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Output gap and Neutral interest measures for Colombia

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  • Andrés González

    ()

  • Sergio Ocampo

    ()

  • Julián Pérez

    ()

  • Diego Rodríguez

    ()

Abstract

In this paper two new measures of the Colombian output gap and the real neutral interest rate are proposed. Instead of relying only on statistical filters, the proposed measures use semi-structural New-Keynesian models, adapted for a small open economy. The output gap measures presented are in line with previous works for Colombia and capture all the turning points of the Colombian business cycle, as measured by Alfonso et al. (2011). They are also strongly correlated with inflation and precede its movements along the sample. The neutral interest rate computed indicates that the monetary policy stance has been overall countercyclical, but has failed to anticipate the output gap´s movements, or at least react strongly enough to them.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 009870.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 02 Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009870
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Keywords: Output Gap; New-keynesian model; Neutral interest rate.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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  7. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, . "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 651, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  18. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
  19. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2009. "The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 297-319, May.
  20. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:

  1. Nicolas E. Magud & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/243, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González & Enrique López & Norberto Rodíguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 728, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Paulo Mauricio Sánchez Beltrán & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2013. "Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano," Borradores de Economia 775, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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