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Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case

  • Ignacio Lozano

    ()

Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with quarterly data over the last 25 years, the study found a close relationship between inflation and money growth on the one hand, and between money growth and fiscal deficit, on the other. The size of the long-term parameters looks acceptable, particularly when compared to what is seen in other countries, using analogous or different techniques. The conclusion, supported by several statistical tests, is that the Sargent and Wallace hypothesis would be the most appropriate approach to understanding the dynamics of these variables.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 537.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:537
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  1. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
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  9. Luis Ignacio Lozano E., 2001. "COLOMBIA'S PUBLIC FINANCE IN THE 1990s: A DECADE OF REFORMS, FISCAL IMBALANCE, AND DEBT," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002140, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  15. Protopapadakis, Aris A. & Siegel, Jeremy J., 1987. "Are money growth and inflation related to government deficits? evidence from ten industrialized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 31-48, March.
  16. Sowa, Nii Kwaku, 1994. "Fiscal deficits, output growth and inflation targets in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1105-1117, August.
  17. Fatih Ozatay, 2000. "The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 327-352.
  18. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 389-439, October.
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  21. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
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