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Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability

  • Mark, Nelson C

Regressions of multiple-period changes in the log exchange rate on the deviation of the log exchange rate from its 'fundamental value' display evidence that long-horizon changes in log nominal exchange rates contain an economically significant predictable component. To account for small-sample bias and size distortion in asymptotic tests, inference is drawn from bootstrap distributions generated under the null hypothesis that the log exchange rate is unpredictable. The bias-adjusted slope coefficients and R[superscript]2's increase with the forecast horizon, and the out-of-sample point predictions generally outperform the driftless random walk at the longer horizons. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 85 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 201-18

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:85:y:1995:i:1:p:201-18
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