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¿Akaike o Schwarz? ¿Cuál elegir para predecir el PIB chileno?
[Akaike or Schwarz? Which One is a Better Predictor of Chilean GDP?]

  • Medel, Carlos A.

Schwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the results indicate that —on average— the models based on the Schwarz criterion perform better than those selected with the Akaike, for the four horizons analyzed. Furthermore, the statistical significance of these differences indicates that the superiority in favor of the Schwarz criterion holds mainly at higher horizo

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35950.

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Date of creation: 14 Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35950
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  1. Todd E. Clark, 2000. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Research Working Paper RWP 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  2. Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May.
  3. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
  5. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "Information Criteria for Discriminating among Alternative Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1273-91, November.
  6. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  7. Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
  8. Poskitt, D.S., 1994. "A Note on Autoregressive Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 884-899, December.
  9. Melard, G. & Pasteels, J. -M., 2000. "Automatic ARIMA modeling including interventions, using time series expert software," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 497-508.
  10. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
  11. Carlos A. Medel, 2013. "How informative are in-sample information criteria to forecasting? The case of Chilean GDP," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(1), pages 133-161, May.
  12. Nickelsburg, Gerald, 1985. "Small-sample properties of dimensionality statistics for fitting VAR models to aggregate economic data : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 183-192, May.
  13. Nishii, R., 1988. "Maximum likelihood principle and model selection when the true model is unspecified," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 392-403, November.
  14. Yi, Gang & Judge, George, 1988. "Statistical model selection criteria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 47-51.
  15. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Guy Melard & Jean-Michel Pasteels, 2000. "Automatic ARIMA modeling including interventions, using time series expert software," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13744, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1980. "Selection of Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 331-54, June.
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  19. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Álvaro García Marín, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile With an Accurate Benchmark," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 514, Central Bank of Chile.
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