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Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak

Abstract

This paper examines the information content of COPOM decisions to change or to leave unchanged monetary policy by estimating the responses of the term structure to changes in the target for interest rates on COPOM meeting days. Within an event-study approach the evidence suggests that market participants anticipate, at least partially, monetary policy actions. Furthermore, it is found that the introduction of the floating exchange and inflation-targeting regime has had a dampening effect on interest rate surprises along the term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Monetary Policy Surprises and the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 70, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:70
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    File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps70.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:sbe:breart:v:24:y:2004:i:2:a:2712 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Brito, Ricardo D., 2002. "Regras Monetárias e Dinâmica Macroeconômica no Brasil: Uma Abordagem de Expectativas Racionais," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(4), October.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2001. "Is it Worth Tracking Dollar/Real Implied Volatility?," Working Papers Series 15, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sérgio Afonso Lago Alves & Gil Riella, 2002. "Modelo Estrutural com Setor Externo: Endogenização do Prêmio de Risco e do Câmbio," Working Papers Series 42, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2001. "Os Impactos Econômicos da CPMF: Teoria e Evidência," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Victorio Y. T. Chu & Márcio I. Nakane, 2001. "Credit Channel without the LM Curve," Working Papers Series 20, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation Measures for Brazil," Working Papers Series 14, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Roberta Blass Staub, 2001. "Algumas Considerações Sobre a Sazonalidade no IPCA," Working Papers Series 31, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Decentralized Portfolio Management," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 1(2), pages 243-270.
    11. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2003. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 1(1), pages 19-43.
    12. Charles Lima De Almeida & Marco AuréLIO Peres & Geraldo Da Silva E Souza & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "Optimal monetary rules: the case of Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 299-302, April.
    13. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2004. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(2), November.
    14. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2000. "An Information Theory Approach to the Aggregation of Log-Linear Models," Working Papers Series 4, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Paulo Coutinho & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2002. "Delegated Portfolio Management," Working Papers Series 60, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision Functions on the Central Bank," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Mauro Costa Miranda, 2001. "Crises Cambiais e Ataques Especulativos no Brasil," Working Papers Series 32, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "On the Information Content of Oil Future Prices," Working Papers Series 65, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Leonardo Soriano de Alencar & Márcio I. Nakane, 2003. "Real Balances in the Utility Function: Evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 68, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Eduardo José Araújo Lima, 2002. "Causality and Cointegration in Stock Markets: The Case of Latin America," Working Papers Series 56, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    24. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2011. "Metasde Inflação E Estrutura A Termo Das Taxas De Juros - Uma Análise Dainfluência Da Credibilidade Sobre O Spread Da Taxa De Juros De Longoprazo No Brasil," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 142, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. André Soares Loureiro & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Risk Premia for Emerging Markets Bonds: Evidence from Brazilian Government Debt, 1996-2002," Working Papers Series 85, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    5. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    6. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 584, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    7. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Márcio I. Nakane, 2006. "Comparing equilibrium real interest rates: different approaches to measure Brazilian rates," Working Papers Series 101, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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