The limits of statistical information: How important are GDP revisions in Italy?
The use of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a summary measure of the level of economic activity is pervasive in empirical economics, policy analysis and forecasting. This pervasive role of GDP and its nature of "public good" raises obvious problems of timeliness and accuracy of the data. A striking feature of GDP data (and, more generally, of all national accounts figures) is the presence of "data vintages". That is, the GDP estimate for a specific year or quarter is subject to several revisions after its first release. As a result, both the level and the profile of GDP over a given period may change, sometimes substantially, through time. This paper presents some evidence on the extent of GDP revisions in Italy, with particular emphasis on revisions of the quarterly national accounts series, and compares the Italian evidence with the available evidence from other countries. After discussing some areas in which data revisions can have potentially important consequences, the paper concludes with some policy recommendations.
|Date of creation:||06 Jun 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via De Sanctis, 86100 Campobasso|
Web page: http://www.unimol.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Jong, Piet, 1987. "Rational Economic Data Revisions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 539-48, October.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Blanchard and Quah AER 1989," Statistical Software Components RTZ00017, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "BQDODRAWS: RATS procedure to implement Monte Carlo draws from a VAR with Blanchard-Quah factorization," Statistical Software Components RTS00030, Boston College Department of Economics.
- G. Cainelli & C. Lupi, 1998. "Aggregazione contemporanea e specificazione econometrica nella stima trimestrale dei conti economici nazionali," Working Papers 319, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Fabio Busetti, 2001. "The use of preliminary data in econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 437, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Cainelli, Giulio & Lupi, Claudio, 1999. "The Choice of the Aggregation Level in the Estimation of Quarterly National Accounts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(4), pages 483-92, December.
- Bordignon, Silvano & Trivellato, Ugo, 1989. "The Optimal Use of Provisional Data in Forecasting with Dynamic Model s," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 275-86, April.
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp03005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Lupi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.