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Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data

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Listed author(s):
  • Golinelli, Roberto
  • Parigi, Giuseppe

Abstract

National accounts statistics undergo a process of revisions over time because of the accumulation of information and, less frequently, of deeper changes, as new definitions, new methodologies etc. are implemented. In this paper we try to characterise the revision process of the data of Italian GDP as published by the national statistical office (ISTAT) in the stream of the noise models literature. The analysis shows that this task can be better accomplished by concentrating on the growth rates of the data instead of the levels. Another issue tackled in the paper concerns the informative content of the preliminary releases vis a vis an intermediate vintage supposed to embody all statistical information (or no longer revisable as far as purely statistical changes are concerned) and the latest vintage of the data, supposed to be the definitive one. The analysis of the news models in differences is based on the comparison of the forecasting performance of the preliminary releases with that of a number of one step ahead forecasts computed from alternative models, ranging from very simple univariate to multivariate specifications based on indicators (bridge models). Results show that, for the intermediate vintage, the preliminary version is the better forecast, while the latest vintage, which embodies statistical as well as definitional revisions, may be better characterised by considering both the preliminary version and the bridge models forecasts.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5302.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5302
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Keywords: consistent vintages; predictions of 'actual' GDP; preliminary GDP forecasting; real-time data set for Italian GDP;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
  • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
  • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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Cited by:

  1. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
  2. Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua, 2012. "Short-term forecasting for the portuguese economy: a methodological overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
  4. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
  5. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  6. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  7. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2005. "The Role of Asset Prices in Euro Area Monetary Policy: Specification and Estimation of Policy Rules and Implications for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2005,6, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  8. Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
  9. Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L. & Pluyaud, B. & Rouvreau, B., 2008. "Monthly forecasting of French GDP: A revised version of the OPTIM model," Working papers 222, Banque de France.
  10. Jens Hogrefe, 2008. "Forecasting data revisions of GDP: a mixed frequency approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 271-296, August.

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