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A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance

Author

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  • James H. Stock
  • Mark W. Watson

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhma:92-7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    2. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2003. "US composite economic indicator with nonlinear dynamics and the data subject to structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 363-372.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    4. Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Baynesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions," Macroeconomics 9610002, EconWPA.
    5. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    6. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
    7. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
    8. Jean-François Loué, 1996. "L'influence de la politique monétaire sur les taux d'intérêt," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 59(1), pages 101-133.
    9. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2012. "Is East Asia an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 87-95.
    10. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "Introduction to "The Internationalization of Equity Markets "," NBER Chapters,in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 1-20 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. J. M. Binner & A. Fielding & A. W. Mullineux, 1999. "Divisia money in a composite leading indicator of inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-1031.
    14. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Chapters,in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 23-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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