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Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo

  • Héctor Mauricio Nuñez Amortegui

    ()

Based on the understanding of inflation forecasts as an intermediate policy objective, this paper evaluates forecasts of different inflation models in Colombia during the inflation targeting (IT) period. The evaluation is done using three different statistical methodologies. The results suggest that the best models, in terms of precision, are the Food´s Relative Price and the traditional P* models. Additionally, a multiplier analysis is performed over these models, in which the sensitivity of short and medium term forecasts to shocks in the exogenous variables is assessed

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File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/1032/931
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Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO in its journal REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000151:003709
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  1. Martha Misas A. & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, 1999. "La Inflación Desde Una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, issue 35, pages 5-53, May.
  2. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
  3. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  6. Luis Fernando melo V. & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a traves de Minimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 282, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 1998. "Un examen empírico de la curva de Phillips en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 39-87, Diciembre.
  8. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, June.
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  10. Ball, L. & Mankiw, G.H., 1992. "Relative-Price Change as Aggregate Supply Shocks," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1609, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Marvin Goodfriend, 1997. "A framework for the analysis of moderate inflations," Working Paper 97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  12. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Pablo Querubín, . "La Inflación en Colombia: Una Aproximación desde las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 199, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Elkin Castaño V. & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 1998. "Métodos De Combinación De Pronósticos:Una Aplicación A La Inflación Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003212, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  14. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  15. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, . "Análisis del Comportamiento de la Inflación Trimestral en Colombia Bajo Cambios de Régimen: Una Evidencia a Través del Modelo: "Switching" de Hamilton," Borradores de Economia 086, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  16. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, June.
  18. Munir A. Jalil & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Una Relación no Líneal entre Inflación y los Medios de Pago," Borradores de Economia 145, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  19. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1997. "Time Series and Dynamic Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521423083, November.
  20. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  21. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  22. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
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