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Comparing Predictive Accuracy

  • Diebold, Francis X
  • Mariano, Roberto S

We propose and evaluate explicit tests of the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing forecasts. In contrast to previously developed tests, a wide variety of accuracy measures can be used (in particular, the loss function need not be quadratic and need not even be symmetric), and forecast errors can be non-Gaussian, nonzero mean, serially correlated, and contemporaneously correlated. Asymptotic and exact finite-sample tests are proposed, evaluated, and illustrated.

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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 134-44

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:20:y:2002:i:1:p:134-44
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