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Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles

Listed author(s):
  • Ivanova, Detelina
  • Lahiri, Kajal
  • Seitz, Franz

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(99)00029-1
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 16 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 39-58

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:16:y:2000:i:1:p:39-58
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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  3. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March.
  4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  8. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Artis, Michael J & Kontolemis, Zenon G & Osborn, Denise R, 1997. "Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(2), pages 249-279, April.
  11. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  12. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
  13. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  14. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
  15. Artis, M J, et al, 1995. "Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1145-1164, September.
  16. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1999. "Money growth targeting by the Bundesbank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 681-701, June.
  17. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, April.
  20. Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "The Information Content of the Term Structure: Evidence for Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
  22. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  23. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Working Papers 3879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  25. Eswar S Prasad & Bankim Chadha, 1994. "Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7," IMF Working Papers 94/91, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Frank Smets, 1997. "Why does the yield curve predict economic activity? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States," BIS Working Papers 49, Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Ralf Ahrens, 1999. "Examining Predictors of U.S. Recessions: A Regime-Switching Approach," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 135(I), pages 97-124, March.
  29. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  30. Davis, E Philip & Fagan, Gabriel, 1997. "Are Financial Spreads Useful Indicators of Future Inflation and Output Growth in EU Countries?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 701-714, Nov.-Dec..
  31. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119, January.
  32. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
  33. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1994. "Indicator properties of the paper-bill spread: lessons from recent experience," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  34. Schich, Sebastian T., 1997. "Estimating the German term structure," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,04e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  35. Michael J. Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
  36. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  37. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  38. Schich, Sebastian T., 1996. "Alternative specifications of the German term structure and its information content regarding inflation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,08e, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  39. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
  40. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
  41. Layton, Allan P., 1996. "Dating and predicting phase changes in the U.S. business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 417-428, September.
  42. Klein, Philip A., 1986. "Leading indicators of inflation in market economies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 403-412.
  43. Serletis, Apostolos, 1996. "International evidence on the cyclical behavior of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 205-212, May.
  44. Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, interest rate spreads, and economic activity," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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