IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedder/y1996iqii.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Keith R. Phillips
  • Lucinda Vargas
  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

New composite indexes presented in this article could prove useful in analyzing and forecasting the Mexican economy. Keith Phillips, Lucinda Vargas, and Victor Zarnowitz present composite indexes of leading and coincident indexes for Mexico. In constructing the indexes, the economists use an approach similar to that developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research to create the composite indexes of U.S. economic activity. The authors classify peaks and troughs in the Mexican business cycle since 1980. Using these business cycle turning points, the authors determine which indicators consistently turned down prior to recessions and turned up prior to expansions. Eight of the best performing indicators are combined to create a composite index of leading economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith R. Phillips & Lucinda Vargas & Victor Zarnowitz, 1996. "New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qii
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/er/1996/er9602a.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, July.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, July.
    4. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    5. Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1985. "Monitoring Growth Cycles in Market-Oriented Countries: Developing and Using International Economic Indicators," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number klei85-1, July.
    6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226978901 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Auerbach, Alan J, 1982. "The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 589-595, November.
    9. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    10. Koch, Paul D & Rasche, Robert H, 1988. "An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-Indicator Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 167-187, April.
    11. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle," Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fujii, Eiji, 2000. "Which Measure of Aggregate Output Should We Use?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-269, April.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    3. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
    5. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88, September.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    7. Maria Rita Ippoliti & Luigi Martone & Fabiana Sartor & Graziella Spera, 2023. "Surveys on trade sector: a comparison between qualitative and quantitative indicators," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 77(1), pages 4-12, January-M.
    8. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
    9. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "Business Cycle Properties of Selected U.S. Economic Time Series, 1959-1988," Working Papers 1990-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    12. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    13. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    14. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2007. "Predicting Indian Business Cycles," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(3), pages 249-265, July.
    15. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 8328, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2007. "Datierung von Konjunkturwendepunkten in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 80(9), pages 715-730, September.
    18. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010. "Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
    20. Soh, Ann-Ni, 2020. "A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 103854, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Texas; Economic indicators;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qii. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.