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Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America

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  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak Eduardo José Araújo Lima

Abstract

This paper analyzes causality and cointegration relationships among stock markets for Latin America and the United States. Within a simple framework causality and cointegration is tested for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela and the US. We found no evidence of cointegration among these stock markets but short-run causality could not be rejected. Furthermore, we use impulse response functions to analyze the relative impact of shocks in the US stock index (Dow Jones) on Latin American indexes. Evidence suggests that the responses differ significantly among these countries. These findings imply that there are valuable opportunities to international investors from diversifying in US and Latin American stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America," Working Papers Series 56, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:56
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    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihir Dash, 2017. "A Study of Granger Causality in Latin American Stock Markets," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 6(2), pages 82-88, May.
    2. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:1:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Shafiu ABDULLAHI, 2017. "Stock Market Linkage Financial Contagion and Assets Price Movements Evidence from Nigerian Stock Exchange," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 146-159.
    6. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Ceylan Onay & Gözde Ünal, 2012. "Cointegration and Extreme Value Analyses of Bovespa and the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 66-90, February.
    8. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    9. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2004. "Bank Competition, Agency Costs and the Performance of the Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 81, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Fernanda G Barba & Paulo S Ceretta, 2011. "Risk transmission between Latin America stock markets and the US: impacts of the 2007/2008 Crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1025-1037.
    12. Dr. Ranjan Dasgupta, 2014. "Integration and Dynamic Linkages of the Indian Stock Market with Bric - An Empirical Study," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 715-731, June.
    13. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    14. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Mauricio S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on ‘Market discipline and monetary policy’ by Carl Walsh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 732-739, October.
    16. Sergio Da Silva & Roberto Meurer & Caio Guttler, 2008. "Is the Brazilian stockmarket efficient?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16.
    17. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco Aur�LIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    18. Amanjot SINGH & Parneet KAUR, 2015. "Stock Market Linkages: Evidence From the US, China and India During the Subprime Crisis," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 137-162, June.
    19. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    24. Guttler, Caio & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2006. "Informational inefficiency of the Brazilian stockmarket," MPRA Paper 1980, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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