IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/131.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza
  • Benjamin M. Tabak
  • Daniel O. Cajueiro

Abstract

In this work we measure the evolution of the long-range dependence phenomenon of returns and volatilities of nominal British exchange rates (British pound against US dollar) futures contracts negotiated on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1986 to 2004. The measurement employs the R/S classic analysis, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and Generalized Hurst exponents, upon a 1008-observation window, which moves along the data. We obtain as a result, the effects of the 1992 European financial crises on the measurements of the long-range dependency phenomenon. After the crisis the returns of this futures contract showed no signs of the long-range memory, which existed before the crisis. The volatility presented moderate long-range memory the whole time. We also test for long-memory in European currencies inside the European Monetary System and find evidence of moderate long memory, which suggests that being inside the EMS increases predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2007. "Long-Range Dependence in Exchange Rates: the case of the European Monetary System," Working Papers Series 131, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps131.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    2. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Tombini, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brasil: Shocks. Backward-Looking Prices and IMF Conditionality," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 13, pages 539-582, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Tarsila Segalla Afanasieff & Priscilla Maria Villa Lhacer & Márcio I. Nakane, 2002. "The Determinants of Bank Interest Spread in Brazil," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 183-207, July-Dece.
    4. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2001. "Os Impactos Econômicos da CPMF: Teoria e Evidência," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation Measures for Brazil," Working Papers Series 14, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Roberta Blass Staub, 2001. "Algumas Considerações Sobre a Sazonalidade no IPCA," Working Papers Series 31, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Decentralized Portfolio Management," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 1(2), pages 243-270.
    8. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. De Mello, 2008. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazilian Payroll Loans," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 155-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nakane, Marcio I. & Weintraub, Daniela B., 2005. "Bank privatization and productivity: Evidence for Brazil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2259-2289, August.
    10. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2002. "Multifractality In Asset Returns: Theory And Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 381-406, August.
    12. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2004. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(2), November.
    13. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2003. "A practical log-linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 665-678.
    14. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Eui Jung Chang & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Joanílio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2002. "Macroeconomic Coordination and Inflation Targeting in a Two-Country Model," Working Papers Series 50, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    17. Victorio Yi Tson Chu, 2002. "Credit Channel with Sovereign Credit Risk: an Empirical Test," Working Papers Series 51, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2001. "Avaliação das Projeções do Modelo Estrutural do Banco Central do Brasil para a Taxa de Variação do IPCA," Working Papers Series 16, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2003. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 19-43.
    21. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2003. "A practical log-linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 665-678.
    22. Ricardo Schechtman, 2006. "Uma Investigação Baseada em Reamostragem sobre Requerimentos de Capital para Risco de Crédito no Brasil," Working Papers Series 127, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Ronald Otto Hillbrecht, 2003. "Ciclos Internacionais de Negócios: uma Análise de Mudança de Regime Markoviano para Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] b47, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    24. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "The Effects of the Brazilian ADRs Program on Domestic Market Efficiency," Working Papers Series 43, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    25. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    26. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    27. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2006. "Investigação da Memória de Longo Prazo na Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
    28. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    29. A. Lago Alves & Mirta N. S. Bugarin, 2006. "The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity," Working Papers Series 121, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    30. Ryan A. Compton & Jose Ricardo da Costa & Silva, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching," Working Papers Series 97, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    31. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. de Mello, 2006. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans," Working Papers Series 102, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    32. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    33. Luiz Fernando Figueiredo & Pedro Fachada & Sérgio Goldenstein, 2002. "Public debt management and open market operations in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 81-85, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. André Minella, 2002. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Gains from Commitment, and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers Series 45, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    35. Mauricio S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on ‘Market discipline and monetary policy’ by Carl Walsh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 732-739, October.
    36. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    37. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Orlando Carneiro de Matos, 2002. "Desenvolvimento do Sistema Financeiro e Crescimento Econômico no Brasil: Evidências de Causalidade," Working Papers Series 49, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    39. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    40. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "The Random Walk Hypothesis and the Behavior of Foreign Capital Portfolio Flows: the Brazilian Stock Market Case," Working Papers Series 58, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    41. Theodore M. Barnhill & Marcos R. Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "An Analysis of Off-Site Supervision of Banks' Profitability, Risk and Capital Adequacy: a portfolio simulation approach applied to brazilian banks," Working Papers Series 117, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    42. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Areosa, Marta B.M., 2016. "The inequality channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 214-230.
    43. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    44. Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?," Working Papers Series 15, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    45. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    46. Helio Mori & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2005. "Capital Flows Cycle: Stylized Facts and Empirical Evidences for Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 98, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    47. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "The role of banks in the Brazilian interbank market: Does bank type matter?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6825-6836.
    48. Mirta Noemí Sataka Bugarin & Roberto de Goes Ellery Jr. & Victor Gomes Silva & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2005. "Steady State Analysis of an Open Economy General Equilibrium Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 92, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    49. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    50. Fabio Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & José Alvaro Rodrigues Neto, 2003. "r-filters: a Hodrick-Prescott Filter Generalization," Working Papers Series 69, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    51. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    52. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence For Brazil," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(08), pages 1377-1396.
    53. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    54. Christiane R. Albuquerque & Marcelo S. Portugal, 2006. "Testing Nonlinearities Between Brazilian Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatilities," Working Papers Series 106, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    55. Paulo Springer de Freitas & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2001. "A Simple Model for Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 18, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    56. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Política Monetária e Supervisão do Sistema Financeiro Nacional no Banco Central do Brasil," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    57. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    58. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    59. Alan Cosme Rodrigues da Silva & João Maurício de Souza Moreira & Myriam Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2003. "Avaliação de Modelos de Exigência de Capital para Risco de Mercado do Cupom Cambial," Working Papers Series 111, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    60. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    61. Eui Jung Chang & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2006. "Extração de Informação de Opções Cambiais no Brasil," Working Papers Series 104, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    62. Arnildo da Silva Correa, 2003. "Diferenças e Semelhanças entre Países da América Latina: Uma Análise de Markov Switching para os Ciclos Econômicos de Brasil e Argentina," Working Papers Series 80, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    63. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    64. Arminio Fraga & Daniel L. Gleizer, 2001. "Constrained Discretion and Collective Action Problems: Reflections on the Resolution of International Financial Crises," Working Papers Series 34, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    65. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    66. Benjamin Miranda Tabak Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America," Working Papers Series 56, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    67. Benjamin Miranda Tabak. Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    9. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2004. "Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 81, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Mauricio S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on ‘Market discipline and monetary policy’ by Carl Walsh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 732-739, October.
    12. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    17. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    18. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.