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La Tasa De Interés Natural En Colombia

  • JUAN JOSÉ ECHAVARRÍA SOTO

    ()

  • ENRIQUE LÓPEZ ENCISO

    ()

  • MARTHA MISAS ARANGO

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  • JUANA TÉLLEZ CORREDOR- JUAN CARLOS PARRA ÁLVAREZ

    ()

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de “mediano plazo” como una variable no observada que cambia en el tiempo. Dicho ejercicio se realiza mediante un fi ltro de Kalman que estima simultáneamente la TIN y la brecha del producto para la economía colombiana. Los resultados sugie-ren que la política monetaria fue contraccionista en 1998 y 1999, y relativamente expansiva en años re-cientes, aún cuando los resultados no son tan claros al trabajar con los promedios móviles de la TIN. La brecha del producto ha sido positiva en 2003 y 2004, confi rmando los resultados de otros trabajos en el área.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004640
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