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Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana

  • Eliana González Molano


  • Luis Fernando Melo Velandia


  • Anderson Grajales Olarte


En países como Colombia en donde se sigue una estrategia de inflación objetivo es fundamental para el Banco Central contar con buenos modelos para pronosticar la inflación. En este documento se comparan los pronósticos de inflación obtenidos a partir de un modelo de Curva de Phillips usando dos metodologías diferentes: pronósticos directos y pronósticos iterativos (tradicionales) para una muestra trimestral entre 1988 y 2007. Los pronósticos directos están basados en estimaciones OLS, mientras que los iterativos lo están en estimaciones tanto por OLS como por mínimos cuadrados flexibles. Los resultados encontrados muestran que al utilizar el mismo método de estimación, OLS, el error de pronóstico de la metodología directa es menor que el de la iterativa en el mediano plazo. Sin embargo, los pronósticos iterativos generados con la metodología de mínimos cuadrados flexibles superan a los directos - OLS.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 458.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:458
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  1. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, December.
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  8. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, 1999. "La Inflación Desde Una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, issue 35, pages 5-53, May.
  9. R. Bhansali, 1996. "Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 48(3), pages 577-602, September.
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