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Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

Se presenta evidencia clara a favor de la hipótesis de que la estructura a plazo real contiene información sobre las expectativas de la actividad económica en Colombia para los plazos entre 6 y 12, 6 y 24, y 12 y 24 meses adelante. Los signos de los coeficientes estimados son, en todos los casos, los que predice la teoría. La capacidad de pronóstico del modelo es mejor para el período entre 6 y 12 meses adelante que para periodos superiores.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 302.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:302
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  1. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo corto de la estructura a plazo como predictor de expectativas de la actividad económica en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002559, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003138, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  7. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
  8. Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-93, February.
  9. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos V., 2003. "A Leading Index For The Colombian Economic Activity," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001920, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  11. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
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