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Information in the Revision Process of Real-Time Datasets

  • Norman R. Swanson

    ()

    (Rutgers University)

  • Valentina Corradi

    ()

    (University of Warwick)

  • Andres Fernandez

    ()

    (Universidad de Los Andes)

Rationality of early release data is typically tested using linear regressions. Thus, failure to reject the null does not rule out the possibility of nonlinear dependence. This paper proposes two tests that have power against generic nonlinear alternatives. A Monte Carlo study shows that the suggested tests have good finite sample properties. Additionally, we carry out an empirical illustration using a real-time dataset for money, output, and prices. Overall, we find evidence against data rationality for output and prices, but not for money

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Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 201107.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 14 May 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27, 455-467
Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201107
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  1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Stochastic Equicontinuity for Unbounded Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 347-359, June.
  2. Bierens, Herman J., 1982. "Consistent model specification tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 105-134, October.
  3. Bierens, H.J. & Ploberger, W., 1995. "Asymptotic theory of integrated conditional moment tests," Discussion Paper 1995-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Rathjens, Peter & Robins, Russell P, 1995. "Do Government Agencies Use Public Data?: The Case of GNP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 170-72, February.
  5. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
  6. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2002. "Higher-Order Improvements of a Computationally Attractive "k"-Step Bootstrap for Extremum Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 119-162, January.
  8. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2000. "Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1bj657ff, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  10. Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000. "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy," Discussion Papers 0012, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Bierens, Herman J, 1990. "A Consistent Conditional Moment Test of Functional Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1443-58, November.
  13. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
  14. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive Density Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  16. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  17. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  18. Mork, Knut Anton, 1987. "Ain't Behavin': Forecast Errors and Measurement Errors in Early GNP Estimates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(2), pages 165-75, April.
  19. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
  20. Swanson, N.R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Are statistical reporting agencies getting it right? Data rationality and business cycle asymmetry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  21. Sílvia Gonçalves & Halbert White, 2001. "The Bootstrap of the Mean for Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-19, CIRANO.
  22. Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society.
  23. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
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  25. Brodsky, Noel & Newbold, Paul, 1994. "Late forecasts and early revisions of United States GNP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 455-460, November.
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  27. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  30. repec:oup:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:4:p:1107-1125 is not listed on IDEAS
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  32. Corradi, Valentina & Iglesias, Emma M., 2008. "Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 500-510, June.
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  34. Kavajecz, Kenneth & Collins, Sean, 1995. "Rationality of Preliminary Money Stock Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 32-41, February.
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