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Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility

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  • MINELLA André
  • DE FREITAS Paulo Springer
  • GOLDFAJN Ilan
  • KFOURY MUINHOS Marcelo

Abstract

This paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The confidence crisis in the future performance of the Brazilian economy and the increase in risk aversion in international markets were responsible for a sudden stop of capital inflows in 2002 that caused a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. The inflation-targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization. We stress two important challenges: construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence; and iv) the exchange rate pass-through for "administered or monitored" prices is two times higher than for "market" prices.
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  • MINELLA André & DE FREITAS Paulo Springer & GOLDFAJN Ilan & KFOURY MUINHOS Marcelo, 2010. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," EcoMod2003 330700103, EcoMod.
  • Handle: RePEc:ekd:003307:330700103
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