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Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Shocks, Backward-Looking Prices, and IMF Conditionality

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  • Joel Bogdanski
  • Paulo Springer de Freitas
  • Ilan Goldfajn
  • Alexandre Antonio Tombini

Abstract

This paper examines the recent evolution of monetary policy since the adoption of formal inflation targeting in Brazil. We argue that the new policy framework has been subject to a severe test in its first years of existence, represented by external shocks - oil prices, and increased international financial volatility. Moreover, we examine some selected issues that deserve due consideration given their importance to the conduct of monetary policy. The first issue is the presence of a substantial portion of prices with backward-looking adjustment, a fact that affects monetary policy reaction since it reduces the efficiency of domestic interest rates in controlling inflation. The second addresses the question of how inflation targets should be monitored in a country that has an ongoing economic program with the International Monetary Fund. This last issue is particularly important when considering the effects of shortening monitoring horizons on the variability of inflation and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Shocks, Backward-Looking Prices, and IMF Conditionality," Working Papers Series 24, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:24
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    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps24.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christian Glocker & Pascal Towbin, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Reserve Requirements," WIFO Working Papers 420, WIFO.
    3. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    4. Nogueira Jr., Reginaldo P. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "Fear of Floating in Brazil: Did Inflation Targeting matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 255-266, December.
    5. Jérôme Sgard, 2010. "Money Reconstructed: Argentina and Brazil after Hyperinflation," Working Papers hal-00972721, HAL.
    6. Fabio Kanczuk, 2003. "Supply Shocks and Inflation Targeting," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] b01, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Ferro, Gustavo, 2007. "Metas de inflación ¿qué hay de nuevo bajo el sol?
      [Inflation Targeting. What's new under the sun?]
      ," MPRA Paper 15069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2008.

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