Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead
"This paper assesses the real-time performance of the Commerce Department's composite index of leading indicators. The authors find that the composite leading index has failed to provide reliable advance warning of cyclical turning points. One reason for this failure is that the leading index's transition from expansion to contraction generally is not very sharp. Consequently, discerning real-time cyclical peaks in the index is difficult. Transitions from contraction to expansion on average are sharp. However, cyclical troughs in the leading index often precede cyclical troughs in the economy by only a few months. Thus, even timely recognition of troughs in the leading index fails to provide advance warning of turnarounds in the general level of economic activity". Copyright 1994 Western Economic Association International.
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Volume (Year): 12 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992.
"Forecasting turning points : Is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?,"
Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 431-435, August.
- Emery, Kenneth M. & Koenig, Evan F., 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Working Papers 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Saul H. Hymans, 1973. "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 339-384.
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