IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedder/y1996iqii.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Lucinda Vargas
  • Victor Zarnowitz

    (National Bureau of Economic Research
    Conference Board
    University of Chicago
    ebrary Inc)

  • Keith R. Phillips

Abstract

New composite indexes presented in this article could prove useful in analyzing and forecasting the Mexican economy. Keith Phillips, Lucinda Vargas, and Victor Zarnowitz present composite indexes of leading and coincident indexes for Mexico. In constructing the indexes, the economists use an approach similar to that developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research to create the composite indexes of U.S. economic activity. The authors classify peaks and troughs in the Mexican business cycle since 1980. Using these business cycle turning points, the authors determine which indicators consistently turned down prior to recessions and turned up prior to expansions. Eight of the best performing indicators are combined to create a composite index of leading economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucinda Vargas & Victor Zarnowitz & Keith R. Phillips, 1996. "New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qii
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1996/er9602a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
    2. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    3. Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1985. "Monitoring Growth Cycles in Market-Oriented Countries: Developing and Using International Economic Indicators," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number klei85-1.
    4. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, March.
    5. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    6. Koch, Paul D & Rasche, Robert H, 1988. "An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-Indicator Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 167-187, April.
    7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fujii, Eiji, 2000. "Which Measure of Aggregate Output Should We Use?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-269, April.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle," Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic indicators; Texas;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qii. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.