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Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hasse, Jean-Baptiste

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/LFIN, Belgium)

  • Lajaunie, Quentin

Abstract

In this paper, we reexamine the predictive power of the yield spread across countries and over time. Using a dynamic panel/dichotomous model framework and a unique dataset covering 13 OECD countries over the period 1975–2019, we empirically show that the yield spread signals recessions. This result is robust to different econometric specifications, controlling for recession risk factors and time sampling. Using a new cluster analysis methodology, we present empirical evidence of a partial homogeneity of the predictive power of the yield spread. Our results provide a valuable framework for monitoring economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ajf:louvlr:2022004
    Note: In: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2022, vol. 84, p. 9-22
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    2. Candelon, Bertrand & Hasse, Jean-Baptiste, 2023. "Testing for causality between climate policies and carbon emissions reduction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    3. Christos Argyropoulos & Bertrand Candelon & Jean‐Baptiste Hasse & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2024. "Towards a macroprudential regulatory framework for mutual funds?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3063-3082, July.
    4. Filip Bašić & Tomislav Globan, 2023. "Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 2120040-212, December.
    5. Laleh Tafakori & Armin Pourkhanali & Riccardo Rastelli, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 345-389, July.
    6. Prateek Sharma, 2024. "Loan loss provisions and the deposit rates yield curve at US banks," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(8), pages 1-24, August.
    7. Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2024. "The shape of the Treasury yield curve and commodity prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Jean-Baptiste Hasse & Christelle Lecourt & Souhila Siagh, 2023. "Institutional Stock-Bond Portfolios Rebalancing and Financial Stability," AMSE Working Papers 2322, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. Jean-Baptiste Hasse, 2020. "Systemic Risk: a Network Approach," Working Papers halshs-02893780, HAL.
    10. Rademacher, Philip, 2024. "Forecasting recessions in Germany with machine learning," DICE Discussion Papers 416, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    11. Libo Xu, 2025. "Economic downturn and the yield curve: Evidence from Canada and the US," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 49(2), pages 536-567, June.
    12. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lecourt, Christelle & Siagh, Souhila, 2024. "Setting up a sovereign wealth fund to reduce currency crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Yasmeen Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2024. "Interest rate uncertainty and the shape of the yield curve of U.S. treasury bonds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 981-1003, December.
    14. David G. McMillan, 2023. "Do financial markets predict macroeconomic performance? US evidence from risk‐based measures," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(5), pages 439-466, September.
    15. Pan Tang & Yuwei Zhang, 2024. "China's business cycle forecasting: a machine learning approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2783-2811, November.
    16. Jean-Baptiste Hasse, 2022. "Systemic risk: a network approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 313-344, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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