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La Tasa De Interés Natural En Colombia

Author

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  • JUAN JOSÉ ECHAVARRÍA SOTO

    ()

  • ENRIQUE LÓPEZ ENCISO

    ()

  • MARTHA MISAS ARANGO

    ()

  • JUANA TÉLLEZ CORREDOR- JUAN CARLOS PARRA ÁLVAREZ

    ()

Abstract

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de “mediano plazo” como una variable no observada que cambia en el tiempo. Dicho ejercicio se realiza mediante un fi ltro de Kalman que estima simultáneamente la TIN y la brecha del producto para la economía colombiana. Los resultados sugie-ren que la política monetaria fue contraccionista en 1998 y 1999, y relativamente expansiva en años re-cientes, aún cuando los resultados no son tan claros al trabajar con los promedios móviles de la TIN. La brecha del producto ha sido positiva en 2003 y 2004, confi rmando los resultados de otros trabajos en el área.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor- Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La Tasa De Interés Natural En Colombia," Revista ESPE - ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 25(54), pages 44-89, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004640
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    Cited by:

    1. Remberto Rhenals & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga, 2008. "An Optimal Taylor Rule for Colombia, 1991-2006," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 69, pages 9-39, Julio-Dic.
    2. Ana María Iregui B. & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," Borradores de Economia 547, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 1998. "Reglas Monetarias En Una Economía Pequeña Y Abierta," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 17(33), pages 61-84, July.
    4. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Luis E. Rojas & Brayan Rojas, 2011. "Estimations of the Natural Rate of Interest in Colombia," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 33-75, January-J.
    5. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    6. Rafael Cavalcanti De Araújo & Cleomar Gomes Da Silva, 2014. "The Neutral Interest Rate And The Stance Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 051, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Christian Bustamante & Luis E. Rojas, 2012. "Constant-Interest-Rate Projections and Its Indicator Properties," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009383, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Rhenals M., Remberto & Saldarriaga, Juan Pablo, 2008. "Una regla de Taylor óptima para Colombia, 1991-2006," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, November.
    9. J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2008. "La tasa de interés real neutral: definiciones y videncia para economías latinoamericanas," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 135-144 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tasa de interés natural (TIN); vari-ables no observadas; producto potencial; fi ltro de Kalman.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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