IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?

  • Fabio Moneta
Registered author(s):

    This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area and provides evidence of the potential usefulness of this indicator for monetary policy purposes. In particular, the historical predictive power of ten variations of yield spreads, for different segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the ten-year government bond rate and the three-month interbank rate outperforms all other spreads in predicting recessions in the euro area. The forecast accuracy of the spread between ten-year and three-month interest rates is also explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain information beyond that already available in the history of output, and to outperform other competitor indicators. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2005

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=infi&volume=8&issue=2&year=2005&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 (08)
    Pages: 263-301

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:8:y:2005:i:2:p:263-301
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1367-0271

    Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1367-0271

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:8:y:2005:i:2:p:263-301. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

    or (Christopher F. Baum)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.