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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010

  • Viviana Alejandra Alfonso


  • Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas


  • Fernando Arias


  • José David Pulido


Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, fechas de picos y valles que se alternan en la actividad económica determinadas sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cinco ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1980 y 2010 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 5,1 años. Las expansiones duran en promedio 4,1 años mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,1 años. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 24 series.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 008328.

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Length: 57
Date of creation: 17 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:008328
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  1. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003549, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Herman Kamil & Jose David Pulido & Jose Luis Torres, . "El "IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 609, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  4. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
  5. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Mauricio Castillo, 1999. "¿Son Estilizadas Las Regularidades Del Ciclo Económico?Una Breve Revisión De La Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003835, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Frederick C. Mills, 1936. "Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill36-1, December.
  8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2008. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, June.
  9. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
  10. Arthur F. Burns, 1961. "New Facts on Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 13-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002465, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  14. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  15. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, December.
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