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Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Eliana González Molano
  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia
  • Anderson Grajales Olarte

Abstract

En países como Colombia en donde se sigue una estrategia de inflación objetivo es fundamental para el Banco Central contar con buenos modelos para pronosticar la inflación. En este documento se comparan los pronósticos de inflación obtenidos a partir de un modelo de Curva de Phillips usando dos metodologías diferentes: pronósticos directos y pronósticos iterativos (tradicionales) para una muestra trimestral entre 1988 y 2007. Los pronósticos directos están basados en estimaciones OLS, mientras que los iterativos lo están en estimaciones tanto por OLS como por mínimos cuadrados flexibles. Los resultados encontrados muestran que al utilizar el mismo método de estimación, OLS, el error de pronóstico de la metodología directa es menor que el de la iterativa en el mediano plazo. Sin embargo, los pronósticos iterativos generados con la metodología de mínimos cuadrados flexibles superan a los directos - OLS.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 458, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:458
    DOI: 10.32468/be.458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo M. Sánchez & Luis Fernando Melo, 2013. "Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(72), pages 74-82, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pronósticos directos; pronósticos iterativos; mínimos cuadrados flexibles.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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