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Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales

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  • Luis Fernando Melo

    ()

  • Héctor Núñez

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se implementan diferentes metodologías de combinación de pronósticos para la inflación colombiana durante el período trimestral comprendido entre 1999:I y 2003:II. Los métodos de combinación propuestos permiten modelar cambios estructurales con el objeto de capturar el cambio de nivel de la inflación ocurrido en 1998 y 1999. Lo resultados obtenidos muestran que la metodología de Castaño y Melo (1998), que no considera cambios estructurales, sigue siendo apropiada para pronósticos de horizontes de 1,2 y 3 trimestres. Sin embargo, para horizontes mayores las metodologías de combinación que consideran cambios estructurales son las mejores, en el sentido de que tienen menor error cuadrático medio de predicción.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 286.

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