VAR Forecasts and IRFs," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Li, Chenxing & Yang, Qiao, 2025. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with GARCH for Short-Term Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 123200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Magomedov, Said & Fantazzini, Dean, 2025. "Modeling and Forecasting the Probability of Crypto-Exchange Closures: A Forecast Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 123416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Harashima, Taiji, 2025. "Numerical Simulation of Economic Inequality Widened by the Persistent Effects of Temporary Rent Income," MPRA Paper 123557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lixiong Yang & Mingjian Ren & Jianming Bai, 2025. "Threshold mixed data sampling logit model with an application to forecasting US bank failures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 433-477, January.
- Jean-Paul Chavas, 2025. "Stochastic instability: a dynamic quantile approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 485-509, February.
- Yong-Hyong Kim & Song-Jun Ham & Chong-Sim Ri & Won-Hyok Kim & Wi-Song Ri, 2025. "Application of empirical wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, gravitational search algorithm and long short-term memory neural network to copper price forecasting," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 24(1), pages 151-169, January.
- Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim & Soohyon Kim, 2025. "Asymmetric Roles of Macroeconomic Variables in the Real Exchange Rate: Insights from U.S.-Korea Data," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2025-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Yash Chawla & Katarzyna Chojnacka & Michal Paca & Anna Pudelko & Przemysław Zaleski & Rafal Weron, 2025. "Cost-benefit analysis of a municipal waste management project: Using a survey of professional forecasters to provide reliable projections until 2035," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/25/01, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Yunus Emre Gür & Ahmet İhsan Şimşek & Emre Bulut, 2025. "Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Machine Learning Methods For Forecasting Green Bond Index: A Comparative Analysis," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 9(4), pages 628-655.
- Savaş Gayaker, 2025. "Türkiye'de Ekonomik Şoklar ve Krizler Bağlamında Enflasyon Öngörüsü: XGBOOST ve ARMA Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırması," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 9(4), pages 877-895.
- Rodrigo García Arancibia & Ignacio Girela & Daniela Agostina Gonzalez, 2025. "Global Multidimensional Poverty Prediction using World Development Indicators," Working Papers 350, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
- Stéphane Surprenant, 2025. "Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 25-4, Bank of Canada.
- Matteo Mogliani & Florens Odendahl, 2025. "Density forecast transformations," Working Papers 2511, Banco de España.
- Giuseppe Cascarino & Federica Ciocchetta & Stefano Pietrosanti & Ivan Quaglia, 2025. "Forecasting corporate default probabilities: a local logit approach for scenario analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 909, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Shihan Xie, 2025. "Overconfidence in Private Information Explains Biases in Professional Forecasts," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_617, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
- Congressional Budget Office, 2025. "The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024," Reports 60885, Congressional Budget Office.
- Bryan T. Kelly & Semyon Malamud & Emil Siriwardane & Hongyu Wu, 2025. "Behavioral Impulse Responses," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 25-04, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Etienne Briand & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2025. "Inflation, Attention and Expectations," CIRANO Working Papers 2025s-01, CIRANO.
- Marco Guerzoni & Luigi Riso & Maria Grazia Zoia, 2025. "Forecasting the Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Electricity Prices in Italy: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Enhanced Variable Selection," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0043, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
- Robert-Paul Berben & Rajni Rasiawan & Jasper de Winter, 2025. "Forecasting Dutch inflation using machine learning methods," Working Papers 828, DNB.
- Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2025. "Judgment can spur long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
- Lian, Zeng & Chen, Liang & Tan, Hongru, 2025. "How NAFTA affected U.S. vehicle emissions: Demand growth and usage patterns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Wang, Nianling & Wang, Qianchao & Li, Yong, 2025. "Estimation and forecast of carbon emission market volatility based on model averaging method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Qiu, Yue & Qu, Shaoguang & Shi, Zhentao & Xie, Tian, 2025. "Predicting cryptocurrency volatility: The power of model clustering," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
- Luo, Jiawen & Chen, Zhenbiao & Cheng, Mingmian, 2025. "Forecasting realized betas using predictors indicating structural breaks and asymmetric risk effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
- Agakishiev, Ilyas & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Kopa, Milos & Kozmik, Karel & Petukhina, Alla, 2025. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices with trading applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2025. "The tail risk premium in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Wang, Zhengzhong & Wei, Yunjie & Wang, Shouyang, 2025. "Forecasting the carbon price of China's national carbon market: A novel dynamic interval-valued framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Zhao, Dongshuai & Wang, Zhongli & Schweizer-Gamborino, Florian & Sornette, Didier, 2025. "Polytope Fraud Theory," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Wen, Danyan, 2025. "Model specification for volatility forecasting benchmark," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- Hu, Nan & Yin, Xuebao & Yao, Yuhang, 2025. "A novel HAR-type realized volatility forecasting model using graph neural network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
- Feng, Guanhao & He, Xin & Wang, Yanchu & Wu, Chunchi, 2025. "Predicting individual corporate bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
- Amendola, Marco & Pereira, Marcelo C., 2025. "State-dependent impulse responses in agent-based models: A new methodology and an economic application," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
- Mertzanis, Charilaos & Kampouris, Ilias & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2025. "Climate change and U.S. Corporate bond market activity: A machine learning approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
- Thomas Persson, 2025. "Machine Learning Methods," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 68(2), pages 106-129.
- Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian & Taylor, Alex. P, 2025. "An information-theoretic asset pricing model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Briola, Antonio & Bartolucci, Silvia & Aste, Tomaso, 2025. "HLOB–Information persistence and structure in limit order books," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126623, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Andrea Bastianin & Xiao Li & Luqman Shamsudin, 2025. "Forecasting the Volatility of Energy Transition Metals," Working Papers 2025.04, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Dobrislav Dobrev & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2025. "Missing Data Substitution for Enhanced Robust Filtering and Forecasting in Linear State-Space Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robin Braun & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2025. "Nonparametric Time Varying IV-SVARs: Estimation and Inference," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Enerstvedt, Vegard, 2025. "The Cost of Weather: Modeling Weather Delay in Bulk Shipping," Discussion Papers 2025/4, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
- Emmanouil Sofianos & Christos Alexakis & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2025. "Machine learning forecasting in the macroeconomic environment: the case of the US output gap," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 1-19, February.
2024
- Kim, Sunjin & Park, Daehyeon & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Potential sanctions on the Northeast Asia supergrid: A network theory perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
- Wen, Danyan & Wang, Huihui & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong, 2024. "Crude oil futures and the short-term price predictability of petroleum products," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
- He, Mengxi & Zhang, Zhikai & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil prices with global ocean temperatures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
- Hong, Yun & Yao, Youfu, 2024. "Can comment letters impact excess perks? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Zhang, Jiaming & Xiang, Yitian & Zou, Yang & Guo, Songlin, 2024. "Volatility forecasting of Chinese energy market: Which uncertainty have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Bouazizi, Tarek & Guesmi, Khaled & Galariotis, Emilios & Vigne, Samuel A., 2024. "Crude oil prices in times of crisis: The role of Covid-19 and historical events," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Teng, Huei-Wen & Kang, Ming-Hsuan & Lee, I-Han & Bai, Le-Chi, 2024. "Bridging accuracy and interpretability: A rescaled cluster-then-predict approach for enhanced credit scoring," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Wang, Yuejing & Ye, Wuyi & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Volatility prediction for the energy sector with economic determinants: Evidence from a hybrid model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
- Qiu, Zhiguo & Lazar, Emese & Nakata, Keiichi, 2024. "VaR and ES forecasting via recurrent neural network-based stateful models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
- Ghosh, Indranil & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García-Rubio, Noelia, 2024. "Reflections of public perception of Russia-Ukraine conflict and Metaverse on the financial outlook of Metaverse coins: Fresh evidence from Reddit sentiment analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
- Heger, Julia & Min, Aleksey & Zagst, Rudi, 2024. "Analyzing credit spread changes using explainable artificial intelligence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
- Huang, Yujun, 2024. "Do ESG ETFs provide downside risk protection during Covid-19? Evidence from forecast combination models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
- Bouazizi, Tarek & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Makrychoriti, Panagiota, 2024. "Evolving energies: Analyzing stability amidst recent challenges in the natural gas market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
- Moffo, Ahmadou Mustapha Fonton, 2024. "A machine learning approach in stress testing US bank holding companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
- Ben Hamida, Amal & de Peretti, Christian & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2024. "The link between abnormal numbers and price movements of financial securities: How does Benford’s law predict stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
- Yang, Ni & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Indriawan, Ivan, 2024. "Spillover between investor sentiment and volatility: The role of social media," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
- Zhang, Xiaoyun & Guo, Qiang, 2024. "How useful are energy-related uncertainty for oil price volatility forecasting?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
- Baruník, Jozef & Hanus, Luboš, 2024. "Fan charts in era of big data and learning," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
- Liu, Dinggao & Chen, Kaijie & Cai, Yi & Tang, Zhenpeng, 2024. "Interpretable EU ETS Phase 4 prices forecasting based on deep generative data augmentation approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
- Tang, Wenjin & Bu, Hui & Zuo, Yuan & Wu, Junjie, 2024. "Unlocking the power of the topic content in news headlines: BERTopic for predicting Chinese corporate bond defaults," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
- Kirtac, Kemal & Germano, Guido, 2024.
"Sentiment trading with large language models,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
- Kirtac, Kemal & Germano, Guido, 2024. "Sentiment trading with large language models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122592, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kemal Kirtac & Guido Germano, 2024. "Sentiment trading with large language models," Papers 2412.19245, arXiv.org.
- Li, Wei & Zhang, Junchao & Cao, Xiangye & Han, Wei, 2024. "Is the prediction of precious metal market volatility influenced by internet searches regarding uncertainty?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
- Ma, Feng & Lyu, Zhichong & Li, Haibo, 2024. "Can ChatGPT predict Chinese equity premiums?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
- Chen, Zhenlong & Liu, Junjie & Hao, Xiaozhen, 2024. "Can the ‘good-bad’ volatility and the leverage effect improve the prediction of cryptocurrency volatility?—Evidence from SHARV-MGJR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024.
"Energy market uncertainties and exchange rate volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202418, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Göncü, Ahmet & Kuzubaş, Tolga U. & Saltoğlu, Burak, 2024. "Predicting oil prices: A comparative analysis of machine learning and image recognition algorithms for trend prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
- Nguyen, Hien Thi & Nguyen, Hoang & Tran, Minh-Ngoc, 2024. "Deep learning enhanced volatility modeling with covariates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Liu, Wei-han & Xu, Xingfu, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil price: A deep forest ensemble approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Polat, Onur, 2024.
"Forecasting U.S. recessions using over 150 years of data: Stock-market moments versus oil-market moments,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions Using Over 150 Years of Data: Stock-Market Moments versus Oil-Market Moments," Working Papers 202435, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Wang, Qi & Zhang, Li, 2024. "Are natural resource volatility curses or blessings for economic performance? Stories of resource-rich regions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2024.
"What charge-off rates are predictable by macroeconomic latent factors?,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2024. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2024-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," MPRA Paper 116880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Biswas, Rita & Loungani, Prakash & Liang, Zhongwen & Michaelides, Michael, 2024. "Linkages between financial and macroeconomic indicators in emerging markets and developing economies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Steinmetz, Julia & Jentsch, Carsten, 2024. "Bootstrap consistency for the Mack bootstrap," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 83-121.
- Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024.
"Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
- Santino Del Fava & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Lavinia Rognone, 2023. "Forecasting International Financial Stress: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202329, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Huang, Zih-Chun & Sangiorgi, Ivan & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin volatility using machine learning techniques," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2024. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility: An amalgamation approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
- Iseringhausen, Martin, 2024.
"A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 229-246.
- Martin Iseringhausen, 2021. "A time-varying skewness model for Growth-at-Risk," Working Papers 49, European Stability Mechanism.
- Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024.
"Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
- Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Regime-Switching GARCH-MIDAS: The Role of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 202203, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024.
"Forecast reconciliation: A review,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Forecast Reconciliation: A Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2024.
"Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 626-640.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates," Working Papers 22-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024.
"Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2024.
"The profitability of lead–lag arbitrage at high frequency,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1002-1021.
- Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2022. "The Profitability of Lead-Lag Arbitrage at High-Frequency," Working Papers 22-5, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
- Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2024.
"Out-of-sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1166-1178.
- Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2020. "Out of sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates," UC3M Working papers. Economics 31554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Jesus Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2023. "Out of Sample Predictability in Predictive Regressions with Many Predictor Candidates," Papers 2302.02866, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
- Joseph, Andreas & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Kapetanios, George, 2024.
"Forecasting UK inflation bottom up,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1521-1538.
- Joseph, Andreas & Kalamara, Eleni & Kapetanios, George & Potjagailo, Galina & Chakraborty, Chiranjit, 2021. "Forecasting UK inflation bottom up," Bank of England working papers 915, Bank of England, revised 27 Sep 2022.
- Berrisch, Jonathan & Ziel, Florian, 2024. "Multivariate probabilistic CRPS learning with an application to day-ahead electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1568-1586.
- Gibbs, Christopher G. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2024.
"Conditionally optimal weights and forward-looking approaches to combining forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1734-1751.
- Christopher G. Gibbs & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Conditionally Optimal Weights and Forward-Looking Approaches to Combining Forecasts," Discussion Papers 2017-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Fritzsch, Simon & Timphus, Maike & Weiß, Gregor, 2024. "Marginals versus copulas: Which account for more model risk in multivariate risk forecasting?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
- Cheng, Hang & Guo, Hui & Shi, Yongdong, 2024. "Multifactor conditional equity premium model: Evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
- Cao, Cong, 2024. "How to better predict the effect of urban traffic and weather on air pollution? Norwegian evidence from machine learning approaches," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 544-569.
- Zhang, Li & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Wang, Lu & Damette, Olivier, 2024. "Measuring the impact of climate risk on renewable energy stock volatility: A case study of G20 economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 168-184.
- Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 338-354.
- Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
- Xiao, Wei, 2024. "Initial anchors and limited information in learning-to-forecast experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 192-227.
- Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
- Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Li, Yan, 2024.
"The out-of-sample performance of carry trades,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Wang, Zigan, 2020. "The Out-of-Sample Performance of Carry Trades," CEPR Discussion Papers 15052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hecq, Alain & Issler, João Victor & Voisin, Elisa, 2024.
"A short term credibility index for central banks under inflation targeting: An application to Brazil,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Alain Hecq & Joao Issler & Elisa Voisin, 2022. "A short term credibility index for central banks under inflation targeting: an application to Brazil," Papers 2205.00924, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
- Bei, Zeyun & Lin, Juan & Zhou, Yinggang, 2024. "No safe haven, only diversification and contagion — Intraday evidence around the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
- Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel, 2024. "Forecasting the price of oil: A cautionary note," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
- Lazar, Emese & Pan, Jingqi & Wang, Shixuan, 2024. "On the estimation of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall at extreme levels," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
- Ma, Tian & Li, Ganghui & Zhang, Huajing, 2024. "Stock return predictability using economic narrative: Evidence from energy sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
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"Financial stress and realized volatility: The case of agricultural commodities,"
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"Global Economic Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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"Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness,"
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"Bayesian Markov switching model for BRICS currencies' exchange rates,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2322-2340, September.
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"A Bayesian vector-autoregressive application with time-varying parameters on the monetary shocks–production network nexus,"
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"Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting,"
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"Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world,"
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"What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts,"
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"The Anatomy of Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
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"Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts,"
School of Economics Working Paper Series
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"Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts,"
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"Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts,"
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"Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years,"
Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
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"Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data,"
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- Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
- Narum, Benjamin S. & Berentsen, Geir D., 2024. "Joint Forecasting of Salmon Lice and Treatment Interventions in Aquaculture Operations," Discussion Papers 2024/7, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
- Shchestyuk, Nataliya & Tyshchenkob, Sergii, 2024. "Subdiffusive option price model with Inverse Gaussian subordinator," Working Papers 2024:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Pettersson, Nicklas & Kelemen, Katalin, 2024. "Yet another case of Nordic exceptionalism?: A quantitative approach to an intra-Nordic and an international comparison of supreme courts’ constitutional reasoning," Working Papers 2024:7, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Kim Karlsson, Hyunjoo & Li, Yushu, 2024. "Investigation of Swedish krona exchange rate volatility by APARCH-Support Vector Regression," Working Papers in Economics and Statistics 10/2024, Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics.
- HARA, Naoko & YAMAMOTO, Yohei, 2024. "Testing and Quantifying Economic Resilience," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-142, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
- Alison W. Baulos & Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman, 2024.
"Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?,"
NBER Working Papers
32972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alison Baulos & Jorge Luis Garcia & James J. Heckman, 2024. "Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?," Working Papers 2024-019, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
- J. van den Berg, Gerard & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2023.
"Predicting re-employment: machine learning versus assessments by unemployed workers and by their caseworkers,"
Working Paper Series
2023:22, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2024. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning Versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," IAB-Discussion Paper 202403, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Max Kunaschk & Julia Lang & Gesine Stephan & Arne Uhlendorf, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning Versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," Working Papers 2023-09, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," IZA Discussion Papers 16426, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Bjarni G. Einarsson, 2024. "Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality," Economics wp95, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
- Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Jennifer Doherty-Bigara & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2024.
"Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Doherty-Bigara, Jennifer & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13478, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Doherty-Bigara, J. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2420, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Doherty-Bigara, J. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2414, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Benítez, Miguel & Parrado, Eric, 2024. "Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Which Jobs Will AI Replace After All?: A New Index of Occupational Exposure," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13696, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Kaustubh & Soumya Bhadury & Saurabh Ghosh, 2024. "Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Postpandemic Period: A Case Study For India," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 27(Spesial I), pages 95-130, Februari.
- Gabriel, Stefan & Kunst, Robert M., 2024. "Cointegrated portfolios and volatility modeling in the cryptocurrency market," IHS Working Paper Series 52, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Cullen S. Hendrix, 2024. "The El Nino Southern Oscillation and Geopolitical Risk," Working Paper Series WP24-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Mahir Binici & Samuele Centorrino & Serhan Cevik & Gyowon Gwon, 2024.
"Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 237-290, April.
- Mahir Binici & Samuele Centorrino & Mr. Serhan Cevik & Gyowon Gwon, 2022. "Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2022/241, International Monetary Fund.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2024.
"Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 275-320, October.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Schorfheide, Frank & Song, Dongho, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 16760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," Working Papers 20-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 29535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ferdinand Fichtner & Heike Joebges, 2024. "Stock market returns and GDP growth," IMK Studies 90-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Helena Chuliá & Sabuhi Khalili & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Monitoring time-varying systemic risk in sovereign debt and currency markets with generative AI," IREA Working Papers 202402, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
- Huo, Shutong & Feng, Derek & Gill, Thomas M. & Chen, Xi, 2024.
"Childhood Circumstances and Health of American and Chinese Older Adults: A Machine Learning Evaluation of Inequality of Opportunity in Health,"
GLO Discussion Paper Series
1384, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
- Huo, Shutong & Feng, Derek & Gill, Thomas M. & Chen, Xi, 2024. "Childhood Circumstances and Health of American and Chinese Older Adults: A Machine Learning Evaluation of Inequality of Opportunity in Health," IZA Discussion Papers 16764, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Davide Fiaschi & Cristina Tealdi, 2024.
"Let's roll back! The challenging task of regulating temporary contracts,"
Papers
2401.17971, arXiv.org.
- Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2024. "Let's Roll Back! The Challenging Task of Regulating Temporary Contracts," IZA Discussion Papers 16777, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Kumar, Pradeep & Nicodemo, Catia & Oreffice, Sonia & Quintana-Domeque, Climent, 2024. "Machine Learning and Multiple Abortions," IZA Discussion Papers 17046, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Hyee, Raphaela & Immervoll, Herwig & Fernandez, Rodrigo & Lee, Jongmi & Handscomb, Karl, 2024. "How Reliable Are Social Safety Nets in Situations of Acute Economic Need? Extended Estimates for 14 OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 17477, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- TORI Athina & GJECI Ardit & KUFO Andromahi, 2024. "Emerging from the Storm: Forecasting Bank Loan Quality in the Aftermath of COVID-19," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
- Ali Mehrabani, 2024. "Stein-Like Shrinkage Estimators for Coefficients of a Single-Equation in Simultaneous Equation Systems," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202414, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Zongwu Cai & Gunawan & Yuying Sun, 2024. "A New Nonparametric Combination Forecasting with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202412, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2024.
- Peter J. Zeitsch, 2024. "Convertible Bond Arbitrage Smart Beta," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 159-192, January.
- Dibyendu Maiti & Naveen Kumar & Debajit Jha & Soumyadipta Sarkar, 2024. "Post-COVID Recovery and Long-Run Forecasting of Indian GDP with Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model (FECM)," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1095-1120, March.
- Pierre Rostan & Alexandra Rostan & John Wall, 2024. "Measuring the Resilience to the Covid-19 Pandemic of Eurozone Economies with Their 2050 Forecasts," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1157, March.
- Helong Li & Guanglong Xu & Qin Huang & Rubin Ruan & Weiguo Zhang, 2024. "COVID-19 Impact on Stock Markets: A Multiscale Event Analysis Perspective," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1191-1212, March.
- Yamin Ahmad & Adam Check & Ming Chien Lo, 2024. "Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Comparison of Classical, Bayesian and Machine Learning Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(6), pages 2139-2173, June.
- Efstathios Polyzos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2024. "Autoregressive Random Forests: Machine Learning and Lag Selection for Financial Research," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 225-262, July.
- Aparna Gupta & Vipula Rawte & Mohammed J. Zaki, 2024. "Predicting Firm Financial Performance from SEC Filing Changes Using Automatically Generated Dictionary," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 307-334, July.
- Rebecca Westphal & Didier Sornette, 2024. "How Market Intervention can Prevent Bubbles and Crashes: An Agent Based Modelling Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1315-1356, September.
- Maolin Cheng & Bin Liu, 2024. "Quarterly Data Forecasting Method Based on Extended Grey GM(2, 1, Σsin) Model and Its Application in China’s Quarterly GDP Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2385-2412, October.
- Shun Chen & Lingling Guo & Lei Ge, 2024. "Increasing the Hong Kong Stock Market Predictability: A Temporal Convolutional Network Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2853-2878, November.
- Aykut Ekinci & Safa Sen, 2024. "Forecasting Bank Failure in the U.S.: A Cost-Sensitive Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3161-3179, December.
- Jie Cheng, 2024. "Evaluating Density Forecasts Using Weighted Multivariate Scores in a Risk Management Context," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3617-3643, December.
- Andrea Baldin & Trine Bille & Raghava Rao Mukkamala & Ravi Vatrapu, 2024. "The impact of social media activities on theater demand," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 48(2), pages 199-220, June.
- Batuhan Kilic & Onur Can Bayrak & Fatih Gülgen & Mert Gurturk & Perihan Abay, 2024. "Unveiling the impact of machine learning algorithms on the quality of online geocoding services: a case study using COVID-19 data," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 601-622, October.
- Michael Allan Ribers & Hannes Ullrich, 2024. "Complementarities between algorithmic and human decision-making: The case of antibiotic prescribing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 445-483, December.
- Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello & Stefano Filomeni & Alessandra Tanda & Barbara Tarantino, 2024. "Can we trust machine learning to predict the credit risk of small businesses?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 925-954, October.
- Chuxuan Xiao & Winifred Huang & David P. Newton, 2024. "Predicting expected idiosyncratic volatility: Empirical evidence from ARFIMA, HAR, and EGARCH models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 979-1006, October.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Petre Caraiani, 2024.
"Oil shocks and state-level stock market volatility of the United States: a GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1473-1510, November.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Petre Caraiani, 2023. "Oil Shocks and State-Level Stock Market Volatility of the United States: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202327, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Csizmadia, Péter & Kosztyán, Zsolt Tibor & Fehérvölgyi, Beáta & Hausz, Frigyes, 2024. "Intézményi koncentráció és az innovációs hálózatok vizsgálata [Institutional concentration and innovation networks]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1351-1380.
- Bachmann Ronald & Boockmann Bernhard & Vonnahme Christina & Wiemann Jan Simon, 2024. "Internationale Dateninnovationen: Potenziale für die deutsche Arbeitsmarkt- und Sozialpolitik," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-23, May.
- Paulo Barbosa & João Cortes & João Amador, 2024. "Distance to Export: A Machine Learning Approach with Portuguese Firms," GEE Papers 182, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jul 2024.
- David Cronin & Niall McInerney, 2024. "Institutional Quality and Official Budgetary Forecast Performance in EU Member States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 80(2), pages 165-192.
- Caravaggio, Nicola & Resce, Giuliano & Idola Francesca, Spanò, 2024. "Is Local Taxation Predictable? A Machine Learning Approach," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp24098, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
- Tomasz Piotr Kostyra, 2024. "Forecasting the yield curve for Poland with the PCA and machine learning," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 55(4), pages 459-478.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024.
"Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory,"
Papers
2403.11016, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2024. "Comprehensive OOS Evaluation of Predictive Algorithms with Statistical Decision Theory," NBER Working Papers 32269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Huber, Florian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2024.
"Risky Oil: It's All in the Tails,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
19129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024. "Risky Oil: It's All in the Tails," NBER Working Papers 32524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024.
"Filtering with Limited Information,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
24-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," NBER Working Papers 32754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 11243, CESifo.
- Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron, Pablo & Oosthuizen, Dick, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 19270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alison Baulos & Jorge Luis Garcia & James J. Heckman, 2024.
"Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?,"
Working Papers
2024-019, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
- Alison W. Baulos & Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman, 2024. "Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?," NBER Working Papers 32972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Calvo & Vincent Pons & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections," NBER Working Papers 33016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ruslan Goyenko & Bryan T. Kelly & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Yinan Su & Chao Zhang, 2024. "Trading Volume Alpha," NBER Working Papers 33037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Iva Glišic, 2024. "A comparison of using MIDAS and LSTM models for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers Bulletin 22, National Bank of Serbia.
- A. Bourgeois & B. Favetto, 2024. "Construction d’intervalles de confiance et relecture du passe avec le modèle Mesange," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-07, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
- Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023.
"Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach,"
Working Paper Series
2830, European Central Bank.
- M. Lenza & I. Moutachaker & I. Moutachaker, 2024. "Density forecasts of inflation : a quantile regression forest approach," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-12, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
- Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 18298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- A. Quartier-La-Tente, 2024. "Utilisation de modèles de regression à coefficients variant dans le temps pour la prevision conjoncturelle," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers 2024-16, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
- Lagesh Meethale Aravalath & Subhendu Dutta, 2024. "Forecasting World Food Price Volatility: Performance of the GARCH Model with Different Distributions Assumptions," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 120-141, March.
- Tsvetan Tsvetkov, 2024. "An Innovative Approach for Vulnerability Assessment of a Nuclear Facility’s Physical Protection System," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 829-845, December.
- Raphaela Hyee & Herwig Immervoll & Rodrigo Fernández & Jongmi Lee & Karl Handscomb, 2024. "How reliable are social safety nets in situations of acute economic need?: Extended estimates for 14 OECD countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 317, OECD Publishing.
- Fabrice Murtin & Max Salomon-Ermel, 2024. "Nowcasting subjective well-being with Google Trends: A meta-learning approach," OECD Papers on Well-being and Inequalities 27, OECD Publishing.
- Ștefan RUSU & Marcel BOLOȘ, 2024. "Machine Learning Clustering In Financial Markets: A Literature Review," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 330-336, July.
- Ke-Li Xu & Junjie Guo, 2024. "A New Test for Multiple Predictive Regression," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 119-156.
- Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Enzo D’Innocenzo & Andrea Guizzardi, 2024. "Score-Driven Modeling with Jumps: An Application to S&P500 Returns and Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 375-406.
- Chao Zhang & Yihuang Zhang & Mihai Cucuringu & Zhongmin Qian, 2024. "Volatility Forecasting with Machine Learning and Intraday Commonality," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 492-530.
- Donggyu Kim & Minseog Oh & Xinyu Song & Yazhen Wang, 2024. "Factor Overnight GARCH-Itô Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1209-1235.
- Jesús Gil Jaime & Jose Olmo, 2024. "Measuring and Testing Systemic Risk from the Cross-Section of Stock Returns†," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 1503-1531.
- Sebastian Denk & Gunter Löffler, 2024. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Combination Forecasts: A Reappraisal," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 545-577.
- Yufeng Han & Ai He & David E Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2024. "Cross-sectional expected returns: new Fama–MacBeth regressions in the era of machine learning," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(6), pages 1807-1831.
- Vipul Kumar Singh & Pawan Kumar, 2024. "Effectiveness of deterministic option pricing models: new evidence from Nifty and Bank Nifty Index options," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(2), pages 172-189, March.
- Sakai Ando & Taehoon Kim, 2024. "Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting: High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(4), pages 1386-1410, December.
- Manuel Monge, 2024. "Trends and persistence in global olive oil prices after COVID-19," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 481-488, October.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024.
"Filtering with Limited Information,"
NBER Working Papers
32754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 11243, CESifo.
- Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron, Pablo & Oosthuizen, Dick, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 19270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maria S. Mavillonio, 2024. "Textual Representation of Business Plans and Firm Success," Discussion Papers 2024/308, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
- Caterina Giannetti & Maria Saveria Mavillonio, 2024. "Crowdfunding Success: Human Insights vs Algorithmic Textual Extraction," Discussion Papers 2024/315, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
- Silva Lopes, Artur, 2024. "Assessing Income Convergence with a Long-Run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results," MPRA Paper 120143, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2022.
- Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2024. "Прогнозирование Основных Российских Макроэкономических Показателей С Помощью Tvp-Модели С Байесовским Сжатием Параметров [Forecasting key Russian macroeconomic variables using a TVP model with Baye," MPRA Paper 120170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frank, Luis, 2024. "Proyección del Consumo Privado de Argentina por medio de un Modelo de Corrección de Errores [Projection of Argentina's Private Consumption through an Error Correction Model]," MPRA Paper 121181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dean Fantazzini, 2024.
"Adaptive Conformal Inference for Computing Market Risk Measures: An Analysis with Four Thousand Crypto-Assets,"
JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-44, June.
- Fantazzini, Dean, 2024. "Adaptive Conformal Inference for computing Market Risk Measures: an Analysis with Four Thousands Crypto-Assets," MPRA Paper 121214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giorgos Foutzopoulos & Nikolaos Pandis & Michail Tsagris, 2024.
"Predicting Full Retirement Attainment of NBA Players,"
Working Papers
2403, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Foutzopoulos, Giorgos & Pandis, Nikolaos & Tsagris, Michail, 2024. "Predicting full retirement attainment of NBA players," MPRA Paper 121540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mahmood, Asif & Ali, Ringchan, 2024. "A Measure of Financial Conditions for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 121952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yang, Linge, 2024. "Shaping the USDA Agriculture Innovation Agenda: Addressing Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution from A Point Source Perspective," MPRA Paper 122265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cherkashin, Alexander & Sakhadzhi, Vladislav & Guliev, Ruslan & Bolshunova, Elena, 2024. "Practical Methods for Predicting Customer Retention," MPRA Paper 122400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Черкашин, Александр & Сахаджи, Владислав & Гулиев, Руслан & Большунова, Елена, 2024. "Практические Методы Прогнозирования Сохранения Клиентской Базы (Перевод На Русский Язык) [Practical Methods for Predicting Customer Retention]," MPRA Paper 122483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elshin, Leonid & Mingulov, Almaz & Mikhalevich, Polina, 2024.
"Эмпирическая Оценка Влияния Экспортно-Импортных Операций На Экономический Рост Регионов Рф В Условиях Внешнего Давления [Empirical assessment of the impact of export-import operations on the econom,"
MPRA Paper
122580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elshin, Leonid & Mikhalevich, Polina & Mingulov, Almaz, 2024. "Эмпирическая Оценка Влияния Экспортно-Импортных Операций На Экономический Рост Регионов Рф В Условиях Внешнего Давления [Empirical assessment of the impact of export-import operations on the econom," MPRA Paper 122704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elshin, Leonid & Mingulov, Almaz & Mikhalevich, Polina, 2024. "Оценка Перспектив Устойчивого Развития Регионов Рф В Условиях Ограничения Экспортно-Импортных Операций С Кнр [Assessment of the Prospects for Sustainable Development of Russian Regions in the Conte," MPRA Paper 122705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elshin, Leonid & Mingulov, Almaz & Mikhalevich, Polina, 2024. "Потенциал Замедления Экономики Регионов В Условиях Локализации Внешнеэкономической Деятельности С Кнр [Potential for a slowdown in regional economies in the context of localization of foreign econo," MPRA Paper 122706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elshin, Leonid & Mikhalevich, Polina & Mingulov, Almaz, 2024. "Прогностическая Оценка Устойчивого Развития Импортозависимых Секторов Экономики Региона В Условиях Внешнего Давления [Forecast assessment of sustainable development of import-dependent sectors of t," MPRA Paper 122707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Katsafados, Apostolos G. & Leledakis, George N. & Panagiotou, Nikolaos P. & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G., 2024. "Can central bankers’ talk predict bank stock returns? A machine learning approach," MPRA Paper 122899, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Korobova, Elena & Fantazzini, Dean, 2024. "Stablecoins and credit risk: when do they stop being stable?," MPRA Paper 122951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Growth-at-Risk of the United States: Housing Price versus Housing Sentiment or Attention," Working Papers 202401, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Petre Caraiani & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Predicting the Conditional Distribution of US Stock Market Systemic Stress: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202407, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Realized US Stock Market Volatility: Is there a Role for Economic Policy Uncertainty?," Working Papers 202408, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E.Oghonna & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and US State-Level Stock Market Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202409, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bruno Tag Sales & Hudson Da Silva Torrent & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Forecasting Real Housing Price Returns of the United States using Machine Learning: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202412, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Political Geography and Stock Market Volatility: The Role of Political Alignment across Sentiment Regimes," Working Papers 202414, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Foglia & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Long-Span Multi-Layer Spillovers between Moments of Advanced Equity Markets: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202415, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024.
"Energy market uncertainties and exchange rate volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202418, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Jiawen Luo & Shengjie Fu & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of US Inflation: Evidence from Dynamic Quantile Model Averaging," Working Papers 202420, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Thanoj K. Muddana & Komal S.R. Bhimireddy & Anandamayee Majumdar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Forecasting Gold Returns Volatility Over 1258-2023: The Role of Moments," Working Papers 202421, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Multi-Task Forecasting of the Realized Volatilities of Agricultural Commodity Prices,"
Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-26, September.
- Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Multi-Task Forecasting of the Realized Volatilities of Agricultural Commodity Prices," Working Papers 202423, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Asingamaanda Liphadzi & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Forecasting Stock Returns Volatility of the G7 Over Centuries: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202424, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta, 2023.
"GARCHX-NoVaS: A Model-free Approach to Incorporate Exogenous Variables,"
Papers
2308.13346, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
- Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "GARCHX-NoVaS: A Model-Free Approach to Incorporate Exogenous Variables," Working Papers 202425, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2024. "Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States," Working Papers 202427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress: Evidence for China," Working Papers 202428, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Oil Returns Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202429, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Sisa Shiba, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and Gold Return Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202431, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Climate Risks and Prediction of Sectoral REITs Volatility: International Evidence," Working Papers 202434, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Polat, Onur, 2024.
"Forecasting U.S. recessions using over 150 years of data: Stock-market moments versus oil-market moments,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions Using Over 150 Years of Data: Stock-Market Moments versus Oil-Market Moments," Working Papers 202435, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024.
"Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years,"
Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
- Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024. "Climate Risks and Real Gold Returns over 750 Years," Working Papers 202436, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- V. Candila & O. Cepni & G. M. Gallo & R. Gupta, 2024.
"Influence of Local and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the volatility of US state-level equity returns: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach with Shrinkage and Cluster Analysis,"
Working Paper CRENoS
202414, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Vincenzo Candila & Oguzhan Cepni & Giampiero M. Gallo & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Influence of Local and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Volatility of US State-Level Equity Returns: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Shrinkage and Cluster Analysis," Working Papers 202437, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- O-Chia Chuang & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Buliao Shu, 2024. "Financial Uncertainty and Gold Market Volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Variable Selection," Working Papers 202441, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bank-Level Stock Returns Volatility of the United States: A Mixed-Frequency Perspective," Working Papers 202444, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Andrea Kolková, 2024. "Data Analysis in Demand Forecasting: A Case Study of Poetry Book Sales in the European Area," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(5), pages 51-69.
- Qi Shi, 2024. "The Second RP-PCA Factor and Crude Oil Price Predictability," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(6), pages 662-690.
- Oktay Özkan & Babatunde Sunday Eweade & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2024. "Examining the Effects of Energy Efficiency R&D and Renewable Energy on Environmental Sustainability Amidst Political Risk in France," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(2), pages 331-356.
- Ayaz Zeynalov, 2024. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Russian Macroeconomic Performance," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(4), pages 676-701.
- Oktay Özkan & Babatunde Sunday Eweade & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2024. "Examining the Effects of Energy Efficiency R&D and Renewable Energy on Environmental Sustainability Amidst Political Risk in France," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(Spec.issu), pages 331-356.
- Randall Romero-Aguilar, 2024. "Una propuesta para medir el ciclo economico," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 21(1), pages 39-58, January-J.
- Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024.
"Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator,"
Working Papers
2024-15, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2024-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Tenorio, Juan & Perez, Wilder, 2024. "GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Working Papers 2024-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Fernando Pérez Forero, 2024. "Forecasting Peruvian Monetary Aggregates in a Nonlinear and Uncertain Environment," Working Papers 2024-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Fernando Pérez Forero, 2024. "Exploring the presence of Nonlinearities in the Peruvian Economy - Monetary Policy Implications," Working Papers 2024-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Patra, Saswat & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2024. "Charting the Unknown: First Passage Time Probabilities for Pearson Diffusion Process and Application to Options Risk Management," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 27(2), pages 623-639, November.
- Jaitang, Chalerm & Li, Zhaohua & Gan, Christopher, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of Private SMEs' Insolvency in Thailand Using Machine Learning," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 31(2), pages 1-30, July-Dece.
- Bronitsky, Georgy & Vakulenko, Elena, 2024. "Using Google Trends to forecast migration from Russia: Search query aggregation and accounting for lag structure," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 73, pages 78-101.
- Astafyeva, Ekaterina & Turuntseva, Marina, 2024. "Forecast evaluation improving using the simplest methods of individual forecasts’ combination," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 78-103.
- Mikitchuk, Marina, 2024. "Forming the benefit-oriented official assistance: Cross-country analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 124-143.
- Skrobotov, Anton, 2024. "Time series forecasting under structural breaks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 76, pages 120-139.
- Czock, Berit Hanna & Frings, Cordelia & Arnold, Fabian, 2024. "Cost and cost distribution of policy-driven investments in decentralized heating systems in residential buildings in Germany," EWI Working Papers 2024-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
- Beiranvand, Morteza & Malek Sadati, Seyed Saeed & Razmi, Seyed Mohammad Javad, 2024. "Nowcasting Iran's GDP Using Sentiment Analysis of Economic News," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 11(3), pages 135-164, June.
- Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2024. "The Role of the European Directive on Renewable Energy Consumption in Reducing Pollution in CEE Countries from the European Union," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-21, July.
- Taoxiong Liu & Huolan Cheng, 2024. "Can The Classical Economic Model Improve The Performance Of Deep Learning? A GDP Forecasting Example," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 86-110, July.
- Xianning WANG & Xikai HUANG & Longkun TIAN & Huiyan ZHOU, 2024. "Can the Futures Price of Agricultural Products Predict the Scale of China's Agricultural Production?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 128-143, December.
- Pablo Pincheira-BROWN & Nicolás HARDY, 2024. "More predictable than ever, with the worst MSPE ever," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-30, December.
- Vlad TEODORESCU & Catalina-Ioana TOADER, 2024. "Using Machine Learning to Model Bankruptcy Risk in Listed Companies," PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania, vol. 6(1), pages 610-619, August.
- Ignace De Vos & Gerdie Everaert, 2024. "GLS Estimation of Local Projections: Trading Robustness for Efficiency," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1095, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Paramita Mukherjee & Dipankor Coondoo & Poulomi Lahiri, 2024. "Forecasting Hourly Spot Prices in Indian Electricity Market," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 12(3), pages 273-295, December.
- Renáta K?e?ková & Daniela ?álková & Radka Procházková & Sergyi Yekimov, 2024. "Macroeconomics And Tourism Demand: Evaluating The Role Of Economic Indicators In The Czech Republic?S Hospitality Industry," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14516470, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
- Milen Arro-Cannarsa & Rolf Scheufele, 2024. "Nowcasting GDP: what are the gains from machine learning algorithms?," Working Papers 2024-06, Swiss National Bank.
- Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2024. "Forecasting in the presence of in-sample and out-of-sample breaks," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, in: Subal C. Kumbhakar & Robin C. Sickles & Hung-Jen Wang (ed.), Advances in Applied Econometrics, pages 545-579, Springer.
- Sami Ben Jabeur & Salma Mefteh-Wali & Jean-Laurent Viviani, 2024. "Forecasting gold price with the XGBoost algorithm and SHAP interaction values," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 679-699, March.
- Mehdi Mili & Jean‐Michel Sahut & Frédéric Teulon & Lubica Hikkerova, 2024. "A multidimensional Bayesian model to test the impact of investor sentiment on equity premium," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 919-939, March.
- Daniel Goller & Sandro Heiniger, 2024.
"A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests,"
Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(1), pages 71-93, October.
- Goller, Daniel & Heiniger, Sandro, 2022. "A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests," Economics Working Paper Series 2204, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
- Patrick Oliver Schenk & Christoph Kern, 2024. "Connecting algorithmic fairness to quality dimensions in machine learning in official statistics and survey production," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 18(2), pages 131-184, June.
- Andrey Shternshis & Piero Mazzarisi, 2024. "Variance of entropy for testing time-varying regimes with an application to meme stocks," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 47(1), pages 215-258, June.
- Ewelina Osowska & Piotr Wójcik, 2024. "Predicting the reaction of financial markets to Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statements," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 145-175, March.
- Pål Boug & Håvard Hungnes & Takamitsu Kurita, 2024.
"The empirical modelling of house prices and debt revisited: a policy-oriented perspective,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 369-404, January.
- Pål Boug & Håvard Hungnes & Takamitsu Kurita, 2021. "The empirical modelling of house prices and debt revisited. A policy-oriented perspective," Discussion Papers 967, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Zirui Guo & Yihan Li & Guangyan Jia, 2024. "Research on the effectiveness of the volatility–tail risk-managed portfolios in China’s market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1191-1222, March.
- Thomas F. P. Wiesen & Paul M. Beaumont, 2024. "A joint impulse response function for vector autoregressive models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1553-1585, April.
- Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024.
"Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
- Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2021. "Holding the Economy by the Tail: Analysis of Short- and Long-run Macroeconomic Risks," Working Papers 2021/3, Czech National Bank.
- Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang, 2024. "Forecasting the equity premium using weighted regressions: Does the jump variation help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(5), pages 2049-2082, May.
- Huawei Niu & Tianyu Liu, 2024. "Forecasting the volatility of European Union allowance futures with macroeconomic variables using the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 75-96, July.
- Robert Lehmann, 2024.
"A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 817-838, August.
- Robert Lehmann, 2023. "READ-GER: Introducing German Real-Time Regional Accounts Data for Revision Analysis and Nowcasting," CESifo Working Paper Series 10315, CESifo.
- Nima Nonejad, 2024. "Point forecasts of the price of crude oil: an attempt to “beat” the end-of-month random-walk benchmark," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1497-1539, October.
- Fameliti Stavroula & Skintzi Vasiliki, 2024. "Macroeconomic attention and commodity market volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 1967-2007, November.
- Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
- Aktham Maghyereh & Salem Adel Ziadat, 2024. "Pattern and determinants of tail-risk transmission between cryptocurrency markets: new evidence from recent crisis episodes," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
- Xiaozhen Jing & Dezhong Xu & Bin Li & Tarlok Singh, 2024. "Does the U.S. extreme indicator matter in stock markets? International evidence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
- Blanco-Oliver Antonio & Lara-Rubio Juan & Irimia-Diéguez Ana & Liébana-Cabanillas Francisco, 2024. "Examining user behavior with machine learning for effective mobile peer-to-peer payment adoption," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, December.
- Malvina Marchese & María Dolores Martínez-Miranda & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2024. "Robustifying and simplifying high-dimensional regression with applications to yearly stock return and telematics data," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
- Fred Espen Benth & Carlo Sgarra, 2024. "A Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with leverage in Hilbert space for commodity forward markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 1035-1076, October.
- Ioannis Sitzimis, 2024. "Forecasting methods in Greek coastal shipping: The case of Southwest Crete," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
- Leila Hedhili Zaier & Khaled Mokni & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2024. "Causality relationships between climate policy uncertainty, renewable energy stocks, and oil prices: a mixed-frequency causality analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
- Sandra Dreher & Sebastian Eichfelder & Felix Noth, 2024. "Does IFRS information on tax loss carryforwards and negative performance improve predictions of earnings and cash flows?," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 1-39, January.
- J. Peter Leo Deepak & Yavana Rani Subramanian & J. Josephine Lalitha & K. Vidhya, 2024. "Optimum Level of Currency Reserves: Investigation and Forecasting of Indian Rupee Using ARIMA Model," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 137-150, August.
- Jörg Döpke & Tim Köhler & Lars Tegtmeier, 2024. "Are they worth it? – An evaluation of predictions for NBA ‘Fantasy Sports’," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(1), pages 142-165, March.
- Isaac K. Ofori & Camara K. Obeng & Simplice A. Asongu, 2024.
"What Really Drives Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from the Lasso Regularization and Inferential Techniques,"
Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 144-179, March.
- Isaac K. Ofori & Camara K. Obeng & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "What Really Drives Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from The Lasso Regularization and Inferential Techniques," Working Papers 22/061, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
- Isaac K. Ofori & Camara K. Obeng & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "What Really Drives Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from The Lasso Regularization and Inferential Techniques," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/061, African Governance and Development Institute..
- Dervis Kirikkaleli & Fusun Celebi Boz & Melike Torun, 2024. "Do Economic and Financial Stabilities Matter for Political Stability in Estonia?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15202-15217, September.
- Filip Lubinski, 2024. "Book review. J. Doyne Farmer, Making Sense of Chaos. A Better Economics for a Better World, Penguin (2024), pp. 364," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 1013-1017, December.
- Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska, 2024. "Accuracy of small area mortality prediction methods: evidence from Poland," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-20, March.
- Gavin Ooft & Sailesh Bhaghoe & Philip Hans Franses, 2024. "Forecasting Annual Inflation Using Weekly Money Supply," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(1), pages 25-43, March.
- Kristian Jönsson, 2024. "Neighbor Weighting and Distance Metrics in Nearest Neighbor Nowcasting of Swedish GDP," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(4), pages 1077-1089, December.
- Seyed Farshid Ghorashi & Maziyar Bahri & Atousa Goodarzi, 2024. "Developing and comparing machine learning approaches for predicting insurance penetration rates based on each country," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29, December.
- Claudia Ceci & Michele Bufalo & Giuseppe Orlando, 2024. "Modelling the industrial production of electric and gas utilities through the $$CIR^3$$ C I R 3 model," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 18, number 1, February.
- Giorgio Gnecco & Sara Landi & Massimo Riccaboni, 2024. "The emergence of social soft skill needs in the post COVID-19 era," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 647-680, February.
- Afees Salisu & Sulaiman Salisu & Subair Salisu, 2024.
"A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria,"
Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4987-5002, October.
- Salisu, Afees & Salisu, Sulaiman & Salisu, Subair, 2023. "A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 119539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Aug 2023.
- Chris Reimann, 2024. "Predicting financial crises: an evaluation of machine learning algorithms and model explainability for early warning systems," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 51-83, June.
- Diego Fresoli, 2024. "Spanish GDP short-term point and density forecasting using a mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 145-177, June.
- Philipp Wegmueller & Christian Glocker, 2024. "Capturing Swiss economic confidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-17, December.
- Riadh Trabelsi, 2024. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Tunisia: a structural VAR approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(10), pages 1-28, October.
- M’bakob Gilles Brice & Mandeng ma Ntamack Jules, 2024. "Influence of psychological exchange rates (PER) on forex price formation: theory, empirical, and experimental evidence," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(9), pages 1-53, September.
- Kazım Berk Küçüklerli & Veysel Ulusoy, 2024. "Sentiment-Driven Exchange Rate Forecasting: Integrating Twitter Analysis with Economic Indicators," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 1-4.
- Pål Boug & Håvard Hungnes & Takamitsu Kurita, 2024. "Getting Back on Track. Forecasting After Extreme Observations," Discussion Papers 1018, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Joana Katina & Joana Katina & Igor Katin & Igor Katin & Vera Komarova, 2024. "Cryptocurrency price forecasting: a comparative analysis of autoregressive and recurrent neural network models," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 11(4), pages 425-436, June.
- Givi Bedianashvili & Murman Tsartsidze & Nino Mikeladze & Zviad Gabroshvili, 2024. "Human capital and economic growth under modern globalization," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 12(1), pages 268-289, September.
- Yasin Mimir & Lorenzo Ricci, 2024. "Financial imbalances and macroeconomic tail risks: A structural regime-switching investigation," Working Papers 64, European Stability Mechanism, revised 15 Nov 2024.
- Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024.
"Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2024-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," Working Papers 2024-15, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Matteo Iacopini, 2024.
"Bayesian Markov-Switching Tensor Regression for Time-Varying Networks,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 119(545), pages 109-121, January.
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- Liu Yang & Kajal Lahiri & Adrian Pagan, 2024.
"Getting the ROC into Sync,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 109-121, January.
- Liu Yang & Kajal Lahiri & Adrian Pagans, 2022. "Getting the ROC into Sync," CAMA Working Papers 2022-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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"A Simple Correction for Misspecification in Trend-Cycle Decompositions with an Application to Estimating r,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 665-680, April.
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- Davide Delle Monache & Andrea De Polis & Ivan Petrella, 2024.
"Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 1010-1025, July.
- Delle Monache, Davide & De Polis, Andrea & Petrella, Ivan, 2021. "Modeling and forecasting macroeconomic downside risk," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1324, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Delle Monache, Davide & De Polis, Andrea & Petrella, Ivan, 2022. "Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 15109, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1155-1168, October.
- Ardia, David & Dufays, Arnaud & Ordás Criado, Carlos, 2023. "Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods," MPRA Paper 119486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024.
"Investigating Growth-at-Risk Using a Multicountry Nonparametric Quantile Factor Model,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1302-1317, October.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model," Papers 2110.03411, arXiv.org.
- Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2023. "Investigating Growth-at-Risk Using a Multicountry Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 18549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Todd Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model," Working Papers 2307, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Mihaela Simionescu & Nicolas Schneider & Beata Gavurova, 2024.
"A Bayesian vector-autoregressive application with time-varying parameters on the monetary shocks–production network nexus,"
Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 2395114-239, December.
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- Salih Zeki Atilgan & Tarik Aydogdu & Mehmet Selman Colak & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2024. "Anticipating Credit Developments with Regularization and Shrinkage Methods: Evidence for Turkish Banking Industry," Working Papers 2402, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Anne Opschoor & Dewi Peerlings & Luca Rossini & Andre Lucas, 2024. "Density Forecasting for Electricity Prices under Tail Heterogeneity with the t-Riesz Distribution," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-049/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Gabriele Mingoli, 2024. "Modeling Common Bubbles: A Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamic Factor Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Pierluigi Vallarino, 2024. "Dynamic kernel models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-082/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2024.
"Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1403-1417, September.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 21-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 09 Aug 2021.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea & Mertens, Elmar, 2021. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 15964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Felix Haase, 2024. "Sum-of-the-Parts Revised: Economic Regimes and Flexible Probabilities," Research Papers in Economics 2024-10, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
- Fayssal Jamhamed & Franck Martin & Fabien Rondeau & Josué Thélissaint & Stéphane Tufféry, 2024. "Regime-Specific Dynamics and Informational Efficiency in Cryptomarkets: Evidence from Gaussian Mixture Models," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2024-13, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Tao Wang, 2024. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments," Working Papers 202412, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Francisco Rapetti & Patricio Yunis, 2024. "The Role of Consumer Sentiment in the Stock Market: A Multivariate Dynamic Mixture Model with Threshold Effects," Department of Economics Working Papers 2024_01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Nicola Spagnolo & Patricio Yunis, 2024. "Predictive Accuracy of Impulse Responses Estimated Using Local Projections and Vector Autoregressions," Department of Economics Working Papers 2024_02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Elena G. Shershneva, 2024. "CAMELS parameters’ impact on the risk of losing financial stability: The case of Russian banks," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 130-152, July.
- HABIBI, Reza, 2024. "A Note On The Early Warning System Of Change Points: Combination Of Regime Switching And Threshold Models," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 28(2), pages 6-18, June.
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- Yordan Petkov, 2024. "Forecasting The Number Of Human Resources In The Organization Using Markov Chains," INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL CONFERENCE "HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT", University of Economics - Varna, issue 1, pages 80-88.
- Svetlana Todorova, 2024. "Hedonic Modelling of Real Estate Prices in Varna," Stroitelno predpriemachestvo i nedvizhima sobstvenost = Construction Entrepreneurship and Real Property, University of Economics Varna, issue 1, pages 65-79.
- Mirescu Lucian & Popescu Liviu, 2024. "Forecasts of Performance Indicators in the Health System Using the Arima Method," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22.
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"Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting,"
Papers
2404.01866, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
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"LSTM-ARIMA as a Hybrid Approach in Algorithmic Investment Strategies,"
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2406.18206, arXiv.org.
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- Maciej Wysocki & Robert 'Slepaczuk, 2024.
"Construction and Hedging of Equity Index Options Portfolios,"
Papers
2407.13908, arXiv.org.
- Maciej Wysocki & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024. "Construction and Hedging of Equity Index Options Portfolios," Working Papers 2024-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Stanisław Łaniewski & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024. "Enhancing literature review with NLP methods Algorithmic investment strategies case," Working Papers 2024-16, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Filip Stefaniuk & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024. "Informer in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on High Frequency Bitcoin Data," Working Papers 2024-27, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Vasily Astrov & Artem Kochnev & Vincent Stamer & Feodora Teti, 2024. "The Russian Economy Amidst the War and Sanctions," Russia Monitor 1, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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"Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 66-85, January.
- Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Manganelli, Simone, 2019. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Working Paper Series 2330, European Central Bank.
- Jia Liu & John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2024.
"Identification and forecasting of bull and bear markets using multivariate returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 723-745, August.
- Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2023. "Identification and Forecasting of Bull and Bear Markets using Multivariate Returns," MPRA Paper 119515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024.
"Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
- James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
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"Fast and order‐invariant inference in Bayesian VARs with nonparametric shocks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1301-1320, November.
- Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Fast and Order-invariant Inference in Bayesian VARs with Non-Parametric Shocks," Papers 2305.16827, arXiv.org.
- Florian Huber & Gary Koop, 2023. "Fast and Order-invariant Inference in Bayesian VARs with Non-Parametric Shocks," Working Papers 2309, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Business applications and state‐level stock market realized volatility: A forecasting experiment,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 456-472, March.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Business Applications and State-Level Stock Market Realized Volatility: A Forecasting Experiment," Working Papers 202247, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024.
"Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
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"Correlation‐based tests of predictability,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1835-1858, September.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2022. "Correlation Based Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 112014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Forecasting the realized volatility of agricultural commodity prices: Does sentiment matter?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2088-2125, September.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Forecasting the Realized Volatility of Agricultural Commodity Prices: Does Sentiment Matter?," Working Papers 202316, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Chenxing Li & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2024.
"An infinite hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2187-2211, September.
- Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 115456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024.
"The mean squared prediction error paradox,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2298-2321, September.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2021. "The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox," MPRA Paper 107403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Utkarsh Kumar & Wasim Ahmad & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2024.
"Bayesian Markov switching model for BRICS currencies' exchange rates,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2322-2340, September.
- Kumar, Utkarsh & Ahmad, Wasim & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Bayesian Markov switching model for BRICS currencies' exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122816, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2024.
"Regime‐dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2822-2847, November.
- Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Fortin, Ines & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Obersteiner, Michael, 2021. "Regime-dependent commodity price dynamics: A predictive analysis," IHS Working Paper Series 28, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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"Measuring persistent global economic factors with output, commodity price, and commodity currency data,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2860-2885, November.
- Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2023. "Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data," Working Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024.
"Capturing Macro‐Economic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1099-1127, August.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 20-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2022. "Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 17512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva‐Leon & Liting Su, 2024.
"The Credit‐Card‐Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1163-1202, August.
- William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Liting Su, 2016. "The Credit-Card-Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201604, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
- Barnett, William & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Su, Liting, 2016. "The credit-card-services augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," MPRA Paper 73245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- De Polis, Andrea & Melosi, Leonardo & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "The Taming of the Skew : Asymmetric Inflation Risk and Monetary Policy," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1530, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Long Thanh Giang & Aiko Kikkawa & Donghyun Park, 2024. "Health Capacity to Work among Older Adults in Viet Nam," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 41(01), pages 195-225, March.
- Rangan Gupta & Savanah Hall & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Realized Stock Market Volatility of the United States: The Role of Employee Sentiment,"
Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-21, June.
- Rangan Gupta & Savanah Hall & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Realized Stock Market Volatility of the United States: The Role of Employee Sentiment," Working Papers 202319, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Jacobus Nel & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Climate Risks And Predictability Of Commodity Returns And Volatility: Evidence From Over 750 Years Of Data,"
Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 1-40, November.
- Jacobus Nel & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and Predictability of Commodity Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Over 750 Years of Data," Working Papers 202242, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Nguyen Anh Phong & Phan Huy Tam & Nguyen Thanh Tung, 2024. "Identifying Fraud Financial Reports Based on Signs of Income Management Using Machine Learning Technology: The Case of Listed Companies in Vietnam," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(02), pages 1-16, June.
- Russell R Barton, 2024. "Predictive Analytics for Business using R," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 13856, August.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022.
"Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts,"
Working Papers
22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Clark, Todd E. & Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar, 2024. "Constructing fan charts from the ragged edge of SPF forecasts," Discussion Papers 38/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Constructing fan charts from the ragged edge of SPF forecasts," Working Papers 2429, Banco de España.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Schnorrenberger, Richard & Schwind, Patrick & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2024. "Forecasting HICP package holidays with forward-looking booking data," Technical Papers 04/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Lux, Thomas, 2024. "Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model," Economics Working Papers 2024-02, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
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"Childhood Circumstances and Health of American and Chinese Older Adults: A Machine Learning Evaluation of Inequality of Opportunity in Health,"
IZA Discussion Papers
16764, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Huo, Shutong & Feng, Derek & Gill, Thomas M. & Chen, Xi, 2024. "Childhood Circumstances and Health of American and Chinese Older Adults: A Machine Learning Evaluation of Inequality of Opportunity in Health," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1384, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
- Greyling, Talita & Rossouw, Stephanié, 2024. "Development and validation of a real-time happiness index using Google TrendsTM," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1493, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
- Bantle, Melissa, 2024. "Screen for collusive behavior: A machine learning approach," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2024, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
- Paul, Joseph R. & Schaffer, Mark E., 2024. "An introduction to conformal inference for economists," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-13, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
- Holtemöller, Oliver & Kozyrev, Boris, 2024. "Forecasting economic activity using a neural network in uncertain times: Monte Carlo evidence and application to the German GDP," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Heinisch, Katja, 2024. "Step by step - A quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Deschermeier, Philipp, 2024. "IW-Bevölkerungsprognose: Eine Datengrundlage zur Gestaltung der Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels auf Basis des Zensus 2022 [IW population forecast 2024 - Essential data for meeting the ," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 51(3), pages 67-87.
- Foltas, Alexander, 2024. "Inefficient forecast narratives: A BERT-based approach," Working Papers 45, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Paredes, Joan & Wolf, Elias, 2022.
"Conditional density forecasting: a tempered importance sampling approach,"
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"What charge-off rates are predictable by macroeconomic latent factors?,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," MPRA Paper 116880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2024. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2024-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim & Soohyon Kim, 2024. "Predictive Power of U.S. Macroeconomic Factors for the Dollar/Won Real Exchange Rate," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2024-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Rodney Duffett & Rodica Milena Zaharia & Tudor Edu & Raluca Constantinescu & Costel Negricea, 2024. "Exploring the Antecedents of Artificial Intelligence Products’ Usage. The Case of Business Students," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 26(65), pages 106-106, February.
- Khulood Mohammed BaLashwar & uosuf Khalid Al-Hamar & Seyed-Ali Sadegh-Zadeh, 2024. "Optimizing Bank Stability Through MSME Loan Securitization: A Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics Approach," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 26(2), pages 58-79.
- Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024.
"What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts,"
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2402.04828, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
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- Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024. "What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts," Working Papers 2024.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Tomasz Serafin & Rafal Weron, 2024. "Loss functions in regression models: Impact on profits and risk in day-ahead electricity trading," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/24/03, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
- Katarzyna Chec & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2024. "Extrapolating the long-term seasonal component of electricity prices for forecasting in the day-ahead market," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/24/04, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
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- Lucian MIRESCU & Ana-Maria Camelia POPESCU, 2024. "Analysis And Forecast Of The Employees In The Public And Private Health Systems In Romania," Management and Marketing Journal, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 0(1), pages 113-138, May.
- Liudmyla DOROKHOVA & Silvia BELOEVA & Nataliya VENELINOVA & Oleksandr DOROKHOV, 2024. "Consumer service modeling: the study of buyer’s queues in pharmacies," Access Journal, Access Press Publishing House, vol. 5(3), pages 511-525, July.
- Evgeny V. Balatsky, Natalia A. Ekimova, 2024. "Identification of Economies of Scale in Regional-Industrial Production Complexes of Russia: Theoretical Foundations and Econometric Estimates," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 394-421.
- Elena G. Shershneva, Min Zhou Hao, 2024. "Russian Banks Financial Stability Loss Diagnostic: Multidimensional Logit-Model Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 476-498.
- Algieri, Bernardina & Iania, Leonardo & Leccadito, Arturo, 2024. "Looking ahead: Forecasting total energy carbon dioxide emissions," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2024007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Gabriel P. Mathy & Yongchen Zhao, 2024. "Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Recession?," Working Papers 2024-03, American University, Department of Economics.
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- Құратова Ақбөпе // Kuratova Akbope & Ускенбаев Азат // Uskenbayev Azat, 2024. "Подходы К Оценке Устойчивости Внешнего Сектора Казахстана," Working Papers #2024-9, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
- Konrad Raczkowski & Jarosław Klepacki, 2024. "Typologia metod prognozowania kursu walutowego," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 3, pages 350-366.
- Inna S. Lola & Dmitry G. Asoskov, 2024. "Potential of business uncertainty indicators in forecasting economic activity: The case of Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(4), pages 351-364, December.
- Anna A. Maigur, 2024. "Machine learning algorithms for predicting unemployment duration in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(4), pages 365-384, December.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2024.
"High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
10931, CESifo.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2024. "High-dimensional forecasting with known knowns and known unknowns," Papers 2401.14582, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. P., 2024. "High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2406, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2024.
"Let's Roll Back! The Challenging Task of Regulating Temporary Contracts,"
IZA Discussion Papers
16777, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Davide Fiaschi & Cristina Tealdi, 2024. "Let's roll back! The challenging task of regulating temporary contracts," Papers 2401.17971, arXiv.org.
- Andrea Bastianin & Elisabetta Mirto & Yan Qin & Luca Rossini, 2024.
"What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts,"
Working Papers
2024.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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- Bastianin, Andrea & Mirto, Elisabetta & Qin, Yan & Rossini, Luca, 2024. "What drives the European carbon market? Macroeconomic factors and forecasts," FEEM Working Papers 339740, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
- Arnaud Dufays & Elysee Aristide Houndetoungan & Alain Coën, 2022.
"Selective Linear Segmentation for Detecting Relevant Parameter Changes [Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds],"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 762-805.
- Arnaud Dufays & Aristide Houndetoungan & Alain Coen, 2024. "Selective linear segmentation for detecting relevant parameter changes," Papers 2402.05329, arXiv.org.
- Bartosz Bieganowski & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024.
"Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting,"
Working Papers
2024-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Bartosz Bieganowski & Robert Slepaczuk, 2024. "Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2404.01866, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
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"Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Arkadiusz Lipiecki & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2024. "Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression," Papers 2404.02270, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Allan Timmermann, 2022.
"Forecasting With Panel Data: Estimation Uncertainty Versus Parameter Heterogeneity,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
9690, CESifo.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Forecasting with panel data: Estimation uncertainty versus parameter heterogeneity," Papers 2404.11198, arXiv.org.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Pick, A. & Timmermann, A., 2022. "Forecasting with panel data: estimation uncertainty versus parameter heterogeneity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2219, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2022. "Forecasting with panel data: estimation uncertainty versus parameter heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tony Chernis & Gary Koop & Emily Tallman & Mike West, 2024.
"Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy,"
Staff Working Papers
24-30, Bank of Canada.
- Tony Chernis & Gary Koop & Emily Tallman & Mike West, 2024. "Decision synthesis in monetary policy," Papers 2406.03321, arXiv.org.
- Kamil Kashif & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024.
"LSTM-ARIMA as a Hybrid Approach in Algorithmic Investment Strategies,"
Working Papers
2024-07, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Kamil Kashif & Robert 'Slepaczuk, 2024. "LSTM-ARIMA as a Hybrid Approach in Algorithmic Investment Strategies," Papers 2406.18206, arXiv.org.
- Maciej Wysocki & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2024.
"Construction and Hedging of Equity Index Options Portfolios,"
Working Papers
2024-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Maciej Wysocki & Robert 'Slepaczuk, 2024. "Construction and Hedging of Equity Index Options Portfolios," Papers 2407.13908, arXiv.org.
- Kreye, Tom Jannik & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2024.
"Testing for a Forecast Accuracy Breakdown under Long Memory,"
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)
dp-729, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Jannik Kreye & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2024. "Testing for a Forecast Accuracy Breakdown under Long Memory," Papers 2409.07087, arXiv.org.
- Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2021.
"Testing for equal predictive accuracy with strong dependence,"
Discussion Papers
21/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2024. "Testing for equal predictive accuracy with strong dependence," Papers 2409.12662, arXiv.org.
- Kirtac, Kemal & Germano, Guido, 2024.
"Sentiment trading with large language models,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
- Kirtac, Kemal & Germano, Guido, 2024. "Sentiment trading with large language models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122592, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Kemal Kirtac & Guido Germano, 2024. "Sentiment trading with large language models," Papers 2412.19245, arXiv.org.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023.
"Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Xiao Li & Wenjun Xue & Kaimeng Zhang, 2024. "The Predictive Power of Monetary Policy on International Stock Market Returns-Evidence From TV-ARMAX Model," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-8.
- Xiaohang Ren & Kang Yuan & Lizhu Tao & Cheng Yan, 2024. "Carbon Prices Forecasting Using Group Information," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 4(4), pages 1-6.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024.
"Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting,"
Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 5, pages 90-125,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 18970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Michael PFARRHOFER, 2024. "Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24224, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Monia Magnani, 2024. "Does Macroeconomic Predictability Enhance the Economic Value of Hedge Funds to Risk-Averse Investors?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24232, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Etienne Briand & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2024. "Inflation, Attention and Expectations," Working Papers 24-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Dec 2024.
- Antoine Poulin-Moore & Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2024. "Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach," Staff Working Papers 24-10, Bank of Canada.
- Tony Chernis & Gary Koop & Emily Tallman & Mike West, 2024.
"Decision synthesis in monetary policy,"
Papers
2406.03321, arXiv.org.
- Tony Chernis & Gary Koop & Emily Tallman & Mike West, 2024. "Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 24-30, Bank of Canada.
- Pablo Garcia & Pascal Jacquinot & ÄŒrt LenarÄ iÄ & Kostas Mavromatis & Niki Papadopoulou & Niki Papadopoulou, 2024.
"Green Transition in the Euro Area: Domestic and Global Factors,"
Working Papers
816, DNB.
- Pablo Garcia & Pascal Jacquinot & Crt Lenarcic & Kostas Mavromatis & Niki Papadopoulou & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2024. "Green Transition in the euro area: Domestic and global factors," BCL working papers 190, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Furkan TURKOGLU & Eda GOCECEK & Yavuz YUMRUKUZ, 2024. "Predictive Abilities of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approaches for Exchange Rate Prediction," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 18(2), pages 186-210.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022.
"Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts,"
Working Papers
22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Constructing fan charts from the ragged edge of SPF forecasts," Working Papers 2429, Banco de España.
- Clark, Todd E. & Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar, 2024. "Constructing fan charts from the ragged edge of SPF forecasts," Discussion Papers 38/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2024. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Alicia Aguilar & Ricardo Gimeno, 2024. "Discrete Probability Forecasts: What to expect when you are expecting a monetary policy decision," Working Papers 2438, Banco de España.
- Francesco Braggiotti & Nicola Chiarini & Giulio Dondi & Luciano Lavecchia & Valeria Lionetti & Juri Marcucci & Riccardo Russo, 2024. "Predicting buildings' EPC in Italy: a machine learning based-approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 850, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Davide Delle Monache & Claudia Pacella, 2024. "The drivers of inflation dynamics in Italy over the period 2021-2023," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 873, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Donato Ceci & Orest Prifti & Andrea Silvestrini, 2024. "Nowcasting Italian GDP growth: a Factor MIDAS approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gazzani, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2024.
"Oil price shocks in real time,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
- Andrea Gazzani & Fabrizio Venditti & Giovanni Veronese, 2024. "Oil price shocks in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1448, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian B. Hansen & Jorge Pérez Pérez & Jesse M. Shapiro & Constantino Carreto, 2024. "Policy Effect Estimation and Visualization in Linear Panel Event-Study Designs: Introducing the xtevent Package," Working Papers 2024-09, Banco de México.
- Lenin Arango-Castillo & Francisco J. Martínez-Ramírez & María José Orraca, 2024. "Univariate Measures of Persistence: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2024-11, Banco de México.
- Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
- Gary Cornwall & Marina Gindelsky, 2024. "Nowcasting Distributional National Accounts for the United States: A Machine Learning Approach," BEA Papers 0130, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Pınar Karadayı Ataş, 2024. "A Novel Hybrid Regression Model for Banking Loss Estimation," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 8(1), pages 91-105, June.
- Ilia Chapyshev & Ansel Shaidullin, 2024. "Study of the Problem of Interoperability of the Bank of Russia's Digital Currency," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(1), pages 104-126, March.
- Anastasiia Pankratova, 2024. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Indicators Using DMA and DMS Methods," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(1), pages 32-52, March.
- Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2024. "Forecasting Inflation in Russia Using Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(1), pages 53-76, March.
- Anastasia Mogilat & Oleg Kryzhanovskiy & Zhanna Shuvalova & Yaroslav Murashov, 2024. "DYFARUS: Dynamic Factor Model to Forecast GDP by Output Using Input-Output Tables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 3-25, June.
- Yury Perevyshin, 2024. "Analysts' Inflation Expectations vs Univariate Models of Inflation Forecasting in the Russian Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 54-76, June.
- Rodion Latypov & Elena Akhmedova & Egor Postolit & Marina Mikitchuk, 2024. "Bottom-up Inflation Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(3), pages 23-44, September.
- Alexandra Bozhechkova & Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2024. "CLARA and CARLSON: Combination of Ensemble and Neural Network Machine Learning Methods for GDP Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(3), pages 45-69, September.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2024.
"Climate risks and forecastability of the weekly state‐level economic conditions of the United States,"
International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 154-162, March.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2022. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States," Working Papers 202251, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Leona Han Chen & Yijie Fei & Jun Yu, 2024. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models based on Generalized Fisher Transformation," Working Papers 202419, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
- Eguren-Martin, Fernando & Kösem, Sevim & Maia, Guido & Sokol, Andrej, 2024. "Targeted financial conditions indices and growth-at-risk," Bank of England working papers 1084, Bank of England.
- Mehrabani Ali & Parsaeian Shahnaz & Ullah Aman, 2024. "Shrinkage Estimation and Forecasting in Dynamic Regression Models Under Structural Instability," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 251-279.
- Prüser Jan, 2024. "Forecasting the Risk of Cryptocurrencies: Comparison and Combination of GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 83-108.
- Mohamed Riyath Mohamed Ismail & Aldabbous Nagham, 2024. "Long-Run Volatility Memory Dynamics and Inter-Market Linkages in GCC Equity Markets: Application of DCC-FIGARCH Models," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 299-329.
- Chernis Tony, 2024.
"Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(2), pages 293-317, April.
- Tony Chernis, 2023. "Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis," Staff Working Papers 23-45, Bank of Canada.
- Baruník Jozef & Fišer Pavel, 2024.
"Co-Jumping of Treasury Yield Curve Rates,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 481-506.
- Jozef Barunik & Pavel Fiser, 2019. "Co-jumping of Treasury Yield Curve Rates," Papers 1905.01541, arXiv.org.
- Ayala Astrid & Blazsek Szabolcs & Licht Adrian, 2024. "Volatility Forecasting Using Quasi-Score-Driven Models with an Application to the Coronavirus Pandemic Period," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(5), pages 785-805.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2024.
"High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
10931, CESifo.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. P., 2024. "High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2406, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2024. "High-dimensional forecasting with known knowns and known unknowns," Papers 2401.14582, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
- Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Jennifer Doherty-Bigara & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2024.
"Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Doherty-Bigara, J. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2420, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Doherty-Bigara, J. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2414, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Doherty-Bigara, Jennifer & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13478, Inter-American Development Bank.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Hayun Song, 2024.
"Forecasting 2024 US Presidential Election by States Using County Level Data: Too Close to Call,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
11415, CESifo.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Song, H., 2024. "Forecasting 2024 US Presidential Election by States Using County Level Data: Too Close to Call," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2464, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Matt Burke & Matthew Agarwala & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2024.
"Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Burke, M. & Agarwala, M. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2470, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Burke, M. & Agarwala, M. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2430, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Jennifer Doherty-Bigara & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2024.
"Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Doherty-Bigara, J. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2414, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Agarwala, M. & Burke, M. & Doherty-Bigara, J. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2420, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Doherty-Bigara, Jennifer & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2024. "Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13478, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Matt Burke & Matthew Agarwala & Patrycja Klusak & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2024.
"Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Burke, M. & Agarwala, M. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2430, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Burke, M. & Agarwala, M. & Klusak, P. & Mohaddes, K., 2024. "Climate Policy and Sovereign Debt: The Impact of Transition Scenarios on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2470, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Congressional Budget Office, 2024. "An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023," Reports 60664, Congressional Budget Office.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, R. P., 2024.
"High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
2406, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2024. "High-Dimensional Forecasting with Known Knowns and Known Unknowns," CESifo Working Paper Series 10931, CESifo.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2024. "High-dimensional forecasting with known knowns and known unknowns," Papers 2401.14582, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
- Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Gortz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2024.
"Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data with Panel Data Structure,"
CAMA Working Papers
2024-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2024. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data with Panel Data Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 11013, CESifo.
- Ullrich, Hannes & Hannane, Jonas & Peukert, Christian & Aguiar, Luis & Duso, Tomaso, 2024.
"Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
19266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hannes Ullrich & Jonas Hannane & Christian Peukert & Luis Aguiar & Tomaso Duso, 2024. "Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking," CESifo Working Paper Series 11240, CESifo.
- Hannes Ullrich & Jonas Hannane & Christian Peukert & Luis Aguiar & Tomaso Duso, 2024. "Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2091, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024.
"Filtering with Limited Information,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
24-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 11243, CESifo.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," NBER Working Papers 32754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron, Pablo & Oosthuizen, Dick, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 19270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Song, H., 2024.
"Forecasting 2024 US Presidential Election by States Using County Level Data: Too Close to Call,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
2464, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Hayun Song, 2024. "Forecasting 2024 US Presidential Election by States Using County Level Data: Too Close to Call," CESifo Working Paper Series 11415, CESifo.
- Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "What Is Behind the ifo Business Climate? Evidence from a Meta-Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11482, CESifo.
- Mariia Okuneva & Philipp Hauber & Kai Carstensen & Jasper Bär, 2024. "Nowcasting German GDP with Text Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 11587, CESifo.
- Katharina Wedel, 2024. "Improving Educational Outcomes: Analyses of Interventions and Public Opinion," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 105.
- Markus Leippold & Michal Svaton, 2024. "Scheduling Processes and Inference of Scheduled Events From Price Data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 24-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Soros Chitsiripanich & Marc S. Paolella & Pawel Polak & Patrick S. Walker, 2024. "Smoothing Out Momentum and Reversal," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 24-47, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Yicheng Wang & Didier Sornette & Ke Wu & Sandro Claudio Lera, 2024. "Dynamic Influence Networks Self-Organize Towards Sub-Critical Financial Instabilities," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 24-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Vincenzo Candila & Oguzhan Cepni & Giampiero M. Gallo & Rangan Gupta, 2024.
"Influence of Local and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Volatility of US State-Level Equity Returns: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Shrinkage and Cluster Analysis,"
Working Papers
202437, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- V. Candila & O. Cepni & G. M. Gallo & R. Gupta, 2024. "Influence of Local and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on the volatility of US state-level equity returns: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach with Shrinkage and Cluster Analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202414, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Borgioli, Stefano & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Ongari, Chiara, 2024.
"Financial returns, sentiment and market volatility. A dynamic assessment,"
Working Paper Series
2999, European Central Bank.
- G.M. Gallo & C.Ongari & S. Borgioli, 2024. "Financial Returns, Sentiment and Market Volatility: a Dynamic Assessment," Working Paper CRENoS 202415, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Castillo Nuñez, Omar, 2024. "Incidencia de las lluvias y del precio en la oferta de leche cruda en los departamentos de Córdoba y Sucre, Colombia," Ensayos de Economía 21226, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics,"
Working Papers
22-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2024. "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 18901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024.
"Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting,"
Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 5, pages 90-125,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Michael PFARRHOFER, 2024. "Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24224, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Bayesian nonparametric methods for macroeconomic forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 18970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Florian Huber & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2024.
"Risky Oil: It's All in the Tails,"
NBER Working Papers
32524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Huber, Florian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2024. "Risky Oil: It's All in the Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 19129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kwon, Alexander & Maliar, Lilia, 2024. "Predicting Retirement and Social Security Claiming Decisions using Machine Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 19198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hannes Ullrich & Jonas Hannane & Christian Peukert & Luis Aguiar & Tomaso Duso, 2024.
"Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
11240, CESifo.
- Ullrich, Hannes & Hannane, Jonas & Peukert, Christian & Aguiar, Luis & Duso, Tomaso, 2024. "Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking," CEPR Discussion Papers 19266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hannes Ullrich & Jonas Hannane & Christian Peukert & Luis Aguiar & Tomaso Duso, 2024. "Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2091, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024.
"Filtering with Limited Information,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
24-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron, Pablo & Oosthuizen, Dick, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 19270, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," NBER Working Papers 32754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 11243, CESifo.
- Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber & Karin Klieber & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Bayesian Neural Networks for Macroeconomic Analysis,"
Papers
2211.04752, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
- Hauzenberger , Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2024. "Bayesian Neural Networks for Macroeconomic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 19381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022.
"A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys,"
Staff Reports
1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Del Negro, Marco, 2024. "A Bayesian Approach for Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," CEPR Discussion Papers 19426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024.
"Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions: using score-driven threshold climate models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39546, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Julen Iglesias Tejedor, 2024. "Creación de una cartera de inversión que venza la inflación atendiendo a criterios ESG gestionada mediante machine learning," Revista de Economía y Finanzas (REyF), Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 2(5), pages 79-100, Mayo.
- Ullrich, Hannes & Hannane, Jonas & Peukert, Christian & Aguiar, Luis & Duso, Tomaso, 2024.
"Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
19266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hannes Ullrich & Jonas Hannane & Christian Peukert & Luis Aguiar & Tomaso Duso, 2024. "Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2091, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Hannes Ullrich & Jonas Hannane & Christian Peukert & Luis Aguiar & Tomaso Duso, 2024. "Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking," CESifo Working Paper Series 11240, CESifo.
- Richard Schnorrenberger & Aishameriane Schmidt & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2024. "Harnessing Machine Learning for Real-Time Inflation Nowcasting," Working Papers 806, DNB.
- Pablo Garcia & Pascal Jacquinot & Crt Lenarcic & Kostas Mavromatis & Niki Papadopoulou & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2024.
"Green Transition in the euro area: Domestic and global factors,"
BCL working papers
190, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
- Pablo Garcia & Pascal Jacquinot & ÄŒrt LenarÄ iÄ & Kostas Mavromatis & Niki Papadopoulou & Niki Papadopoulou, 2024. "Green Transition in the Euro Area: Domestic and Global Factors," Working Papers 816, DNB.
- Dorinth van Dijk & Mick van Rooijen & Jasper de Winter, 2024. "DFROG: A nowcasting model for GDP growth," Working Papers 819, DNB.
- Chahad, Mohammed & Hofmann-Drahonsky, Anna-Camilla & Krause, Willi & Landau, Bettina & Sigwalt, Antoine, 2024. "The empirical performance of ECB/Eurosystem staff inflation projections since 2000," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
- Chahad, Mohammed & Martínez Hernández, Catalina & Page, Adrian & Hofmann-Drahonsky, Anna-Camilla, 2024. "An update on the accuracy of recent Eurosystem/ECB staff projections for short-term inflation," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
- Page, Adrian, 2024. "The performance of Eurosystem/ECB staff projections for economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
- Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Dimitrov, Ivan & Naruševičius, Laurynas & Le Grand, Catherine & Nunes, André & Podlogar, Jure & Röhm, Nicola & Ter Steege, Lucas, 2024. "2023 macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 347, European Central Bank.
- Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
- Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023.
"Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany,"
Discussion Papers
34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2024. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany," Working Paper Series 2930, European Central Bank.
- Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kornprobst, Antoine & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Monetary policy strategies to navigate post-pandemic inflation: an assessment using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 2935, European Central Bank.
- G.M. Gallo & C.Ongari & S. Borgioli, 2024.
"Financial Returns, Sentiment and Market Volatility: a Dynamic Assessment,"
Working Paper CRENoS
202415, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- Borgioli, Stefano & Gallo, Giampiero M. & Ongari, Chiara, 2024. "Financial returns, sentiment and market volatility. A dynamic assessment," Working Paper Series 2999, European Central Bank.
- Linzenich, Jan & Meunier, Baptiste, 2024. "Nowcasting Made Easier: a toolbox for economists," Working Paper Series 3004, European Central Bank.
- Siphat Lim & Edman Flores & Casey Barnett, 2024. "Analyzing the Effectiveness of a System of Equation Model in Comparison to Single Equation Models for Predicting General Price Level in Cambodia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 156-166, September.
- Aarti Mehta Sharma & Saina Baby & Varsha Raghu, 2024. "Forecasting High Speed Diesel Demand in India with Econometric and Machine Learning Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 496-506, January.
- Wamiliana Wamiliana & Edwin Russel & Iskandar Ali Alam & Widiarti Widiarti & Tuti Hairani & Mustofa Usman, 2024. "Modeling and Forecasting Closing Prices of some Coal Mining Companies in Indonesia by Using the VAR(3)-BEKK GARCH(1,1) Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 579-591, January.
- Bharat Kumar Meher & Abhishek Anand & Sunil Kumar & Ramona Birau & Manohar Sing, 2024. "Effectiveness of Random Forest Model in Predicting Stock Prices of Solar Energy Companies in India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 426-434, March.
- Anggi Putri Kurniadi & Hasdi Aimon & Zamroni Salim & Ragimun Ragimun & Adang Sonjaya & Sigit Setiawan & Viktor Siagian & Lokot Zein Nasution & R Nurhidajat & Mutaqin Mutaqin & Joko Sabtohadi, 2024. "Analysis of Existing and Forecasting for Coal and Solar Energy Consumption on Climate Change in Asia Pacific: New Evidence for Sustainable Development Goals," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 352-359, July.
- Herry Kartika Gandhi & Ispány Márton, 2024. "Multi-step Natural Gas Price Forecasting using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory Hybrid Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 590-598, July.
- Hatem Brik & Jihene El Ouakdi, 2024. "Interplay of Volatility and Geopolitical Tensions in Clean Energy Markets: A Comprehensive GARCH-LSTM Forecasting Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 92-107, July.
- Wellcome Peujio Jiotsop-Foze & Adrián Hernández-del-Valle & Francisco Venegas-MartÃnez, 2024. "Transforming Mexico’s Electric Load Infrastructure: A Quantile Transformer Network Deep Learning Approach, 2019-2020," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 527-533, September.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Bekhzod Kuziboev & Manzura Masharipova & Sherali Allaberganov & Samariddin Makhmudov, 2024. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for Extended Brics Economies: Do Women Governance and Water Stress Matter?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 174-183, November.
- Abdikani Yusuf Abdulle & Idiris Sid Ali Mohamed, 2024. "The Environmental Impact of Trade Openness on CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Somalia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 353-364, November.
- Zhang, Huajing & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yumin, 2024. "Extrapolative beliefs and return predictability: Evidence from China," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
- Yacoubou Djima, Ismael & Kilic, Talip, 2024. "Attenuating measurement errors in agricultural productivity analysis by combining objective and self-reported survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
- Botsis, Alexandros & Görtz, Christoph & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2024. "Quantifying qualitative survey data with panel data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
- Lux, Thomas, 2024. "Lack of identification of parameters in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
- Delogu, Marco & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Paolini, Dimitri & Resce, Giuliano, 2024.
"Predicting dropout from higher education: Evidence from Italy,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Marco Delogu & Raffaelle Lagravinese & Dimitri Paolini & Giuliano Resce, 2020. "Predicting dropout from higher education: Evidence from Italy," DEM Discussion Paper Series 22-06, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
- Liu, Ying & Wen, Long & Liu, Han & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Predicting tourism recovery from COVID-19: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
- Granados, Camilo & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2024.
"Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
- Camilo Granados & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2023. "Estimating the Output Gap After COVID: How to Address Unprecedented Macroeconomic Variations," Borradores de Economia 1249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Song, Yuping & Huang, Jiefei & Zhang, Qichao & Xu, Yang, 2024. "Heterogeneity effect of positive and negative jumps on the realized volatility: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Arbués, Ignacio & Matilla-García, Mariano, 2024. "Multibenchmark reality checks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Conigliani, Caterina & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena & Tancredi, Andrea, 2024. "Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
- Dufera, Tamirat Temesgen, 2024. "Fractional Brownian motion in option pricing and dynamic delta hedging: Experimental simulations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
- Li, Xiaowei & Wu, Zhengyu & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Lu, 2024. "Risk-neutral skewness and stock market returns: A time-series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
- Wang, Jia & Wang, Xinyi & Wang, Xu, 2024. "International oil shocks and the volatility forecasting of Chinese stock market based on machine learning combination models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
- Herrera, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2024. "Market risk modeling with option-implied covariances and score-driven dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
- Bufalo, Michele & Ceci, Claudia & Orlando, Giuseppe, 2024. "Addressing the financial impact of natural disasters in the era of climate change," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Maki, Daiki, 2024. "Evaluation of volatility spillovers for asymmetric realized covariance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Sanford, Anthony, 2024. "Information content of option prices: Comparing analyst forecasts to option-based forecasts," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Ren, Tingting & Li, Shaofang & Zhang, Siying, 2024. "Stock market extreme risk prediction based on machine learning: Evidence from the American market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Yang, Qu & Yu, Yuanyuan & Dai, Dongsheng & He, Qian & Lin, Yu, 2024. "Can hybrid model improve the forecasting performance of stock price index amid COVID-19? Contextual evidence from the MEEMD-LSTM-MLP approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Zhao, Yongchen, 2024.
"Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
- Yongchen Zhao, 2023. "Uncertainty of Household Inflation Expectations: Reconciling Point and Density Forecasts," Working Papers 2023-09, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2023.
- Drautzburg, Thorsten, 2024.
"A structural approach to combining external and DSGE model forecasts,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
- Thorsten Drautzburg, 2023. "A Structural Approach to Combining External and DSGE Model Forecasts," Working Papers 23-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Doan, Bao & Jayasuriya, Dulani & Lee, John B. & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2024. "Cryptocurrency systematic risk dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
- Kunaschk, Max, 2024. "Enriching administrative data using survey data and machine learning techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
- Harel, Arie & Harpaz, Giora, 2024. "Why stock analysts may make wrong predictions?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
- Telg, Sean, 2024. "Time aggregation of mixed causal–noncausal models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
- Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2024. "The efficiency of the Japanese government’s revenue projections," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
- Lange, Rutger-Jan, 2024. "Bellman filtering and smoothing for state–space models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
- Reuvers, Hanno & Wijler, Etienne, 2024. "Sparse generalized Yule–Walker estimation for large spatio-temporal autoregressions with an application to NO2 satellite data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2024. "Reprint of: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
- Chen, Qitong & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi, 2024. "Time-varying forecast combination for factor-augmented regressions with smooth structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
- Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Predictive ability tests with possibly overlapping models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(1).
- Daouia, Abdelaati & Padoan, Simone A. & Stupfler, Gilles, 2024.
"Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
- Abdelaati Daouia & Simone A. Padoan & Gilles Stupfler, 2024. "Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data," Post-Print hal-04672516, HAL.
- Oh, Dong Hwan & Patton, Andrew J., 2024. "Better the devil you know: Improved forecasts from imperfect models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 242(1).
- Mei, Ziwei & Shi, Zhentao, 2024. "On LASSO for high dimensional predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 242(2).
- Brownlees, Christian & Llorens-Terrazas, Jordi, 2024. "Empirical risk minimization for time series: Nonparametric performance bounds for prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
- Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Local projections in unstable environments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
- Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Reprint of: Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage: An application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
- Vu, Patrick, 2024. "Why are replication rates so low?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 245(1).
- Berlin, Mitchell & Byun, Sung Je & D'Erasmo, Pablo & Yu, Edison, 2024. "Measuring climate transition risk at the regional level with an application to community banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
- Botelho, Vasco & Foroni, Claudia & Renzetti, Andrea, 2024. "Labour at risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
- Montorsi, Carlotta & Fusco, Alessio & Van Kerm, Philippe & Bordas, Stéphane P.A., 2024. "Predicting depression in old age: Combining life course data with machine learning," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
- Coqueret, Guillaume & Deguest, Romain, 2024. "Unexpected opportunities in misspecified predictive regressions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(2), pages 686-700.
- Hernández, Juan R. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Valencia, J. Eduardo, 2024. "Global supply chain inflationary pressures and monetary policy in Mexico," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Lo, Gaye-Del & Marcelin, Isaac & Bassène, Théophile & Lo, Assane, 2024. "Connectedness and risk spillovers among sub-Saharan Africa and MENA equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- Branco, Rafael R. & Rubesam, Alexandre & Zevallos, Mauricio, 2024. "Forecasting realized volatility: Does anything beat linear models?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- Watanabe, Toshiaki & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2024. "High-frequency realized stochastic volatility model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
- Salisu, Afees A. & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2024. "Technological shocks and stock market volatility over a century," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
- Syuhada, Khreshna & Hakim, Arief & Suprijanto, Djoko, 2024. "Assessing systemic risk and connectedness among dirty and clean energy markets from the quantile and expectile perspectives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O., 2024. "Technology shocks and crude oil market connection: The role of climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Phella, Anthoulla & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Martins, Luis F., 2024. "Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
- Wang, Yushi & Wu, Libo & Zhou, Yang, 2024. "Household's willingness to pay for renewable electricity: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
- Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024.
"Stock market bubbles and the realized volatility of oil price returns,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
- Rangan Gupta & Joshua Nielsen & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Realized Volatility of Oil Price Returns," Working Papers 202325, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Iacopini, Matteo, 2024. "Extreme time-varying spillovers between high carbon emission stocks, green bond and crude oil: Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
- Haas, Christian & Budin, Constantin & d’Arcy, Anne, 2024. "How to select oil price prediction models — The effect of statistical and financial performance metrics and sentiment scores," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Liang, Chao & Cao, Yang, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the price bubbles in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Qunwei, 2024. "Forecasting carbon prices under diversified attention: A dynamic model averaging approach with common factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024.
"Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions using score-driven threshold climate models,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
- Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions: using score-driven threshold climate models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39546, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Veggente, Veronica, 2024.
"Learning from experts: Energy efficiency in residential buildings,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Veggente, Veronica, 2023. "Learning from experts: Energy efficiency in residential buildings," SAFE Working Paper Series 403, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Tan, Jinghua & Li, Zhixi & Zhang, Chuanhui & Shi, Long & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2024. "A multiscale time-series decomposition learning for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Ouyang, Zisheng & Lu, Min & Ouyang, Zhongzhe & Zhou, Xuewei & Wang, Ren, 2024. "A novel integrated method for improving the forecasting accuracy of crude oil: ESMD-CFastICA-BiLSTM-Attention," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
- Tian, Guangning & Peng, Yuchao & Du, Huancheng & Meng, Yuhao, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil returns in different degrees of ambiguity: Why machine learn better?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Zhao, Yue & Brooks, Adria E. & Du, Xiaodong, 2024. "Electricity market resilience in the face of Hurricane Harvey: A network-oriented approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Sánchez-García, Javier & Mattera, Raffaele & Cruz-Rambaud, Salvador & Cerqueti, Roy, 2024. "Measuring financial stability in the presence of energy shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Fields, Micah & Lindequist, David, 2024. "Global spillovers of US climate policy risk: Evidence from EU carbon emissions futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Lipiecki, Arkadiusz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2024.
"Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Arkadiusz Lipiecki & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2024. "Postprocessing of point predictions for probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices: The benefits of using isotonic distributional regression," Papers 2404.02270, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
- Yang, Kun & Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Forecasting interval carbon price through a multi-scale interval-valued decomposition ensemble approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
- Zhao, Yuan & Gong, Xue & Zhang, Weiguo & Xu, Weijun, 2024. "Forecasting carbon futures returns using feature selection and Markov chain with sample distribution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
2023
- Quang Canh Tran & Anh Tung Tran & Thi Trang Tran, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Export Value of Vietnam’s Agro-forestry-fishery," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(4), pages 55-71, December.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "Forecasting Net Charge-Off Rates of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies using Macroeconomic Latent Factors," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Sarthak Behera & Hyeongwoo Kim & Soohyon Kim, 2023. "Superior Predictability of American Factors of the Dollar/Won Real Exchange Rate," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2024.
"What charge-off rates are predictable by macroeconomic latent factors?,"
Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Son, Jisoo, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," MPRA Paper 116880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2024. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2024-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Jisoo Son, 2023. "What Charge-Off Rates Are Predictable by Macroeconomic Latent Factors?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
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"Fast and order‐invariant inference in Bayesian VARs with nonparametric shocks,"
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"Solving the Forecast Combination Puzzle,"
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"Amortized Neural Networks for Agent-Based Model Forecasting,"
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"Economic complexity limits accuracy of price probability predictions by gaussian distributions,"
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"Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments,"
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"Mean Absolute Directional Loss as a New Loss Function for Machine Learning Problems in Algorithmic Investment Strategies,"
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"Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices,"
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"Bayesian Estimation of Panel Models under Potentially Sparse Heterogeneity,"
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"Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function,"
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"Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability,"
Globalization Institute Working Papers
394, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 05 Aug 2024.
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"Nowcasting Madagascar's real GDP using machine learning algorithms,"
AfricArxiv
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- Adrian NICOLAU, 2023. "The Impact Of Ai On Internal Audit And Accounting Practices," Internal Auditing and Risk Management, Athenaeum University of Bucharest, vol. 67(2), pages 38-56, May.
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"Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function,"
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"Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
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"Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: a Three-Step Approach,"
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"Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts,"
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"Amortized neural networks for agent-based model forecasting,"
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"Climate risks and U.S. stock‐market tail risks: A forecasting experiment using over a century of data,"
International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 228-244, June.
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"Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts,"
Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
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"Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 599-622, June.
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"Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 959-992, October.
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- COJOCARIU Irina-Cristina, 2023. "Analysis Of Sports Performances Using Machine Learning And Statistical Models - A General Analysis Of The Literature," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 75(2), pages 34-39, June.
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"Forecasting inflation: The use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 514-529, April.
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"The D-model for GDP nowcasting,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-33, December.
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"Superkurtosis,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2061-2091, December.
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"Forecasting VIX: the illusion of forecast evaluation criteria,"
Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 231-240.
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"Forecasting Inflation in Mongolia: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach,"
Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 27-48, January.
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"How to deal with missing observations in surveys of professional forecasters,"
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"Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability,"
Globalization Institute Working Papers
394, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 05 Aug 2024.
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"Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States,"
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"A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 817-838, August.
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"ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
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Papers
2309.02447, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
- Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "Economic complexity limits accuracy of price probability predictions by gaussian distributions," MPRA Paper 118373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dean Fantazzini & Yufeng Xiao, 2023.
"Detecting Pump-and-Dumps with Crypto-Assets: Dealing with Imbalanced Datasets and Insiders’ Anticipated Purchases,"
Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-73, August.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Xiao, Yufeng, 2023. "Detecting Pump-and-Dumps with Crypto-Assets: Dealing with Imbalanced Datasets and Insiders’ Anticipated Purchases," MPRA Paper 118435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lee, David, 2023. "Default Forecasting and Credit Valuation Adjustment," MPRA Paper 118578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2023. "Прогнозирование Инфляции В России С Помощью Tvp-Модели С Байесовским Сжатием Параметров [Forecasting inflation in Russia using a TVP model with Bayesian shrinkage]," MPRA Paper 118650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- ANDRIANADY, Josué R. & Randriamifidy, Fitiavana M. & Ranaivoson, Michel H. P. & Steffanie, Thierry Miora, 2023.
"Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach,"
MPRA Paper
118712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Josué, ANDRIANADY & M. Randriamifidy, Fitiavana & H. P. Ranaivoson, Michel & Miora Steffanie, Thierry, 2023. "Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach," MPRA Paper 118763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mohajan, Devajit, 2023. "Mathematical Analysis of an Industry When Cost of Principal Raw Materials Increase: A Nonlinear Budget Constraint Attempt," MPRA Paper 118933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Elshin, Leonid & Mikhalevich, Polina, 2023. "Транснациональные Цепочки Поставок И Их Роль В Формировании Добавленной Стоимости Региона (На Примере Республики Татарстан) [Transnational supply chains and their role in creating value added in th," MPRA Paper 118969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Ardia & Arnaud Dufays & Carlos Ordás Criado, 2024.
"Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1155-1168, October.
- Ardia, David & Dufays, Arnaud & Ordás Criado, Carlos, 2023. "Linking Frequentist and Bayesian Change-Point Methods," MPRA Paper 119486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jia Liu & John M. Maheu & Yong Song, 2024.
"Identification and forecasting of bull and bear markets using multivariate returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 723-745, August.
- Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M & Song, Yong, 2023. "Identification and Forecasting of Bull and Bear Markets using Multivariate Returns," MPRA Paper 119515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Gouveia, Sonia & Scotto, Manuel, 2023. "Random multiplication versus random sum: auto-regressive-like models with integer-valued random inputs," MPRA Paper 119518, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Dec 2023.
- Afees Salisu & Sulaiman Salisu & Subair Salisu, 2024.
"A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria,"
Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4987-5002, October.
- Salisu, Afees & Salisu, Sulaiman & Salisu, Subair, 2023. "A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 119539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Aug 2023.
- Franck Ramaharo & Gerzhino Rasolofomanana, 2023.
"Nowcasting Madagascar's real GDP using machine learning algorithms,"
Papers
2401.10255, arXiv.org.
- Ramaharo, Franck M. & Rasolofomanana, Gerzhino H., 2023. "Nowcasting Madagascar's real GDP using machine learning algorithms," MPRA Paper 119574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ramaharo, Franck Maminirina & Rasolofomanana, Gerzhino H, 2023. "Nowcasting Madagascar's real GDP using machine learning algorithms," AfricArxiv vpuac, Center for Open Science.
- Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Drivers of Realized Volatility for South Africa (and the BRIC Countries): Fundamentals versus Sentiment," Working Papers 202303, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Technological Shocks and Stock Market Volatility Over a Century: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202308, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Reneé van Eyden, 2023.
"Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating,"
Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
- Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Renee van Eyden, 2023. "Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating," Working Papers 202311, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Forecasting the realized volatility of agricultural commodity prices: Does sentiment matter?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2088-2125, September.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Forecasting the Realized Volatility of Agricultural Commodity Prices: Does Sentiment Matter?," Working Papers 202316, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang & Pierdzioch, Christian & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2023.
"Forecasting the conditional distribution of realized volatility of oil price returns: The role of skewness over 1859 to 2023,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
- Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji & Christian Pierdzioch & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2023. "Forecasting the Conditional Distribution of Realized Volatility of Oil Price Returns: The Role of Skewness over 1859 to 2023," Working Papers 202318, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Savanah Hall & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Realized Stock Market Volatility of the United States: The Role of Employee Sentiment,"
Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-21, June.
- Rangan Gupta & Savanah Hall & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Realized Stock Market Volatility of the United States: The Role of Employee Sentiment," Working Papers 202319, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024.
"Financial stress and realized volatility: The case of agricultural commodities,"
Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Financial Stress and Realized Volatility: The Case of Agricultural Commodities," Working Papers 202320, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Wenting Liao & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2023. "Economic Conditions and Predictability of US Stock Returns Volatility: Local Factor versus National Factor in a GARCH-MIDAS Model," Working Papers 202323, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024.
"Stock market bubbles and the realized volatility of oil price returns,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
- Rangan Gupta & Joshua Nielsen & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Realized Volatility of Oil Price Returns," Working Papers 202325, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Climate Risks and Stock Market Volatility Over a Century in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 202326, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Petre Caraiani, 2024.
"Oil shocks and state-level stock market volatility of the United States: a GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1473-1510, November.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Petre Caraiani, 2023. "Oil Shocks and State-Level Stock Market Volatility of the United States: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202327, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Ryan Shackleton & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Comparing Risk Profiles of International Stock Markets as Functional Data: COVID-19 versus the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 202328, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024.
"Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
- Santino Del Fava & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Lavinia Rognone, 2023. "Forecasting International Financial Stress: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202329, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2023. "Housing Market Variables and Predictability of State-Level Stock Market Volatility of the United States: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202330, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2024.
"Energy-related uncertainty and international stock market volatility,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-293.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Energy-Related Uncertainty and International Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 202336, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Foglia & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Multi-Layer Spillovers between Volatility and Skewness in International Stock Markets Over a Century of Data: The Role of Disaster Risks," Working Papers 202337, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Ruipeng Liu & Mawuli Segnon & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Forecasting Volatility of Commodity, Currency, and Stock Markets: Evidence from Markov Switching Multifractal Models," Working Papers 202340, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Srecko Devjak, 2023. "Corporate Liquidity in Coronacrisis: Experience of Serbian Economy," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(1), pages 1-20.
- İsmail Cakmak & Selcen Öztürk, 2023. "Analysing Impact of Economic Crises on Sector Profits with a New Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(3), pages 225-245.
- António Rua & Nuno Lourenço & João Quelhas, 2023. "Navigating with a compass: Charting the course of underlying inflation," Working Papers w202317, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Michael P. Clements & Shixuan Wang, 2023. "Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-05, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
- Gogolev, Stepan & Ozhegov, Evgeniy, 2023. "Asymmetric loss function in product-level sales forecasting: An empirical comparison," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 70, pages 109-121.
- Stankevich, Ivan, 2023. "Application of Markov-Switching MIDAS models to nowcasting of GDP and its components," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 70, pages 122-143.
- Yosefizadeh, Hasan & Khalili, Farzaneh & Nadri, Kamran, 2023. "Investigating the Effects of Taxation on the Profit of Bank Deposits on Inflation and GDP of Iran's Economy in the Form of a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE)," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 10(1), pages 59-88, June.
- Etemadpur, Reza & Owjimehr, Sakine, 2023. "Evaluating the Role of Banking Facilities Distortions in the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks within the Framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: A Case Study of Iran," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 10(2), pages 145-182, September.
- Fokin Nikita (Фокин, Никита), 2023. "Nowcasting and Forecasting Key Russian Macroeconomic Variables With the MFBVAR Model [Наукастинг И Прогнозирование Основных Российских Макроэкономических Показателей С Помощью Mfbvar-Модели]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 110-135, June.
- Astafyeva, Ekaterina (Астафьева, Екатерина) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2023. "Analysis of the possibilities of improving the quality of forecasting prices for certain types of raw materials using the simplest methods of combining individual forecasts [Анализ Возможностей Пов," Working Papers w20220271, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
- Mihaela Simionescu, 2023. "Globalization And Pollution In Central And Eastern European Eu Countries," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 66-82, June.
- Imran Khan & Darshita Fulara Gunwant, 2023. "Is the remittance inflow to the Turkish economy sustainable? A glimpse of the future through the lens of the past," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 34-51, June.
- Ari Hyytinen & Petri Rouvinen & Mika Pajarinen & Joosua Virtanen, 2023. "Ex Ante Predictability of Rapid Growth: A Design Science Approach," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(6), pages 2465-2493, November.
- Mihail Yanchev, 2023. "Uncertainty - Definition and Classification for the Task of Economic Forecasting," Bulgarian Economic Papers bep-2023-03, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski - Bulgaria // Center for Economic Theories and Policies at Sofia University St Kliment Ohridski, revised Mar 2023.
- Laura Felber & Simon Beyeler, 2023. "Nowcasting economic activity using transaction payments data," Working Papers 2023-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Marie-Catherine Bieri, 2023. "Assessing economic sentiment with newspaper text indices: evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2023-07, Swiss National Bank.
- Joao Felix & Michel Alexandre & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "Applying Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict the Size of the Informal Economy," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_10, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 11 Sep 2023.
- Joao Vitor Matos Goncalves & Michel Alexandre & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "ARIMA and LSTM: A Comparative Analysis of Financial Time Series Forecasting," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
- Shyam Kumar Basnet & Ranjan Kumar Ghosh & Mattias Eriksson & Carl-Johan Lagerkvist, 2023. "The distortion in the EU feed market due to import constraints on genetically modified soy," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
- Christoph Hanck & Martin C. Arnold, 2023. "Hierarchical Bayes modelling of penalty conversion rates of Bundesliga players," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 177-204, March.
- Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panagiotis T. Cheilas & Ioannis G. Melissaropoulos & Panos Xidonas & Panayotis G. Michaelides, 2023. "Supply chains and fake news: a novel input–output neural network approach for the US food sector," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 327(2), pages 779-794, August.
- Georgios Fatouros & Georgios Makridis & Dimitrios Kotios & John Soldatos & Michael Filippakis & Dimosthenis Kyriazis, 2023. "DeepVaR: a framework for portfolio risk assessment leveraging probabilistic deep neural networks," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 29-56, March.
- Brian Colgan, 2023. "EU-SILC and the potential for synthetic panel estimates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1247-1280, March.
- Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
- Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Forecasting in the presence of in-sample and out-of-sample breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3001-3035, June.
- Ayman Mnasri & Zouhair Mrabet & Mouyad Alsamara, 2023. "A new quadratic asymmetric error correction model: does size matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 33-64, July.
- Rodrigo Mulero & Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux, 2023. "Forecasting unemployment with Google Trends: age, gender and digital divide," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 587-605, August.
- Hwee Kwan Chow & Yijie Fei & Daniel Han, 2023. "Forecasting GDP with many predictors in a small open economy: forecast or information pooling?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 805-829, August.
- Jie Cheng, 2023. "Modelling and forecasting risk dependence and portfolio VaR for cryptocurrencies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 899-924, August.
- Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "A tale of two recession-derivative indicators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 925-947, August.
- Weijia Peng & Chun Yao, 2023. "Sector-level equity returns predictability with machine learning and market contagion measure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1761-1798, October.
- Anna Kiziltan & Mustafa Kiziltan & Shihomi Ara Aksoy & Merih Aydınalp Köksal & Ş. Elçin Tekeli & Nilhan Duran & S. Yeşer Aslanoğlu & Fatma Öztürk & Nazan Özyürek & Pervin Doğan & Ağça Gül Yılmaz & Can, 2023. "Cost–benefit analysis of road-transport policy options to combat air pollution in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10765-10798, October.
- India Flint & Jasmina Medjedovic & Ewa Drogon O’Flaherty & Elena Alvarez-Baron & Karthinathan Thangavelu & Natasa Savic & Aurelie Meunier & Louise Longworth, 2023. "Mapping analysis to predict SF-6D utilities from health outcomes in people with focal epilepsy," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(7), pages 1061-1072, September.
- Tiago E. Pratas & Filipe R. Ramos & Lihki Rubio, 2023. "Forecasting bitcoin volatility: exploring the potential of deep learning," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 285-305, June.
- James Yae & Yang Luo, 2023. "Robust monitoring machine: a machine learning solution for out-of-sample R $$^2$$ 2 -hacking in return predictability monitoring," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, December.
- Sacchidananda Mukherjee & Rudrani Bhattacharya, 2023. "Revenue forecasting of corporate income tax (CIT) in India," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 329-349, December.
- Jan Niederreiter, 2023. "Broadening Economics in the Era of Artificial Intelligence and Experimental Evidence," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(1), pages 265-294, March.
- Giorgio Gnecco & Sara Landi & Massimo Riccaboni, 2023. "Can Machines Learn Creativity Needs? An Approach Based on Matrix Completion," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(3), pages 1111-1151, November.
- Christian Lohmann & Steffen Möllenhoff & Thorsten Ohliger, 2023. "Nonlinear relationships in bankruptcy prediction and their effect on the profitability of bankruptcy prediction models," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1661-1690, November.
- Tobias Götze & Marc Gürtler & Eileen Witowski, 2023. "Forecasting accuracy of machine learning and linear regression: evidence from the secondary CAT bond market," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(9), pages 1629-1660, November.
- Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023.
"ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
- Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 10449, CESifo.
- Satoshi Urasawa, 2023. "The Usefulness of High-Frequency Alternative Data to Obtain Nowcasts for Japan’s GDP: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 191-211, September.
- Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2023.
"Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series: An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(3), pages 241-273, November.
- Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Boriss Silverstovs, 2022. "Imputing monthly values for quarterly time series. An application performed with Swiss business cycle data," KOF Working papers 22-509, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2022. "Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10191, CESifo.
- Saulius Jokubaitis & Dmitrij Celov, 2023. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EU: A Regional-Sectoral Look through Soft-Clustering and Wavelet Decomposition," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(3), pages 311-371, November.
- Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2023. "Volatility spillovers between oil and financial markets during economic and financial crises: A dynamic approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 1018-1040, December.
- Mihaela Simionescu & Nicolas Schneider, 2023.
"Monetary shocks and production network in the G7 countries,"
Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, December.
- Simionescu, Mihaela & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Monetary shocks and production network in the G7 countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123040, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Paul M. Torrens, 2023. "Agent models of customer journeys on retail high streets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(1), pages 87-128, January.
- Mustafa Yurtsever, 2023. "Unemployment rate forecasting: LSTM-GRU hybrid approach," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 57(1), pages 1-9, December.
- Zouheir Mighri & Raouf Jaziri, 2023. "Long-Memory, Asymmetry and Fat-Tailed GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Global Real Estate Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 41-97, March.
- Rudrani Bhattacharya & Bornali Bhandari & Sudipto Mundle, 2023. "Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time-Varying Coefficient Regression Model (FA-TVCRM)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 213-234, March.
- Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir & Jamaladeen Abubakar, 2023. "Small open economies and external shocks: an application of Bayesian global vector autoregression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1673-1699, April.
- Afees A. Salisu & Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Philip C. Omoke, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic and financial innovations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3885-3904, August.
- Matthias Breuer & Harm H. Schütt, 2023. "Accounting for uncertainty: an application of Bayesian methods to accruals models," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 726-768, June.
- Krzysztof Rusek & Agnieszka Kleszcz & Albert Cabellos-Aparicio, 2023. "Bayesian inference of spatial and temporal relations in AI patents for EU countries," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(6), pages 3313-3335, June.
- Sylvia Kaufmann, 2023. "Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-10, December.
- Stavros Degiannakis, 2023.
"The D-model for GDP nowcasting,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-33, December.
- Stavros Degiannakis, 2023. "The D-model for GDP nowcasting," Working Papers 317, Bank of Greece.
- Peter Kugler & George Sheldon, 2023. "A monthly leading indicator of Swiss GDP growth based on Okun’s law," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-14, December.
- Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
- Pami Dua & Rajiv Ranjan & Deepika Goel, 2023. "Forecasting the INR/USD Exchange Rate: A BVAR Framework," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 183-224, Springer.
- Timothy Neal, 2023. "The Importance of External Weather Effects in Projecting the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Discussion Papers 2023-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Clements, Adam & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2023. "Combining simple multivariate HAR-like models for portfolio construction," Working Papers BAWP-2023-03, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
- Kajal Lahiri & Junyan Zhang & Yongchen Zhao, 2023.
"Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1353-1357, June.
- Kajal Lahiri & Junyan Zhang & Yongchen Zhao, 2021. "Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 9415, CESifo.
- Jiqian Wang & Rangan Gupta & Oğuzhan Çepni & Feng Ma, 2023.
"Forecasting international REITs volatility: the role of oil-price uncertainty,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(14), pages 1579-1597, September.
- Jiqian Wang & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Feng Ma, 2021. "Forecasting International REITs Volatility: The Role of Oil-Price Uncertainty," Working Papers 202173, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023.
"Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility: Evidence from Machine Learning,"
Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 111-122, January.
- Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility : Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202118, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Matteo Iacopini & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2023.
"Bayesian Dynamic Tensor Regression,"
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"When are Google Data Useful to Nowcast GDP? An Approach via Preselection and Shrinkage,"
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"Quasi score-driven models,"
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"Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis,"
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"Is participatory democracy in line with social protest? Evidence from the French Yellow Vests movement,"
Public Choice, Springer, vol. 197(1), pages 283-309, October.
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"Is participatory democracy in line with social protest? Evidence from the French Yellow Vests movement,"
Public Choice, Springer, vol. 197(1), pages 283-309, October.
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"Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers,"
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"Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks,"
CAMA Working Papers
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"Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
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"Predicting re-employment: machine learning versus assessments by unemployed workers and by their caseworkers,"
Working Paper Series
2023:22, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
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- van den Berg, Gerard J. & Kunaschk, Max & Lang, Julia & Stephan, Gesine & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2024. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning Versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," IAB-Discussion Paper 202403, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Gerard J. van den Berg & Max Kunaschk & Julia Lang & Gesine Stephan & Arne Uhlendorf, 2023. "Predicting Re-Employment: Machine Learning Versus Assessments by Unemployed Workers and by Their Caseworkers," Working Papers 2023-09, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
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"Comparing Out-of-Sample Performance of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast U.S. GDP Growth,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 1567-1609, December.
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"Is participatory democracy in line with social protest? Evidence from the French Yellow Vests movement,"
Public Choice, Springer, vol. 197(1), pages 283-309, October.
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"Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts,"
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"Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1191-1206, September.
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"The Forward Guidance Puzzle,"
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- Jianghao Chu & Tae-Hwy Lee & Aman Ullah, 2023. "Asymmetric AdaBoost for High-dimensional Maximum Score Regression," Working Papers 202306, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
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"Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments,"
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- Tae-Hwy Lee & Tao Wang, 2023. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality with Many Moments," Working Papers 202307, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina & Yaojue Xu, 2023. "Elicitability and Encompassing for Volatility Forecasts by Bregman Functions," Working Papers 202311, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Vladimir M. Markovic & Nikola Radivojevic & Tatjana Ivanovic & Slobodan Radisic & Nenad Novakovic, 2023. "The quantum harmonic oscillator expected shortfall model," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 50(2 Year 20), pages 233-261, December.
- Mihnea Constantinescu, 2023. "Sparse Warcasting," Working Papers 01/2023, National Bank of Ukraine.
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- Mishra Akshay Kumar & Kumar Rahul & Bal Debi Prasad, 2023. "ESG Volatility Prediction Using GARCH and LSTM Models," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 97-114, December.
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- Ciocîrlan Cecilia & Zwak-Cantoriu Maria-Cristina & Stancea Andreea & Plăcintă Dimitrie-Daniel, 2023. "European Macroeconomic Dynamics on Financial Markets and Economic Policy: A Cross Country Study for Spillover Effects," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(3), pages 40-63, December.
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"Estimating and Applying Autoregression Models via Their Eigensystem Representation,"
CAMA Working Papers
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- Leo Krippner, 2023. "Estimating and Applying Autoregression Models Via Their Eigensystem Representation," Working Papers in Economics 23/09, University of Waikato.
- Maudud Hassan Uzzal & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "The performance of time series forecasting based on classical and machine learning methods for S&P 500 index," Working Papers 2023-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Konrad Lewszyk & Piotr Wójcik, 2023. "Modelling Subjective Attractiveness," Working Papers 2023-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Karol Chojnacki & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "This study compares well-known tools of technical analysis (Moving Average Crossover MAC) with Machine Learning based strategies (LSTM and XGBoost) and Ensembled Machine Learning Strategies (LSTM ense," Working Papers 2023-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Damian Ślusarczyk & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "Optimal Markowitz Portfolio Using Returns Forecasted with Time Series and Machine Learning Models," Working Papers 2023-17, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Paweł Jakubowski & Robert Ślepaczuk & Franciszek Windorbski, 2023. "REnsembling ARIMAX Model in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on Commodities Market," Working Papers 2023-20, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
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"Mean Absolute Directional Loss as a New Loss Function for Machine Learning Problems in Algorithmic Investment Strategies,"
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- Jakub Micha'nk'ow & Pawe{l} Sakowski & Robert 'Slepaczuk, 2023.
"Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices,"
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- Jakub Michańków & Paweł Sakowski & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices," Working Papers 2023-25, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Sahil Teymurzade & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2023. "Predicting DJIA, NASDAQ and NYSE index prices using ARIMA and VAR models," Working Papers 2023-27, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2023. "Carpe Diem: Can daily oil prices improve model-based forecasts of the real price of crude oil?," LCERPA Working Papers bm0141, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
- Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, Lenin Arango-Castillo, 2023. "Seize the Last Day: Period-End-Point Sampling for Forecasts of Temporally Aggregated Data," LCERPA Working Papers bm0142, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2023.
"Bayesian Dynamic Variable Selection In High Dimensions,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1047-1074, August.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2018. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," Papers 1809.03031, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
- Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary, 2020. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," MPRA Paper 100164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "Bayesian dynamic variable selection in high dimensions," Working Papers 2020_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023.
"Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
- Clark, Todd & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," CEPR Discussion Papers 17461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023.
"Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
- Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2023.
"Censored density forecasts: Production and evaluation,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 714-734, August.
- James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2021. "Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation," Working Papers 21-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 Aug 2022.
- Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023.
"Employment reconciliation and nowcasting,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.
- Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021. "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers 2021-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- William A. Barnett & Sohee Park, 2023.
"Forecasting inflation and output growth with credit‐card‐augmented Divisia monetary aggregates,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 331-346, March.
- William A. Barnett & Sohee Park, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202120, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
- Barnett, William & Park, Sohee, 2021. "Forecasting Inflation and Output Growth with Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," MPRA Paper 110298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2023.
"Forecasting inflation: The use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 514-529, April.
- Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2022. "Forecasting Inflation: The Use of Dynamic Factor Analysis and Nonlinear Combinations," Discussion Papers 22-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & Yongli Wang, 2023. "Forecasting inflation: the use of dynamic factor analysis and nonlinear combinations," Working Papers 314, Bank of Greece.
- Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Gabe J. de Bondt & Arne Gieseck, 2023.
"Forecasting housing investment,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 543-565, April.
- Martínez, Carlos Cañizares & de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne, 2023. "Forecasting housing investment," Working Paper Series 2807, European Central Bank.
- Matteo Bonato & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023.
"El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 785-801, July.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "El Nino, La Nina, and Forecastability of the Realized Variance of Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach," Working Papers 202179, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023.
"Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
- Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2022. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: the role of financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1362, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2023.
"Policy uncertainty and stock market volatility revisited: The predictive role of signal quality,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2307-2321, December.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility Revisited: The Predictive Role of Signal Quality," Working Papers 202232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Grigorios Siourounis & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023.
"Superkurtosis,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2061-2091, December.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Siourounis, Grigorios & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2019. "Superkurtosis," MPRA Paper 94473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Grigorios Siourounis & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "Superkurtosis," Working Papers 318, Bank of Greece.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Siourounis, Grigorios & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2019. "Superkurtosis," MPRA Paper 96563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2023.
"Forecasting with a panel Tobit model,"
Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 117-159, January.
- Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2019. "Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model," NBER Working Papers 26569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2019. "Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model," CAEPR Working Papers 2019-005, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2021. "Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model," Papers 2110.14117, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
- Szydlo, Jan, 2023. "Forecasting Credit Dynamics : VAR, VECM or modern Factor-Augmented VAR approach?," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 63, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
- Christian Pierdzioch & Sebastian Rohloff & Roland Von Campe, 2023. "On the Predictive Value of the (Shadow) Real Interest Rate for the Realized Volatility of Gold-Price Returns," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-16, March.
- Marc S. Paolella & Paweł Polak, 2023. "Density and Risk Prediction with Non-Gaussian COMFORT Models," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-37, March.
- Francisca Mendonça Souza & Claudia Aline de Souza Ramser & Adriano Mendonça Souza & Claudimar Pereira da Veiga, 2023. "Spillover Effects in the Presence of Structural Breaks, Persistence and Conditioned Heteroscedasticity," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 1-51, June.
- Fazlul Miah, 2023. "News And Information Rigidity: Further Evidence From Gdp Growth Forecasts," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(01n04), pages 1-21, December.
- Mohamad Hassan Shahrour & Mostafa Dekmak, 2023. "Intelligent stock prediction: A neural network approach," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-14, March.
- Bolin Lei & Yuping Song, 2023. "The impact of contagion effects of media reports, investors’ sentiment and attention on the stock market based on HAR-RV model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-54, June.
- Sanjeev Kadam & Anshul Agrawal & Aryan Bajaj & Rachit Agarwal & Rameesha Kalra & Jaymin Shah, 2023. "Predicting Crude Oil Future Price Using Traditional and Artificial Intelligence-Based Model: Comparative Analysis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 1-15, October.
- Alexander Correa, 2023. "Predicting Business Bankruptcy in Colombian SMEs: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 1-21, October.
- Benedict Foo & Deng Yao Koh & Juan Pang Tan & Wenjie Wang, 2023. "FORECASTING SINGAPORE’s ECONOMY USING STATISTICAL LEARNING AND FACTOR MODELS," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 68(02), pages 319-353.
- Qu Feng & Shihao Zhou, 2023. "Electricity Market Liberalization And Efficiency: Evidence From Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 68(03), pages 651-669, June.
- Young Bin Ahn & Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2023. "Directional Accuracy Of Singapore’S Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 68(05), pages 1569-1583, September.
- Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2024.
"Measuring persistent global economic factors with output, commodity price, and commodity currency data,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2860-2885, November.
- Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2023. "Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data," Working Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Xin Jing & Jin Seo Cho, 2023. "Forecasting the Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Using Modal Regression," Working papers 2023rwp-217, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
- Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023.
"Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany,"
Discussion Papers
34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2024. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany," Working Paper Series 2930, European Central Bank.
- Stempel, Daniel & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whose inflation rates matter most? A DSGE model and machine learning approach to monetary policy in the Euro area," IMFS Working Paper Series 188, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021.
"Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks,"
MAGKS Papers on Economics
202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker: Embedding their words using neural networks," IMFS Working Paper Series 194, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Zahner, Johannes & Baumgärtner, Martin, 2022. "Whatever it Takes to Understand a Central Banker – Embedding their Words Using Neural Networks," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264019, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Drygalla, Andrej & Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Lindner, Axel & Sardone, Alessandro & Schult, Christoph & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz, 2023. "Grüne Transformation und Schuldenbremse: Implikationen zusätzlicher Investitionen für öffentliche Finanzen und privaten Konsum," Konjunktur aktuell, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 11(4), pages 141-159.
- Frank, Johannes, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility in turbulent times using temporal fusion transformers," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 03/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
- Benjamin Born & Zeno Enders & Manuel Menkhoff & Gernot J. Müller & Knut Niemann & Gernot Müller, 2022.
"Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
10192, CESifo.
- Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot J. & Niemann, Knut, 2023. "Firm expectations and news: Micro v macro," Working Papers 43, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Benjamin Born & Zeno Enders & Manuel Menkhoff & Gernot J. Müller & Knut Niemann, 2023. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," ifo Working Paper Series 400, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Veggente, Veronica, 2024.
"Learning from experts: Energy efficiency in residential buildings,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Veggente, Veronica, 2023. "Learning from experts: Energy efficiency in residential buildings," SAFE Working Paper Series 403, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022.
"What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?,"
Working Papers
22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Ganics, Gergely & Mertens, Elmar & Clark, Todd E., 2023. "What Is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277622, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Stempel, Daniel & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whose Inflation Rates Matter Most? A DSGE Model and Machine Learning Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277627, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Holtemöller, Oliver & Kozyrev, Boris, 2023. "Forecasting Economic Activity with a Neural Network in Uncertain Times: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to German GDP," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277688, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023.
"Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Janßen, Rebecca & Ribar, Matthew K., 2023. "In vi(vi)no veritas? Expertise, review accuracy and reputation inflation," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-075, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Iva Tolic Mandic & Sanja Tisma & Daniela Angelina Jelincic & Damir Demonja, 2023. "Smart Solutions for Sustainable Tourism Pearls: How to Live Between Culture and Tourism in Dubrovnik," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 21(3), pages 272-296.
2022
- Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022.
"A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
- Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation," Economic Research Papers 269087, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
- Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "A model of FED'S view on inflation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Thomas Hasenzagl & Fillipo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "A model of the FED's view on inflation," Working Papers hal-03458456, HAL.
- Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1145, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022.
"The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
- Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2019. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-328, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Bazzi, Samuel & Blair, Robert & Blattman, Chris & Dube, Oeindrila & Gudgeon, Matthew & Peck, Richard, 2019. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," SocArXiv bkrn8, Center for Open Science.
- Blattman, Christopher & Dube, Oeindrila & Bazzi, Samuel & Gudgeon, Matthew & Peck, Richard & Blair, Robert, 2019. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," CEPR Discussion Papers 13829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Merton Peck, 2019. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," NBER Working Papers 25980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aman Ullah & Tao Wang & Weixin Yao, 2022.
"Nonlinear modal regression for dependent data with application for predicting COVID‐19,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(3), pages 1424-1453, July.
- Aman Ullah & Tao Wang & Weixin Yao, 2022. "Nonlinear Modal Regression for Dependent Data with Application for Predicting COVID-19," Working Papers 202207, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022.
"Optimal forecast under structural breaks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 965-987, August.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal Forecast under Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202207, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal Forecast under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 202208, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022.
"Forecasting Under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1485-1501, December.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Forecasting under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202212, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Forecasting under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation," Working Papers 202210, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Diana Balioz, 2022. "Short-Term Forecasting of Global Energy and Metal Prices: VAR and VECM Approaches," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 254, pages 15-28.
- Yuriy Kleban & Tetiana Stasiuk, 2022. "Crypto Currency Price Forecast: Neural Network Perspectives," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 254, pages 29-42.
- Kaan Arik & Murat Gezer & Seda Tolun Tayali, 2022. "The study of indicators affecting customer churn in MMORPG games with machine learning models," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 13(6), pages 70-85, January.
- Daniel Goller & Sandro Heiniger, 2024.
"A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests,"
Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(1), pages 71-93, October.
- Goller, Daniel & Heiniger, Sandro, 2022. "A general framework to quantify the event importance in multi-event contests," Economics Working Paper Series 2204, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
- Todd H. Kuethe & Brady Brewer & Chad Fiechter, 2022. "Loss Aversion in Farmland Price Expectations," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 98(1), pages 98-114.
- Matthew C. TRIMBLE, 2022. "Regression Promises And Aggregation Bias Illusions The Application Of Market Delineation To Land Valuation Models," The Valuation Journal, The National Association of Authorized Romanian Valuers, vol. 18(1), pages 56-95.
- Sroka Łukasz, 2022. "Applying Block Bootstrap Methods in Silver Prices Forecasting," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 26(2), pages 15-29, June.
- Fatih Chellai, 2022. "Forecasting Models Based on Fuzzy Logic: An Application on International Coffee Prices," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 26(4), pages 1-16, December.
- Srhoj Stjepan, 2022. "Can we predict high growth firms with financial ratios?," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 66-73, March.
- Płaza Natalia & Žilinskienė Deimantė, 2022. "The Role of Customs Procedures in Reduction of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul Costs in the Aviation Industry," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 18(2), pages 67-82, June.
- Koloane Cathrine Thato & Bodhlyera Oliver, 2022. "A statistical approach to modeling the underground economy in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 44(1), pages 64-95, January.
- Baiquan Ma & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "The profitability of pairs trading strategies on Hong-Kong stock market: distance, cointegration, and correlation methods," Working Papers 2022-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Maciej Wysocki & Paweł Sakowski, 2022. "Investment Portfolio Optimization Based on Modern Portfolio Theory and Deep Learning Models," Working Papers 2022-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Illia Baranochnikov & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy," Working Papers 2022-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Katarzyna Kryńska & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 2022-25, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Thi Thu Giang Nguyen & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "The efficiency of various types of input layers of LSTM model in investment strategies on S&P500 index," Working Papers 2022-29, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Thi Huyen Tran & Robert Ślepaczuk, 2022. "Quantile regression analysis to predict GDP distribution using data from the US and UK," Working Papers 2022-30, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
- Kibrom A Abay & Nishant Yonzan & Sikandra Kurdi & Kibrom Tafere, 2023.
"Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic,"
Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 44-68.
- Abay, Kibrom A. & Yonzan, Nishant & Kurdi, Sikandra & Tafere, Kibrom, 2022. "Revisiting poverty trends and the role of social protection systems in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic," IFPRI discussion papers 2142, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Abay,Kibrom A. & Yonzan,Nishant & Kurdi,Sikandra Smith & Hirfrfot,Kibrom Tafere, 2022. "Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during theCOVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10172, The World Bank.
- Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Kader Touré, 2022.
"Macroeconomic uncertainty and the COVID‐19 pandemic: Measure and impacts on the Canadian economy,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 379-405, February.
- Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Kader Toure, 2020. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Measure and Impacts on the Canadian Economy," Working Papers 20-18, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Dec 2020.
- Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Abdel Kader Touré, 2020. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Measure and Impacts on the Canadian Economy," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-47, CIRANO.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2022.
"A moving average heterogeneous autoregressive model for forecasting the realized volatility of the US stock market: Evidence from over a century of data,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 384-400, January.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2019. "A Moving Average Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model for Forecasting the Realized Volatility of the US Stock Market: Evidence from Over a Century of Data," Working Papers 201978, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Edmond Berisha & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta, 2022.
"The predictive power of the term spread on inequality in the United Kingdom: An empirical analysis,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1979-1988, April.
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"Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
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"Common factors of commodity prices,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
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Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 583-602, April.
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Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 640-656, April.
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"The global component of inflation volatility,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
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- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022.
"Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 843-866, August.
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- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022.
"How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
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"Optimal forecast under structural breaks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 965-987, August.
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"Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi‐country context,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1230-1255, September.
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"Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
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"Forecasting realized volatility of international REITs: The role of realized skewness and realized kurtosis,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 303-315, March.
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"Random forest versus logit models: Which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 455-490, April.
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"Nowcasting world GDP growth with high‐frequency data,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1181-1200, September.
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"Forgetting approaches to improve forecasting,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1356-1371, November.
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"Uncertainty and predictability of real housing returns in the United Kingdom: A regional analysis,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1525-1556, November.
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"Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys,"
Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 979-1022, July.
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"A Note On Uncertainty Due To Infectious Diseases And Output Growth Of The United States: A Mixed-Frequency Forecasting Experiment,"
Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(02), pages 1-9, June.
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"Can Investors Benefit from Hedge Fund Strategies? Utility-Based, Out-of-Sample Evidence,"
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"Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1403-1417, September.
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"Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections,"
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"Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks,"
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"Money Demand in China: A Meta Study,"
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"Predicting agri-food quality across space: A Machine Learning model for the acknowledgment of Geographical Indications,"
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"The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out,"
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"The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention,"
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- Sebastian Bayer & Timo Dimitriadis, 2022. "Regression-Based Expected Shortfall Backtesting [Backtesting Expected Shortfall]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 437-471.
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- Gianluca De Nard, 2022. "Oops! I Shrunk the Sample Covariance Matrix Again: Blockbuster Meets Shrinkage [Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 569-611.
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- Arnaud Dufays & Elysee Aristide Houndetoungan & Alain Coën, 2022.
"Selective Linear Segmentation for Detecting Relevant Parameter Changes [Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds],"
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- Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S Pakkanen, 2022. "Decoupling the Short- and Long-Term Behavior of Stochastic Volatility [Multifactor Approximation of Rough Volatility Models]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 961-1006.
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- Walid Mansour & Hechem Ajmi & Karima Saci, 2022. "Regulatory policies in the global Islamic banking sector in the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 265-287, September.
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"A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability,"
Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(89), pages 150-183.
- Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 77027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos A. Medel, 2022. "Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within an EmploymentSurvey: Microdata Evidence from Chile," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(89), pages 184-216.
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"A benchmark model for fixed-target Arctic sea ice forecasting,"
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- Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel, 2022. "A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023.
"When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
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- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Maximilian Gobel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Maximilian Göbel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Boyuan Zhang, 2022. "When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume," NBER Working Papers 30732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe, 2023.
"Assessing and comparing fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice: Glide charts for feature-engineered linear regression and machine learning models,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
- Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Goebel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice: Glide Charts for Feature-Engineered Linear Regression and Machine Learning Models," Papers 2206.10721, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
- Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice:Glide Charts for Feature-Engineered Linear Regression and Machine Learning Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Maximilian Gobel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "Assessing and Comparing Fixed-Target Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice: Glide Charts for Feature-Engineered Linear Regression and Machine Learning Models," Working Papers 22-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
- Katarina Kramarova & Lucia Svabova & Barbora Gabrikova, 2022. "Impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on unemployment in Slovakia: a statistically created counterfactual approach using the time series analysis," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 343-389, June.
- Andrea Kolková & Petr Rozehnal, 2022. "Hybrid demand forecasting models: pre-pandemic and pandemic use studies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(3), pages 699-725, September.
- Beata Gavurova & Sylvia Jencova & Radovan Bacik & Marta Miskufova & Stanislav Letkovsky, 2022. "Artificial intelligence in predicting the bankruptcy of non-financial corporations," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 1215-1251, December.
- Syed Ateeb Akhter Shah & Muhammad Ishtiaq & Sumbal Qureshi & Kaneez Fatima, 2022. "Inflation Forecasting for Pakistan in a Data-rich Environment (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 643-658.
- Sonan Memon, 2022. "Inflation in Pakistan: High-Frequency Estimation and Forecasting," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:12, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
- Weshah Razzak, 2021.
"The Ownership of Oil, Democracy, and Iraq's Past, Present and Future,"
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- Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024.
"Correlation‐based tests of predictability,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1835-1858, September.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2022. "Correlation Based Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 112014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Arikha, Dahlia, 2022. "Strategi Pembangunan Ekonomi Islam M. Umer Chapra [The Strategy of Islamic Economic Development in Perspective of M. Umer Chapra]," MPRA Paper 112257, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Feb 2022.
- G.K., Chetan Kumar & K.B., Rangappa & S., Suchitra, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of Companies’ Investment on Skill Upgradation in Improving their Resilience amidst COVID-19," MPRA Paper 112425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Naimoli, Antonio, 2022. "The information content of sentiment indices for forecasting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall in equity markets," MPRA Paper 112588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2022.
"Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States,"
ifo Working Paper Series
370, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Lehmann, Robert & Wikman, Ida, 2022. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States," MPRA Paper 112642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2023. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10280, CESifo.
- Li, Chenxing, 2022. "A multivariate GARCH model with an infinite hidden Markov mixture," MPRA Paper 112792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dean Fantazzini, 2022.
"Crypto-Coins and Credit Risk: Modelling and Forecasting Their Probability of Death,"
JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-34, July.
- Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Crypto Coins and Credit Risk: Modelling and Forecasting their Probability of Death," MPRA Paper 113744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anastasiou, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2022. "Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator," MPRA Paper 113860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- G.K., Chetan Kumar & K.B., Rangappa & S., Suchitra, 2022. "Normative analysis of the impact of Covid-19 on prominent sectors of Indian economy by using ARCH Model," MPRA Paper 114027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2022.
"Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Agency Forecasts,"
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers
541, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2022. "Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Agency Forecasts," MPRA Paper 114325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cengiz, Doruk & Tekgüç, Hasan, 2022. "Counterfactual Reconciliation: Incorporating Aggregation Constraints For More Accurate Causal Effect Estimates," MPRA Paper 114478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Silva Lopes, Artur, 2022. "Feels Like Going Backwards: Assessing Income Convergence with a Long-Run Forecasting Approach," MPRA Paper 114488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chenxing Li & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2024.
"An infinite hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2187-2211, September.
- Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 115456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yang, Zixiu & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Using crypto assets pricing methods to build technical oscillators for short-term bitcoin trading," MPRA Paper 115508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Importance of Total Coupon in Utility Maximization: A Sensitivity Analysis," MPRA Paper 115553, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Sep 2022.
- Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2023.
"Asymmetry and interdependence when evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
- Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan & Zhang, Yunyi, 2022. "Asymmetry and Interdependence when Evaluating U.S. Energy Information Administration Forecasts," MPRA Paper 115559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Utility Maximization Analysis of an Organization: A Mathematical Economic Procedure," MPRA Paper 115791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2022.
- Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Utility maximization analysis of an emerging firm: a bordered Hessian approach," MPRA Paper 115838, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Sep 2022.
- Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Mathematical Analysis of SEIR Model to Prevent COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 115858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2022.
- Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Sensitivity Analysis between Lagrange Multipliers and Consumer Coupon: Utility Maximization Perspective," MPRA Paper 116022, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Sep 2022.
- Jadidzadeh, Ali, 2022. "An Application of Smooth Transition Regression Models to Homeless Research," MPRA Paper 116356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Sensitivity Analysis between Commodity and Budget: Utility Maximization Case," MPRA Paper 116495, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2022.
- Lycheva, Maria & Mironenkov, Alexey & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022.
"Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 28-49.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Mironenkov, Alexey & Lycheva, Maria, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data," MPRA Paper 118239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brahmana, Rayenda Khresna, 2022. "Do Machine Learning Approaches Have the Same Accuracy in Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Volatilities?," MPRA Paper 119598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Majumder, Rajarshi & Ghosh, Subhadip & Chatterjee, Bidisha, 2022. "Energy infrastructure in India: challenges and opportunities," MPRA Paper 120106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ubilava, David & Valera, Harold Glenn & Pede, Valerien, 2022. "The Rice Market Reaction to El Nino Southern Oscillation Shocks," MPRA Paper 123384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024.
"Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
- Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Regime-Switching GARCH-MIDAS: The Role of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 202203, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022.
"Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
- Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Daniel Pienaar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Forecasting the Realized Variance of Oil-Price Returns Using Machine-Learning: Is there a Role for U.S. State-Level Uncertainty?," Working Papers 202205, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023.
"Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and Realized Volatility of Major Commodity Currency Exchange Rates," Working Papers 202210, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2023.
"Testing the forecasting power of global economic conditions for the volatility of international REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 303-314.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2022. "Testing the Forecasting Power of Global Economic Conditions for the Volatility of International REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202211, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bouri, Elie & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2022.
"Forecasting returns of major cryptocurrencies: Evidence from regime-switching factor models,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
- Elie Bouri & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting Returns of Major Cryptocurrencies: Evidence from Regime-Switching Factor Models," Working Papers 202213, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Do Economic Conditions of U.S. States Predict the Realized Volatility of Oil-Price Returns? A Quantile Machine-Learning Approach," Working Papers 202216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022.
"Oil-Price Uncertainty and International Stock Returns: Dissecting Quantile-Based Predictability and Spillover Effects Using More than a Century of Data,"
Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil-Price Uncertainty and International Stock Returns: Dissecting Quantile-Based Predictability and Spillover Effects Using More than a Century of Data," Working Papers 202217, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Luca Rossini, 2022. "The Role of the Monthly ENSO in Forecasting the Daily Baltic Dry Index," Working Papers 202229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2023.
"Policy uncertainty and stock market volatility revisited: The predictive role of signal quality,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2307-2321, December.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility Revisited: The Predictive Role of Signal Quality," Working Papers 202232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2022. "Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model," Working Papers 202234, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Salisu, Afees A. & Ji, Qiang, 2023.
"Predictability of economic slowdowns in advanced countries over eight centuries: The role of climate risks,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Afees A. Salisu & Qiang Ji, 2022. "Predictability of Economic Slowdowns in Advanced Countries over Eight Centuries: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202237, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Goodness C. Aye & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Forecasting More than Three Centuries of Economic Growth of the United Kingdom: The Role of Climate Risks," Working Papers 202238, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Karmakar, Sayar & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan & Rognone, Lavinia, 2023.
"Climate risks and predictability of the trading volume of gold: Evidence from an INGARCH model,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Lavinia Rognone, 2022. "Climate Risks and Predictability of the Trading Volume of Gold: Evidence from an INGARCH Model," Working Papers 202241, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Jacobus Nel & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Climate Risks And Predictability Of Commodity Returns And Volatility: Evidence From Over 750 Years Of Data,"
Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 1-40, November.
- Jacobus Nel & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and Predictability of Commodity Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Over 750 Years of Data," Working Papers 202242, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023.
"Climate risks and state-level stock market realized volatility,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and State-Level Stock-Market Realized Volatility," Working Papers 202246, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024.
"Business applications and state‐level stock market realized volatility: A forecasting experiment,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 456-472, March.
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Business Applications and State-Level Stock Market Realized Volatility: A Forecasting Experiment," Working Papers 202247, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2024.
"Climate risks and forecastability of the weekly state‐level economic conditions of the United States,"
International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 154-162, March.
- Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Wenting Liao & Jun Ma, 2022. "Climate Risks and Forecastability of the Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions of the United States," Working Papers 202251, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Cepni, Oguzhan & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2023.
"Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: Evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
- Oguzhan Cepni & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting National Recessions of the United States with State-Level Climate Risks: Evidence from Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models," Working Papers 202252, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Jiawen Luo & Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting Multivariate Volatilities with Exogenous Predictors: An Application to Industry Diversification Strategies," Working Papers 202258, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Muhammad Usman, 2022. "Price Efficiency, Bubbles, Crashes and Crash Risk: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3-4), pages 236-258.
- Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta, 2022. "How Bad Can Financial Crises Be? A GDP Tail Risk Assessment for Portugal," Working Papers w202204, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Robert A. Hill & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2022.
"Forgetting approaches to improve forecasting,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1356-1371, November.
- Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Robert Hill, 2022. "Forgetting Approaches to Improve Forecasting," Working Papers w202208, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Kaelo Ntwaepelo & Grivas Chiyaba, 2022. "Financial Stability Surveillance Tools: Evaluating the Performance of Stress Indices," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
- Kulvik, Martti & Lintunen, Jussi & Kunttu, Janni & Orfanidou, Timokleia, 2022. "Management Practices and Use of Finnish Forests: Conclusions and Recommendations of the FutureForest2040 Project I," ETLA Brief 114, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Kulvik, Martti & Lintunen, Jussi & Kunttu, Janni & Orfanidou, Timokleia, 2022. "Forest-based Production in Finland: Conclusions and Recommendations of the FutureForest2040 Project II," ETLA Brief 115, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Berg-Andersson, Birgitta & Kulvik, Martti & Lintunen, Jussi & Kunttu, Janni & Orfanidou, Timokleia, 2022. "Structural Changes in the Finnish Forest-based Sector, and Market and Employment Impacts in 2040," ETLA Reports 131, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Gharoie Ahangar, Reza & Kim, Myungsup, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 Shocks on Business and GDP of Global Economy," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 25(2), pages 328-354, November.
- Amaro, Raphael & Pinho, Carlos & Madaleno, Mara, 2022. "Forecasting the Value-at-Risk of energy commodities: A comparison of models and alternative distribution functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 65, pages 77-101.
- Zubarev, Andrei & Kirillova, Maria, 2022. "Modeling COVID-19 spread in the Russian Federation using global VAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 65, pages 117-138.
- Arı, Yakup, 2022. "USD/TRY and foreign banks in Turkey: Evidence by TVP-VAR," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 67, pages 5-26.
- Amaro, Raphael & Pinho, Carlos, 2022. "Energy commodities: A study on model selection for estimating Value-at-Risk," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 5-27.
- Lycheva, Maria & Mironenkov, Alexey & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022.
"Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 28-49.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Mironenkov, Alexey & Lycheva, Maria, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data," MPRA Paper 118239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2024.
"The profitability of lead–lag arbitrage at high frequency,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1002-1021.
- Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2022. "The Profitability of Lead-Lag Arbitrage at High-Frequency," Working Papers 22-5, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
- Hajdini, Ina & Kurmann, Andre, 2022.
"Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts,"
School of Economics Working Paper Series
2022-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
- Ina Hajdini & Andre Kurmann, 2024. "Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 24-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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"COVID risk narratives: a computational linguistic approach to the econometric identification of narrative risk during a pandemic,"
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"Time connectedness of fear,"
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"Economic determinants of regional trade agreements revisited using machine learning,"
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"Macroeconomic dynamics under bounded rationality: on the impact of consumers’ forecast heuristics,"
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 849-873, July.
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"Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence,"
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"Technology Network Structure Conditions the Economic Resilience of Regions,"
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"Superior Predictability of American Factors of the Won/Dollar Real Exchange Rate,"
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"On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism,"
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"The attachment of adult women to the Italian labour market in the shadow of COVID-19,"
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"When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume,"
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"Assessing and comparing fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice: Glide charts for feature-engineered linear regression and machine learning models,"
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"Assessing and comparing fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice: Glide charts for feature-engineered linear regression and machine learning models,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
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"Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning,"
Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
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"Forecasting Under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation,"
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"Technology Network Structure Conditions the Economic Resilience of Regions,"
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"Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections,"
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