IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets

Listed author(s):
  • Norman R. Swanson

    ()

    (Rutgers University)

  • Valentina Corradi

    ()

    (University of Warwick)

  • Andres Fernandez

    ()

    (Universidad de Los Andes)

Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests that have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows that the suggested tests have good finite sample properties. Additionally, we carry out an empirical illustration using a real-time dataset for money, output, and prices. Overall, we find evidence against data rationality for output and prices, but not for money

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sas.rutgers.edu/virtual/snde/wp/2011-07.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 201107.

as
in new window

Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 14 May 2011
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27, 455-467
Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201107
Contact details of provider: Postal:
New Jersey Hall - 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1248

Phone: (732) 932-7363
Fax: (732) 932-7416
Web page: http://economics.rutgers.edu/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Chao, John & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2001. "Out-Of-Sample Tests For Granger Causality," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 598-620, September.
  2. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
  3. de Jong, Robert M., 1996. "The Bierens test under data dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 1-32.
  4. Gon alves, S lvia & White, Halbert, 2002. "The Bootstrap Of The Mean For Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1367-1384, December.
  5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
  6. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
  7. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Kavajecz, Kenneth & Collins, Sean, 1995. "Rationality of Preliminary Money Stock Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 32-41, February.
  9. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1999. "Higher-Order Improvements of a Computationally Attractive-Step Bootstrap for Extremum Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1230, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Brodsky, Noel & Newbold, Paul, 1994. "Late forecasts and early revisions of United States GNP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 455-460, November.
  12. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
  14. Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8hx21540, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  15. Bierens, H.J. & Ploberger, W., 1995. "Asymptotic theory of integrated conditional moment tests," Discussion Paper 1995-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2007. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 67-109, 02.
  17. Mork, Knut Anton, 1987. "Ain't Behavin': Forecast Errors and Measurement Errors in Early GNP Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 165-175, April.
  18. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
  19. Rathjens, Peter & Robins, Russell P, 1995. "Do Government Agencies Use Public Data?: The Case of GNP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 170-172, February.
  20. Swanson, N.R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  22. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
  23. Bierens, Herman J, 1990. "A Consistent Conditional Moment Test of Functional Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1443-1458, November.
  24. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
  25. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & White, Halbert, 1998. "Consistent Specification Testing With Nuisance Parameters Present Only Under The Alternative," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 295-325, June.
  27. Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 26-33.
  28. Bruce E. Hansen, 1994. "Stochastic Equicontinuity for Unbounded Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 295., Boston College Department of Economics.
  29. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
  31. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predictive Density Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200419, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  32. Corradi, Valentina & Iglesias, Emma M., 2008. "Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 500-510, June.
  33. Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society.
  34. Bierens, Herman J., 1982. "Consistent model specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 105-134, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.