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¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?

  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada P

    ()

  • Diego Mauricio Vásquez E

    ()

La corriente tradicional de investigación conocida como la teoríacuantitativa del dinero" ha sostenido que la cantidad de éste es elprincipal factor determinante del nivel de precios. Pero no siempre hahabido un consenso al respecto. Por ejemplo, hay quienes interpretanla ejecución de la estrategia denominada "inflación objetivo" comosíntoma de una supuesta irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero para ladeterminación del nivel de precios o de su tasa de aumento, la inflación.El objetivo del presente trabajo es someter a prueba la hipótesiscuantitativa para el caso colombiano pero en el siguiente sentidoespecífico: lo que determina el nivel de precios es el juicio de los agenteseconómicos sobre la magnitud y la evolución de los componentes permanentes del dinero nominal y del producto real, entendidos éstos como los valores actuales esperados de sustrayectorias futuras, y que los factores juzgados como transitorios carecen de importanciapara la determinación de dicho nivel.La verificación de tal hipótesis se realiza mediante un procedimiento de optimización nolineal, que considera la aplicación del filtro de Kalman y la estimación por máximaverosimilitud de los parámetros de una representación estado-espacio. Dicharepresentación se deriva de un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio generalintertemporal con expectativas racionales. Este trabajo se lleva a cabo con datos anualespara el período 1954-2000."

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 43 (June)
Pages: 8-31

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005295
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  1. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest Rates and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 219-225, May.
  2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 2001. "Indeterminacy, bubbles, and the fiscal theory of price level determination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 19-30, February.
  4. Juan Manuel Julio R. & Javier Gómez P., 1998. "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 89-117, Diciembre.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Martha Misas A. & Hugo Oliveros & José Dario Uribe, . "Especificación y Estabilidad de la Demanda por Dinero en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 011, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Söderlind, Paul, 2001. "What if the Fed Had Been an Inflation Nutter?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0443, Stockholm School of Economics.
  9. Luis Fernando Melo V & Fabio Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Bentancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente Para La Actividad Económico De Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 19(40), pages 46-88, December.
  10. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  11. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
  12. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, June.
  13. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus Siegfried, 2004. "Controlling inflation in Euroland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 549-558.
  14. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, June.
  15. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, . "About a Coincidente Index for the State of the Economy," Borradores de Economia 194, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  16. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, . "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  17. Allan H. Meltzer, 2001. "Money and monetary policy: an essay in honor of Darryl Francis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-32.
  18. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
  19. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
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