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Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability

  • West, K.D.
  • McCracken, M.W.

We develop regression-based tests of hypotheses about out of sample prediction errors. Representative tests include ones for zero mean and zero correlation between a prediction error and a vector of predictors. The relevant environments are ones in which predictions depend on estimated parameters. We show that standard regression statistics generally fail to account for error introduced by estimation of these parameters. We propose computationally convenient test statistics that properly account for such error. Simulations indicate that the procedures can work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are substantial size distortions.

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File URL: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/econ/archive/wp9710.pdf
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Paper provided by Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems in its series Working papers with number 9710.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:att:wimass:9710
Contact details of provider: Postal:
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON, SOCIAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE(S.S.R.I.), MADISON WISCONSIN 53706 U.S.A.

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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Working papers 9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  5. Hoffman, D. & Pagan, A., 1988. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests For Generalized Method Of Moment Estimators," RCER Working Papers 129, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1984. "Model Specification Tests Based on Artificial Linear Regressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 485-502, June.
  8. West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  9. Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
  11. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  13. West, K.D. & Wilcox, D.W., 1994. "A Comparison of Alternative Instrumental Variables Estimators of Dynamic Linear Model," Working papers 9414, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  14. Allen N. Berger & Spencer D. Krane, 1983. "The informational efficiency of econometric model forecasts," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "A Comparison of Alternative Instruments Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  18. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:1:p:17-43 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Todd E. Clark, 1996. "Finite-sample properties of tests for forecast equivalence," Research Working Paper 96-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  22. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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