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Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : application au cas des titres publics français

  • Jondeau, E.
  • Ricart, R.

This paper evaluates the information content of the term structure about future changes in interest rates and changes in inflation rate, in France. A data set has been constructed, which contains zero-coupon yield curves on government bonds over the period 1980-95. The information content is generally very weak over the whole period. On the contrary, over the period 1985-95, the term structure contains information for certain maturities. On the one hand, spreads vis-à-vis 2-year rates are informative for future changes in short-term rates, whereas spreads vis-à-vis 3-year rates are informative for both future changes in short-term rates and future changes in long-term rates; on the second hand, the spreads from (2- versus 1-year rates) to (5- versus 1-year rates) and (4- versus 2-year rates) are the most informative for future changes in inflation rate.

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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 43.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:43
Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/

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  1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  2. Stefan Gerlach, 1995. "The information content of the term structure: evidence for Germany," BIS Working Papers 29, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Interpreting Cointegrated Models," NBER Working Papers 2568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  7. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," BIS Working Papers 28, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
  10. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1713, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
  14. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
  15. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
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