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Predicting output using the entire yield curve

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  • Abdymomunov, Azamat

Abstract

Many papers find that the term spread of the term structure of government bond yields can predict future output growth. This paper extends that literature by exploiting information in the entire term structure of interest rates. I apply a dynamic version of the Nelson–Siegel yield curve model to jointly model real GDP growth and yield factors. I find that the dynamic yield curve model produces better out-of-sample forecasts of real GDP than those generated by the traditional term spread model. The main source of this improvement is in the dynamic approach to constructing forecasts versus the direct forecasting approach used in the term spread model. While I confirm the importance of the term spread as a predictor of future output, there is also a gain from using information in the curvature factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:333-344
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.05.002
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; Term spread; Nelson–Seigel model; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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