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La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia

  • Juan José Echavarría Soto

    ()

  • Enrique López Enciso

    ()

  • Martha Misas Arango

    ()

  • Juana Téllez Corredor

    ()

  • Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez

    ()

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de “mediano plazo” como una variable no observada que cambia en el tiempo. Tal estimación se realiza mediante un filtro de Kalman que estima simultáneamente la TIN y la brecha del producto para la economía colombiana. Se sugiere que la política monetaria fue contraccionista en 1998 y 1999, y relativamente expansiva en los años recientes, aún cuando los resultados no son tan claros cuando se trabaja con los promedios móviles de la TIN. La brecha del producto ha sido positiva en 2003 y 2004, confirmando los resultados de otros trabajos en el área.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 412.

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