IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/64.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos
  • Sergio Afonso Lago Alves

Abstract

This paper presents a medium-scale structural model for the Brazilian economy with more than 30 equations. The potential output is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function and the demand side is divided in estimated equation for: consumption of the families, investment in machinery and construction, government spending and net exports. The estimated Phillips curve has two interesting features: dummies for the structural break in the pass-through and also a term that includes labor productivity on the Phillips equation. An algorithm to run the model with a model consistent forward-looking term in the Phillips curve is implemented. There are long-run equilibrium conditions for the external and fiscal debts and also for the real interest rate. External and supply shocks hit the medium-size model to generate impulse responses in order to compare with small-scale structural models.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps64.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    2. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sergio R. Da C. Werlang, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-23, January-J.
    3. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2001. "Avaliação das Projeções do Modelo Estrutural do Banco Central do Brasil para a Taxa de Variação do IPCA," Working Papers Series 16, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Fabio Araujo, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity with Fundamentals: A Brazilian Exchange Rate Forecast Model," Working Papers Series 19, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sérgio Afonso Lago Alves & Gil Riella, 2002. "Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio," Working Papers Series 42, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    3. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    5. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2004. "Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 81, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 183-207, July-Dece.
    8. Benjamin Miranda Tabak. Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Victorio Yi Tson Chu, 2002. "Credit Channel with Sovereign Credit Risk: an Empirical Test," Working Papers Series 51, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2001. "Estimando o Produto Potencial Brasileiro: Uma Abordagem de Função de Produção," Working Papers Series 17, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Ferreira, Roberto Tatiwa & Castelar, Ivan, 2011. "Modelos Lineares e Não Lineares da Curva de Phillips para Previsão da Taxa de Inflação no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    17. Marcelo Y. Takami & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 135, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Wilson Corrêa & Sidney Caetano, 2013. "Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, August.
    19. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    20. Ricardo Schechtman, 2017. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 235-282, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.