New tools for analyzing the Mexican economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators
New composite indexes presented in this article could prove useful in analyzing and forecasting the Mexican economy. Keith Phillips, Lucinda Vargas, and Victor Zarnowitz present composite indexes of leading and coincident indexes for Mexico. In constructing the indexes, the economists use an approach similar to that developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research to create the composite indexes of U.S. economic activity. The authors classify peaks and troughs in the Mexican business cycle since 1980. Using these business cycle turning points, the authors determine which indicators consistently turned down prior to recessions and turned up prior to expansions. Eight of the best performing indicators are combined to create a composite index of leading economic indicators.
Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
- Philip A. Klein & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1985. "Monitoring Growth Cycles in Market-Oriented Countries: Developing and Using International Economic Indicators," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number klei85-1, June.
- Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994.
"Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead,"
Contemporary Economic Policy,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, 01.
- Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1993. "Why the composite index of leading indicators doesn't lead," Research Paper 9318, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Koch, Paul D & Rasche, Robert H, 1988. "An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-Indicator Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 167-87, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1996:i:qii. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Delia Rodriguez)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Delia Rodriguez to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.