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A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU

Author

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  • Silvia Fabiani
  • Ricardo Mestre

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of the obtained estimates. The empirical framework adopted is based on systems combining an Okun-type relationship between cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips curve and stochastic laws of motion for the NAIRU and potential output. Such systems have been estimated using Kalman-filter techniques. The results obtained point to an estimate of the area-wide NAIRU that is robust to changes in the underlying models. This robustness is shown to hold both in terms of the mean – i.e., the shape of the resulting NAIRU – and the variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The evidence found suggests that the increase in the aggregate NAIRU that took place in the early part of the sample period has come to a halt and may be about to be reversed. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Fabiani & Ricardo Mestre, 2004. "A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 311-341, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:29:y:2004:i:2:p:311-341
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-003-0170-8
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    Keywords

    Bootstrap; Kalman filter; NAIRU; unobserved components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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