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La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales

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  • Martha Misas
  • Enrique López
  • Pablo Querubín

Abstract

A Statement of the Colombian Constitutional Court has mandated wage indexation on the basis of past inflation. A simple model with a wage price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting interest rule is calibrated to resemble price setting in the Colombian economy and to analize the differing slope of the output inflation trade oo for different specifications of wage indexation. The disinflation experiments the effect of monetary policy, and increases the cost of disinflation. Shorter wage contracts and more frequent wage negotiations do not appear to have important effects on the cost of disinflation. Higher central bank credibility and the use of forward looking inflation expectations in wage negotiations decrease the cost of disinflation and may eventually lead to a boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, 2002. "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:199
    DOI: 10.32468/be.199
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Melo, Luis F. & Loaiza, Rubén A. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2016. "Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts: The effects of a prior based on central banks’ estimates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 387-397.
    3. Ignacio Lozano, 2009. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian case," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 65-95, January-J.
    4. José Mauricio Salazar Sáenz, 2009. "Evaluación de pronóstico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 575, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Luis Fernando Melo & Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," Borradores de Economia 705, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Carlos A. Arango A. & Martha Misas A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández, 2004. "La Demanda de Especies Monetarias en Colombia: Estructura y Pronóstico," Borradores de Economia 309, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Héctor Mauricio Nuñez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    9. Martha A. Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2004. "No-linealidades en la demanda de efectivo en Colombia: las redes neuronales como herramienta de pronóstico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 10-57, June.
    10. Norberto Rodríguez & Patricia Siado, 2003. "Un Pronóstico No Paramétrico De La Inflación Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003691, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    11. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004247, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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