The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions
The yield curve--specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill--is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
Volume (Year): 2 (1996)
Issue (Month): Jun ()
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995.
"The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank,"
9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for The European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 5279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988.
"What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?,"
NBER Working Papers
2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
- Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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