The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for The European Central Bank
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Note: ME
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
References listed on IDEAS
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986.
"Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
- John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the United Kingdom and Germany," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 517-525, September.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990.
"What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Robert D. Laurent, 1989. "Testing the "spread"," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 13(Jul), pages 22-34.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998.
"Measuring Monetary Policy,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991.
"A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
- Philippe Jorion & Frederic Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons," NBER Working Papers 3574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
"The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990.
"The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Bruce Kasman, 1992. "A comparison of monetary policy operating procedures in six industrial countries," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(Sum), pages 5-24.
- McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
- Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993.
"A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience,"
NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 12(Jan), pages 3-14.
- F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997.
"Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
- Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Interest Rates, Banking Spreads and Credit Supply: The Real Effects," Working Papers 1995-01, CEPII research center.
- Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Using econometric models to predict recessions," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 15(Nov), pages 14-25.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998.
"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003.
"How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
- Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006.
"What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerlach, Stefan, 2003.
"Interpreting the term structure of interbank rates in Hong Kong,"
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 593-609, November.
- Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interbank Rates in Hong Kong," Working Papers 142001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interbank Rates in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 3187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
- Modena, Matteo, 2008.
"The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model,"
MPRA Paper
9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Hibiki Ichiue, 2004.
"Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with an Affine Term Structure Model,"
Bank of Japan Working Paper Series
04-E-11, Bank of Japan.
- Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
- Jardet, Caroline, 2004.
"Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-524, May.
- Caroline Jardet, 2002. "Why did the Term Structure of Interest Rates Lose its Predictive Power ?," Working Papers 2002-05, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
- Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
- Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Langfeldt, Enno, 1994. "Die Zinsstruktur als Frühindikator für Konjunktur und Preisentwicklung in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 615, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
- Arnaud Mehl, 2009.
"The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies,"
Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 691, European Central Bank.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
- Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
More about this item
JEL classification:
- E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.