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Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices

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  • James H. Stock
  • Mark W.Watson

Abstract

Are asset prices useful predictors of inflation and real output growth? After reviewing the large literature on this topic, we undertake an empirical analysis of quarterly data for seven OECD countries spanning 1959-99. The literature review and the empirical analysis yield the same conclusions. Some asset prices predict inflation or output growth in some countries in some periods. Which series predicts what, when, and where is difficult to predict; being a good predictor historically is largely unrelated to subsequent performance. Intriguingly, forecasts that combine these individually unstable forecasts appear to improve reliably upon univariate benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:41:y:2003:i:3:p:788-829
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/002205103322436197
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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