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A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility

  • Kenneth D. West
  • Hali J. Edison
  • Dongchul Cho

When estimates of variances are used to make asset allocation decisions, underestimates of population variances lead to lower expected utility than equivalent overestimates: a utility based criterion is asymmetric, unlike standard criteria such as mean squared error. To illustrate how to estimate a utility based criterion, we use five bilateral weekly dollar exchange rates, 1973-1989, and the corresponding pair of Eurodeposit rates. Of homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonpararnetric models for the conditional variance of each exchange rate, GARCI-J models tend to produce the highest utility, on average. A mean squared error criterion also favors GARCH, but not as sharply.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0128.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0128.

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Date of creation: Nov 1992
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Publication status: published as Journal of International Economics 1993, vol. 35, no.1, pp. 23-46
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0128
Note: IFM AP
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