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La Inflación Desde Una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* Para Colombia




El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar un modelo monetario para el pronóstico de la inflación en Colombia. El modelo teórico que sirve como base del ejercicio empírico se conoce en la literatura como P*. Este modelo es una versión formalizada de la percepción según la cual la inflación en el largo plazo tiene un origen monetario.

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Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): 35 (May)
Pages: 5-53

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005392
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  1. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, 1998. "Análisis del comportamiento de la inflación trimestral en Colombia bajo cambios de régimen: Una evidencia a través del modelo "Switching" de Hamilton," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, November.
  2. Lee, Jim, 1999. "Alternative P* Models of Inflation Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 312-25, April.
  3. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
  5. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  6. Bordo, Michael D & Jonung, Lars & Siklos, Pierre L, 1997. "Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 710-24, October.
  7. Misas Arango, Martha & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 1995. "P-estrella en Colombia : un punto de vista sobre la inflacion," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 42, pages 107-132, Enero Jun.
  8. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
  11. Atta-Mensah, J, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," NBER Working Papers 7178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, EconWPA.
  14. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  15. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  16. Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Cointegración, exogeneidad y Crítica de Lucas: Funciones de Demanda de Dinero en Colombia: Un ejercicio más," Borradores de Economia 075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  17. Siklos, P.L., 1991. "Income Velocity and Institutional Change: Some New Time Series Evidence, 1870-1986," Working Papers 91150, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  18. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1995. "Money is what money predicts: the M* model of the price level," Research Working Paper 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Elkin Castaño & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Métodos de Combinación de Pronósticos: Una Aplicación a la Inflación Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 109, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  21. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA.
  22. Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
  23. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
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