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La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?

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  • Sedillot, F.

Abstract

Les auteurs etudient dans ce papier le lien entre pente des taux et croissance en Allemagne, aux Etats-Unis et en France. Cette relation est analysee selon deux approches. La premiere, communement mise en oeuvre, consiste a regresser le taux de croissance du PIB pour differents horizons sur le "spread" de taux. Dans la seconde, plus rarement appliquee sur donnees europeennes, c'est l'occurence d'une recession que l'on cherche a prevoir. Dans ce cas, il faut recourir a l'estimation d'un modele probit. Pour chacun des termes de cette alternative, une analyse des proprietes prédictives en echantillon et hors echantillon est menee. La stabilite des differentes relations, apprehendee au travers des erreurs de prevision recursives et glissantes, est aussi abordee.

Suggested Citation

  • Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:67
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale et l'Union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 211-244.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt ; Contenu en information ; Activité économique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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