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Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Gomez, Miguel I.
  • Gonzalez, Eliana
  • Melo, Luis F.
  • Torres, Jose L.

Abstract

Replaced with revised version of paper 11/17/06. Former title: Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21181
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21181
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003246, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Martha Alicia Misas Arango, 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003244, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Tombini, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brasil: Shocks. Backward-Looking Prices and IMF Conditionality," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 13, pages 539-582 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, 2004. "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
    9. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
    10. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    13. Revankar, Nagesh S & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 1990. "An 'Expanded Equation' Approach to Weak-Exogeneity Tests in Structural Systems and a Monetary Application," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 173-177, February.
    14. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    16. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Coulson, N.E. & Robins, R.P., 1989. "Forecast Combination In A Dynamic Setting," Papers 8-88-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    18. Yutaka Kurihara, 2005. "Why do EU countries use inflation targeting?," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 74-84.
    19. Rachel Lomax, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models, Forecasts, and Hunches," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(3), pages 251-265, September.
    20. Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 29-47.
    21. Frederick L. Joutz, 1997. "Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1681-1685.
    22. John M. Urbanchuk, 1997. "Commodity Markets, Farm-Retail Spreads, and Macroeconomic Condition Assumptions in Food Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1677-1680.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Inflation; Time Series; Forecast Combination; Inflation Targeting; Financial Economics; C22; E31; Q11;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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