IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Nonlinear Mechanisms of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Phillips Curve Model with Threshold for Brazil

Listed author(s):
  • Correa, Arnildo da Silva
  • Minella, André

This paper investigates the presence of nonlinear mechanisms of the pass-through from exchange rate to inflation in Brazil. In particular, it estimates a Phillips curve with a threshold for the pass-through. The paper examines whether the short-run magnitude of the pass-through is affected by the business cycle, direction and magnitude of the exchange rate change, and volatility of the exchange rate. The results indicate that the short-run pass-through is higher when the economy is booming, when the exchange rate depreciates above some threshold and when the exchange rate volatility is lower.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rbe/article/view/946
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its journal Revista Brasileira de Economia.

Volume (Year): 64 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages:

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:64:y:2010:i:3:a:946
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Praia de Botafogo 190, sala 1100, Rio de Janeiro/RJ - CEP: 22253-900

Phone: 55-21-2559-5871
Fax: 55-21-2553-8821
Web page: http://epge.fgv.br
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Terui, Nobuhiko & van Dijk, Herman K., 2002. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 421-438.
  2. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
  3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  4. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2004. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(2), November.
  5. Eui Jung Chang & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2002. "Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model," Working Papers Series 50, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Tambakis Demosthenes N., 1999. "Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Asymmetric Loss," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
  7. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1992. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 395-431, June.
  8. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2004. "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers 2003-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Alves, Sergio A Lago & Bugarin, Mirta N S, 2006. "The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 128, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
  14. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Areosa, Marta B.M., 2016. "The inequality channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 214-230.
  15. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  16. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sérgio Afonso Lago Alves & Gil Riella, 2002. "Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio," Working Papers Series 42, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David & Tambakis, Demosthenes, 1999. "The U.S. Phillips curve: The case for asymmetry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1459-1485, September.
  18. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
  19. Saeid Mahdavi, 2002. "The response of the US export prices to changes in the dollar's effective exchange rate: further evidence from industry level data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(17), pages 2115-2125.
  20. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Functions on the Central Bank," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Getúlio Borges da Silveira & Octavio Bessada, 2003. "Análise de componentes principais de dados funcionais - uma aplicação às estruturas a termo de taxas de juros," Working Papers Series 73, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  22. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  23. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  24. Alan Cosme Rodrigues da Silva & João Maurício de Souza Moreira & Myriam Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2006. "Avaliação de Modelos de Exigência de Capital para Risco de Mercado do Cupom Cambial," Working Papers Series 111, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  25. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
  26. Schaling, Eric, 2004. "The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targeting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 361-386, June.
  27. Arnildo da Silva Correa, 2003. "Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina," Working Papers Series 80, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  28. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  29. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  30. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  31. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  32. Eduardo A. S. Rodrigues & Victorio Chu & Leonardo S. Alencar & Tony Takeda, 2006. "O Efeito da Consignação em Folha nas Taxas de Juros dos Empréstimos Pessoais," Working Papers Series 108, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  33. Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2000. "Exchange rates and European countries’ export prices: An empirical test for asymmetries in pricing to market behavior," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 1-23, March.
  34. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  35. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2006. "Investigação da Memória de Longo Prazo na Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
  36. Kenichi Ohno, 1989. "Export Pricing Behavior of Manufacturing: A U.S.: Japan Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 550-579, September.
  37. Ryan A. Compton & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching," Working Papers Series 97, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  38. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  39. Nobay, A. R. & Peel, D. A., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 159-164, May.
  40. Ricardo Schechtman, 2006. "A Central de Risco de Crédito no Brasil: uma análise de utilidade de informação," Working Papers Series 119, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  41. Michael P. Clements & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Asymmetric output-gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 359-374, September.
  42. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  43. Caner, Mehmet, 2002. "A Note On Least Absolute Deviation Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 800-814, June.
  44. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  45. Dupasquier, Chantal & Ricketts, Nicholas, 1998. "Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada," Staff Working Papers 98-14, Bank of Canada.
  46. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  47. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:64:y:2010:i:3:a:946. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da FGV/EPGE)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.