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Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg

Author

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  • Ladislav Wintr
  • Paolo Guarda
  • Abdelaziz Rouabah

Abstract

This paper estimates the natural real interest rate that is consistent with stable inflation and output at its potential for the euro area and Luxembourg. The natural interest rate provides a benchmark for assessing the monetary policy stance, as policy is contractionary when real interest rates rise above the natural rate and expansionary when real interest rates fall below this level. We follow Laubach and Williams (2003) in using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model to estimate the time-varying natural interest rate as an unobservable variable. For the euro area, our results suggest the natural interest rate has been fairly stable since 1970 and confirm its decline over the last decade. For Luxembourg, our estimate of the natural interest rate is much higher, reflecting higher potential growth. The results suggest that the single monetary policy may have had an expansionary impact in recent years, especially in Luxembourg.

Suggested Citation

  • Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp015
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    File URL: https://www.bcl.lu/fr/Recherche/publications/cahiers_etudes/15/BCLWP015.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    2. Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso & Max Riedel, 2019. "A Quasi Real‐Time Leading Indicator for the EU Industrial Production," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(4), pages 510-542, July.
    3. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, June.
    4. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007.
    5. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    6. Fethi Oğunc & Inci Batmaz, 2009. "Estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 683-693.
    7. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3088, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Roman Horv??th, 2006. "Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp848, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty?: The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 972, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. repec:zbw:rwirep:0166 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filter; natural interest rate equilibrium; real interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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