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Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

Abstract

Se presenta evidencia clara a favor de la hipótesis de que la estructura a plazo real contiene información sobre las expectativas de la actividad económica en Colombia para los plazos entre 6 y 12, 6 y 24, y 12 y 24 meses adelante. Los signos de los coeficientes estimados son, en todos los casos, los que predice la teoría. La capacidad de pronóstico del modelo es mejor para el período entre 6 y 12 meses adelante que para periodos superiores.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia," Borradores de Economia 302, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arango, Luis Eduardo & Flórez, Luz Adriana, 2008. "Tramo corto de la curva de rendimientos, cambio de régimen inflacionario y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(297), pages 183-210, enero-mar.
    2. Karim Parra, 2010. "Factores determinantes del margen entre la deuda corporativa y la deuda pública en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, November.
    3. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
    4. Diego Agudelo Rueda & Mónica Arango Arango, 2008. "La curva de rendimientos a plazo y las expectativas de tasas de interés en el mercado de renta fija en Colombia, 2002-2007," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estructura a plazo; spread de tasas de interés; expectativas de actividad económica; criterios de pronóstico.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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