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Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo

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  • Héctor Mauricio Nuñez Amortegui

    ()

Abstract

Based on the understanding of inflation forecasts as an intermediate policy objective, this paper evaluates forecasts of different inflation models in Colombia during the inflation targeting (IT) period. The evaluation is done using three different statistical methodologies. The results suggest that the best models, in terms of precision, are the Food´s Relative Price and the traditional P* models. Additionally, a multiplier analysis is performed over these models, in which the sensitivity of short and medium term forecasts to shocks in the exogenous variables is assessed

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File URL: http://www.urosario.edu.co/FASE1/economia/documentos/v8n2_Nunez.pdf
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Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003709
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Keywords: inflación objetivo; pronósticos de inflación; pruebas para evaluación de pronósticos; análisis de multiplicadores;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
  • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Elkin Castaño & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Métodos de Combinación de Pronósticos: Una Aplicación a la Inflación Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 109, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  3. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, . "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  5. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  6. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  7. Luis Fernando melo V. & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a traves de Minimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  9. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521423083 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 325-31, May.
  13. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1997. "A framework for the analysis of moderate inflations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 45-65, June.
  15. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, 1998. "Análisis del comportamiento de la inflación trimestral en Colombia bajo cambios de régimen: Una evidencia a través del modelo "Switching" de Hamilton," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  16. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521411462 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  19. Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  20. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
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