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Modelos lineares e não lineares da curva de Phillips para previsão da taxa de Inflação no Brasil

  • Elano Ferreira Arruda

    (CAEN/UFC)

  • Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira

    (CAEN/UFC)

  • Ivan Castelar

    (CAEN/UFC)

No abstract is available for this item.

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File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2008/artigos/200807211607140-.pdf
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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 200807211607140.

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Date of creation: 2008
Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807211607140
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Gragoatá Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil

Phone: 55 21 3674 7952
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Web page: http://www.anpec.org.br
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  1. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  3. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  5. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Herman Bierens & Ivan Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian GDP Growth Rate With Linear and NonLinear Diffusion Index Models," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 6(3), pages 261-292.
  6. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
  7. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models : A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 663, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  9. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  10. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  11. Arnildo da Silva Correa & André Minella, 2006. "Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Working Papers Series 122, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Fabio Rumler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, "undated". "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time Series Models to Forecast Inflation," EcoMod2007 23900080, EcoMod.
  13. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
  14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334, December.
  15. G. Ascari & E. Marrocu, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models," Working Paper CRENoS 200307, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  16. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
  17. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-25, August.
  18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  19. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  20. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Phelps, Edmund S, 1969. "The New Microeconomics in Inflation and Employment Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 147-160, May.
  22. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
  23. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H.-M., 1997. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 489, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  24. Caesar Lack, 2006. "Forecasting Swiss inflation using VAR models," Economic Studies 2006-02, Swiss National Bank.
  25. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  26. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guillén, 2004. "Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap For Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  27. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 1998. "Monetary Policy with a Convex Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," IMF Working Papers 98/21, International Monetary Fund.
  28. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  30. Dionísio Dias Carneiro & André Monteiro D´Almeida Monteiro & Thomas Wu, 2002. "Mecanismos não-lineares de repasse cambial para o IPCA," Textos para discussão 462, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  31. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2008. "Linear and threshold forecasts of output and inflation using stock and housing prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 131-151.
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