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Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability

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  • West, Kenneth D
  • McCracken, Michael W

Abstract

The authors develop regression-based tests of hypotheses about out of sample prediction errors. Representative tests include ones for zero mean and zero correlation between a prediction error and a vector of predictors. The relevant environments are ones in which predictions depend on estimated parameters. The authors show that standard regression statistics generally fail to account for errors introduced by estimation of these parameters. They propose computationally convenient test statistics that properly account for such errors. Simulations indicate that the procedures can work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are substantial size distortions. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-840, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:4:p:817-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters,in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1984. "Model Specification Tests Based on Artificial Linear Regressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 485-502, June.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    5. Todd E. Clark, 1996. "Finite-sample properties of tests for forecast equivalence," Research Working Paper 96-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
    7. Hoffman, Dennis L & Pagan, Adrian R, 1989. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 333-343, August.
    8. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
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    11. Berger, Allen N & Krane, Spencer D, 1985. "The Information Efficiency of Econometric Model Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 128-134, February.
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    18. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-383, June.
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    23. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:1:p:17-43 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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