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La Inflación Desde Una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* Para Colombia

  • MARTHA MISAS A.

    ()

  • ENRIQUE LÓPEZ
  • LUIS FERNANDO MELO

El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar un modelo monetario para el pronóstico de la inflación en Colombia. El modelo teórico que sirve como base del ejercicio empírico se conoce en la literatura como P*. Este modelo es una versión formalizada de la percepción según la cual la inflación en el largo plazo tiene un origen monetario.

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File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ensayos/pdf/espe_035-1.pdf
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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): 35 (May)
Pages: 5-53

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005392
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  1. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Does the P* Model provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," Seminar Papers 671, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  3. Misas Arango, Martha & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 1995. "P-estrella en Colombia : un punto de vista sobre la inflacion," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 42, pages 107-132, Enero Jun.
  4. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  5. Bordo, Michael D & Jonung, Lars & Siklos, Pierre L, 1997. "Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 710-24, October.
  6. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1999. "Un Examen Empirico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003676, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, EconWPA.
  10. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  11. Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "Income Velocity and Institutional Change: Some New Time Series Evidence, 1870-1986," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 377-92, August.
  12. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, . "Análisis del Comportamiento de la Inflación Trimestral en Colombia Bajo Cambios de Régimen: Una Evidencia a Través del Modelo: "Switching" de Hamilton," Borradores de Economia 086, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Gregory D. Hess & Charles S. Morris, 1995. "Money is what money predicts: the M* model of the price level," Research Working Paper 95-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Staff Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.
  15. Lee, Jim, 1999. "Alternative P* Models of Inflation Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 312-25, April.
  16. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA.
  17. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
  18. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  19. Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Cointegración, exogeneidad y Crítica de Lucas: Funciones de Demanda de Dinero en Colombia: Un ejercicio más," Borradores de Economia 075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  20. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
  21. Elkin Castaño & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Métodos de Combinación de Pronósticos: Una Aplicación a la Inflación Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 109, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  22. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
  23. Atta-Mensah, J, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
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