Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
References listed on IDEAS
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005.
"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003.
"The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
- Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 0004, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 2001-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 684, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
- West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Working papers 9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Todd Clark & Michael McCracken, 2005. "Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 369-404.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Forecasting inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005.
"Testing Long-Horizon Predictive Ability With High Persistence, And The Meese-Rogoff Puzzle,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 61-92, February.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Testing Long-horizon Predictive Ability with High Persistence, and the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle," Working Papers 02-10, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009.
"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998.
"Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-840, November.
- West, K.D. & McCracken, M.W., 1997. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," Working papers 9710, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 961-982, Elsevier.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005.
"News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009.
"Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(2), pages 669-705.
- Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 638, European Central Bank.
- Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2006. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," Working Papers 06-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Chao, John & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2001.
"Out-Of-Sample Tests For Granger Causality,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 598-620, September.
- Norman R. Swanson, 2000. "An Out of Sample Test for Granger Causality," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0362, Econometric Society.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002.
"A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
- Corradi, V. & Swanson, N.R., 2000. "A Consistent Test for Nonlinear Out of Sample Predictive Accuracy," Discussion Papers 0012, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
- Swanson Norman, 1996.
"Forecasting Using First-Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time-Series Data,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
- Swanson, N.R., 1996. "Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series data," Papers 4-96-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 4), pages 4-20.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003.
"A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
- S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008.
"Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
- S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, March.
- Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R. & Olivetti, Claudia, 2001. "Predictive ability with cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 315-358, September.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006.
"The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001.
"Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
- Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002.
"Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
- Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Testing for unconditional predictive ability," Working Papers 2010-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2006.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation,"
Economic Research Papers
269743, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014.
"A predictability test for a small number of nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004.
"Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
- Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009.
"Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 480-491.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun P Vahey, 2007. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0714, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015.
"Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Research Working Paper RWP 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Calhoun, Gray, 2014. "Out-Of-Sample Comparisons of Overfit Models," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32462, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018.
"Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Predictive ability tests with possibly overlapping models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(1).
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012.
"Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jin, Sainan & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2017.
"Robust Forecast Comparison,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1306-1351, December.
- Sainan Jin & Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2015. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Departmental Working Papers 201502, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013.
"Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
- Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001.
"Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
More about this item
Keywords
Economic forecasting; Real-time data;NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-FOR-2008-09-05 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.